20 games through the season (roughly) and the end of January is generally a good time to look at the potential NCAA tournament teams in your conference.
The Big East is really interesting this year. Here's how I see it now - I'm using the term "bubble" loosely to represent those teams that I think have shots to get in, but haven't secured a spot yet...some would probably be in today, but could fall off (or on) depending on the rest of the season:
LOCKS - VU, Xavier, Providence (1-3 in the conference standings as well)
BUBBLE - Creighton (14-6, 5-2), Georgetown (12-8, 5-2), Seton Hall (13-6, 3-4), Marquette (13-7, 3-5), Butler (13-6, 2-5)
NO - DePaul, St. John's
I think the conference probably gets max 5 bids given the attrition that will come. The bubble is where this conference gets very interesting. It seems like everyone on the bubble still has to play each other frequently.
Amazingly, Creighton may be in the best shape of all the bubble teams right now. The next two are winnable before they come to the Pavilion, and then the next 5-6 are all winnable before a terrible last two games (@X, @PC). Still, if Creighton can come away with 6-7 more wins, they would have a pretty decent shot.
GTown has a good win on its resume (@Xavier) and not much else, plus two really bad losses, potentially three if Monmouth goes south. Hoyas really can't afford more than 4-5 more losses before BET play. The remaining schedule includes PC twice, Butler twice, SHU twice, and X/Nova once each. 8 losses already is rough, but the Hoyas will have their chances.
The remaining teams are really trending downward. Seton Hall has two good wins (@PC, Wichita State), and has a relatively favorable schedule left, but has lost 4 of its last 5 and missed two big chances against Nova and X last week. Marquette righted the ship against SJU this weekend -- barely -- after three straight losses (including one at home to DePaul), but still has road games at X, SHU, Butler, and Creighton. Butler is in a world of hurt - a couple okay wins over Temple on a neutral court and at Cincinnati, but nothing else of note, and already five losses in BE play.
If you assume a team needs a 9-9 record to make the NCAA (not a lock, I know, but a pretty good barometer), it's hard to see more than 5 going. That said, five BE teams is 50% of the conference, which is not bad.
The Big East is really interesting this year. Here's how I see it now - I'm using the term "bubble" loosely to represent those teams that I think have shots to get in, but haven't secured a spot yet...some would probably be in today, but could fall off (or on) depending on the rest of the season:
LOCKS - VU, Xavier, Providence (1-3 in the conference standings as well)
BUBBLE - Creighton (14-6, 5-2), Georgetown (12-8, 5-2), Seton Hall (13-6, 3-4), Marquette (13-7, 3-5), Butler (13-6, 2-5)
NO - DePaul, St. John's
I think the conference probably gets max 5 bids given the attrition that will come. The bubble is where this conference gets very interesting. It seems like everyone on the bubble still has to play each other frequently.
Amazingly, Creighton may be in the best shape of all the bubble teams right now. The next two are winnable before they come to the Pavilion, and then the next 5-6 are all winnable before a terrible last two games (@X, @PC). Still, if Creighton can come away with 6-7 more wins, they would have a pretty decent shot.
GTown has a good win on its resume (@Xavier) and not much else, plus two really bad losses, potentially three if Monmouth goes south. Hoyas really can't afford more than 4-5 more losses before BET play. The remaining schedule includes PC twice, Butler twice, SHU twice, and X/Nova once each. 8 losses already is rough, but the Hoyas will have their chances.
The remaining teams are really trending downward. Seton Hall has two good wins (@PC, Wichita State), and has a relatively favorable schedule left, but has lost 4 of its last 5 and missed two big chances against Nova and X last week. Marquette righted the ship against SJU this weekend -- barely -- after three straight losses (including one at home to DePaul), but still has road games at X, SHU, Butler, and Creighton. Butler is in a world of hurt - a couple okay wins over Temple on a neutral court and at Cincinnati, but nothing else of note, and already five losses in BE play.
If you assume a team needs a 9-9 record to make the NCAA (not a lock, I know, but a pretty good barometer), it's hard to see more than 5 going. That said, five BE teams is 50% of the conference, which is not bad.
