MIAMI (27-7)
Kenpom #11 (#12 Offense / #36 Defense)
Big Wins: #37 Utah, #38 Butler, #28 Syracuse, #20 Duke, #35 Notre Dame (2x), #1 Virginia, #10 Louisville, #8 Wichita State.
Losses: #126 Northeastern, @ #1 Virginia, @ #48 Clemson, @#73 NC State, @ #3 North Carolina, @ # 57 Virginia Tech, #1 Virginia (neutral).
This team plays much better at home than on the road (all teams do but their splits are more dramatic).
17-1 Home
6-5 Away
4-1 Neutral
OFFENSE
Shot Distribution: 39% Rim / 27% Mid-Range / 33% 3pt
- Kenpom #12
- Play at a slow pace (#249), FYI Villanova is #266
- This team can shoot it, #30 eFG%.
- And their shot selection is efficient, minimizing mid-range shots.
- Shoot 37% from 3pt (#65)
- Shoot 40% in the mid-range and 63% at the rim. (#25 from 2pt overall)
- Take care of the ball (#63 in turnovers), rarely get blocked (#22), and don’t get pilfered often either (#74)
- Offensive rebound at an average rate 30.2% (#160)
- Get to the line at a good rate (#68)
- Where they are excellent from the FT line, shooting 75% (#24)
DEFENSE
Shot Distribution: 36% Rim / 34% Mid-Range / 30% 3pt
- Kenpom #36
- Do an excellent job limiting foul shots and three pointers
- #35 free throw rate
- #26 3pt field goal rate, and opponents shoot 33.6% against them (#114)
- Do not force many turnovers (#213)
- #159 in blocks and #110 in steals.
- Average defensive rebounding team (#139)
THE STARS
ANGEL RODRIGUEZ (5-11) SENIOR
Shot Distribution: 39% Rim / 10% Mid-Range / 52% 3pt
- Get to the rim, or shoot a three. Dramatic differences from 3pt from different areas of the court.
- Straw that stirs the drink, plays 75% of the game.
- Excellent assist rate (#111 / #1 in the ACC)
- Adept thief (#83 in steals / #3 in the ACC)
- Does not get to the line at a high rate, but knocks down FT’s at 80%
- Good 3pt shooter (33%) on high volume
- Turns the ball over at a relatively high rate (same as Booth & Brunson)
- Has been locked in, his 3pt% has been 47% during March and 63% eFG% overall
SHELDON MCCLELLAN (6-5) SENIOR
Shot Distribution: 35% Rim / 27% Mid-Range / 39% 3pt
- Efficient shot selection, good great from everywhere on the floor.
- Plays 82% of the game.
- #40 True Shooting percentage in basketball.
- Does not turn the ball over (#96)
- Draws fouls and gets to the line at a very high rate – where he shoots 84%
- Not much of a rebounder
- Shooting 39% from 3pt on high volume.
- Was the #4 offensive player in ACC conference play.
DAVON REED (6-6) JUNIOR
Shot Distribution: 29% Rim / 26% Mid-Range / 44% 3pt
- Plays 72% of the game.
- A 3pt shooter, who connects on 39%.
- Solid rebounder
- Shoots 81% from the line but does not draw many fouls.
- Has also hit another gear in March, shooting 45% from 3pt.
TONYE JEKIRI (7-0) SENIOR
Shot Distribution: 57% Rim / 40% Mid-Range / 3% 3pt
- Plays 71% of the game.
- Excellent rebounder (#99 Offensive / #68 Defensive)
- #324 in blocks
- Does not draw fouls
- Poor foul shooter (58%)
- Has a pretty good mid-range game, where he shoots 43%.
- Averages 4.2 fouls / 40 minutes
- Similar game in a lot of ways to Ochefu, and similarly important to keep out of foul trouble. Their next big man is the 6-8 Murphy.
JA’QUAN NEWTON (6-2) SOPH
Shot Distribution: 40% Rim / 48% Mid-Range / 12% 3pt
- Mr. Mid-Range.
- Converts 59% at the rim, 40% in the mid-range, and 35% from three (on very low volume, has not made a three in six weeks)
- Excellent assist rate
- Draws fouls at a very high rate and gets to the line often (goes to the hoop all the time), where he converts at 73%.
- 6th man, playing 50% of the game, but when he is in the game he’s gonna shoot it. Has the highest percentage of shots when in the game.
- The highest variance player on the team. Good Ja’Quan is very good, he put up 19 points and a monster ORating of 140 in the ACC tournament game against Virginia. But he can also struggle like he did against Wichita State when he put up 2 points.
KAMARI MURPHY (6-8) JUNIOR
Shot Distribution: 54% Rim / 41% Mid-Range / 5% 3pt
- Plays 56% of the game.
- Passive offensive player that does not get a lot of shots
- Excellent rebounder, especially defensive (#166)
- Solid shot blocker (#294)
- Not a good foul shooter (56%)
- Really only efficient at the rim (68%), shooting 31% in the mid-range.
This is a veteran team that starts three seniors and two juniors. Four guys (Rodriguez, McClellan, Reed, and Jekiri) will see major minutes, while Newton and Murphy will spell the guards and Reed/Jekiri respectively. The remaining 4 players on the roster have played limited to no roles down the stretch.
AROUND COLLEGE BB
- Let’s return again to the preseason poll. In order it was: UNC, Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Wichita State, Villanova. Of these top 11 teams only Wichita State and Kentucky have been eliminated. In a year where the narrative has been that college basketball is wide open, things look a lot like what was expected.
- Villanova last year was the Kenpom #6 overall (#4 Offense / #13 Defense) and a Pythagorean of .9504. This year the team is #4 overall (#9 Offense / #7 Defense) and a Pythagorean of .9442. So from an efficiency perspective last year’s team was better than this year. In fact the #1 team right now (Virginia) would have ranked 6th last year. The top teams this year are not as good as last year, but that isn’t the same thing as a “wide open” NCAA tournament.
- My buddy saw Mohammad Bamba and the rest of Westtown (or PSA wasn't sure) at the Iowa game. Four more 19 point wins should make him a Wildcat.
- Michigan State finished the year with the #1 Offense and #52 Defense. Similarly Kentucky finished with the #2 Offense and #51 Defense. You need to guard people too.
- Buddy Hield and Denzel Valentine led the Kenpom Player of the Year standing for pretty much the entire season. But Malcolm Brogdon now holds the top spot followed by Brice Johnson. UVA is the only team with two players in the top ten, the other is Gil at #7. Thomas Walkup moved up to #8, too bad nobody knew who he was before Friday.