Butler Preview

[ONIN2TO]

Kenpom #43 (#16 Offense / #130 Defense)

18-8

Good Wins: #30 Cincinnati, #88 Tennessee, #4 Purdue, @#31 Seton Hall, #45 Creighton

Losses: #10 Miami, #54 Providence (home & away), #9 Xavier (home & away), @#45 Creighton, @#106 Marquette.


SINCE WE LEFT THEM

• Butler is 6-4 since we last played them, with notable wins at Seton Hall and at home against Creighton.
• But they also lost at Marquette, at Creighton, and missed opportunities to take down Xavier and Providence.
• The offense has stepped back a hair, but the defense has improved substantially, but still is ranked #130

OFFENSE

Shot Distribution: 36% Rim / 34% Mid-range / 30% Three

• This is an elite offense (#16)
• They are the #89 2pt shooting team
• #47 3pt shooting team (38%)
• Don’t turn it over (#11)
• Never turn it over via the steal (#5)
• They don’t shoot too many threes and they get to the line at an average rate.
• An unusually low assist rate of 52% considering they are an elite offense. (Average is 53% and Villanova is 60%)

DEFENSE

Shot Distribution: 32% Rim / 30% Mid-Range / 38% Three

• Defense is improved, but still not a strength (#130)
• Nothing jumps out as exceptional good or bad, this team is just a little above average defensively.

THE STARS

ROOSEVELT JONES (6-4) Senior

Shot Distribution: 54% Rim / 46% Mid-Range / 0% Three

• Most interesting shot chart in the game
• Shouting report is same as always… plays huge minutes, shoots an unbelievable number of shots, gets the free throw line at a high rate.
• Believe it or not all of his stats are up this year… shooting 48% from two and 72% from the line (previously a struggle for him).
• Drink every time the announcer says he has “old man game” (or don’t you’ll be hammered in the first half)
• Game is also more well rounded this year, in conference he is #8 in assist rate, #7 in steals rate, #18 in defensive rebounding… all while playing 87% of the game.
• With the struggles of Tyler Lewis, it’s Jones running the offense a lot of the time for this team.
• Make him shoot the floater or spot up, he only shoots 34% Mid-Range verses 60% at the rim.
  
  KELLEN DUNHAM (6-6) Senior

Shot Distribution: 19% Rim / 28% Mid-Range / 54% Three

• An unconscionable shooter
• Last time we played he was shooting only 33% from three, but is now all the way up to 41% (and on the same volume as Jenkins). He has shot 53% since our last meeting. The #1 3pt shooter in the Big East.
• Playing 79% of the game.
• Happy he is a senior and he won’t light us up anymore.

KELAN MARTIN (6-6) Soph

Shot Distribution: 31% Rim / 43% Mid-Range / 27% Three

• A budding star with a well-rounded game
• Taking the most shots in the Big East
• Shooting 41% from three
• Excellent rebounder #13 offensive & #6 defensive in conference
• Draws tons of fouls (#13 in BE)
• Shoots an excellent 84% from FT in conference
• Has had 7 games of 20+ points but had his worst game of the year against Villanova last time, only scoring 2pts.

TYLER LEWIS (5-11) Junior

Shot Distribution: 24% Rim / 29% Mid-Range / 47% Three

• Transfer from NC State, where in two years he never got into a game.
• Minutes have really gone down as the season has progressed.
• Shoots a tone of threes (47% of his shots)

• They beat Purdue, who is still the #1 Defense in the nation and scored 1.03 points per possession. Take them seriously for this reason, but not too seriously, Purdue is a very simple offense to scout / disrupt.
• One of the few teams we will generally be taller than, but keep in mind that they are the 56th best offensive rebounding team.
• Getting very little out of their bench this year (#304 in bench minutes)

AROUND COLLEGE BB

• Maryland finally goes down. Even better, Minnesota was ranked #180 going into the game. For some perspective, DePaul is #179 and St. Johns #234.
• Rutgers now has sole possession of the worst team in the BIG10.
• Testing the no good teams narrative… Villanova maintains the top spot in Kenpom, however they would have ranked as the #7 team in basketball last year, one spot behind last year’s Villanova team. Additionally the #50 team this year would have ranked #41 last year... the difference in quality between #1 and #50 really has flattened out significantly.
• Villanova has the 2nd highest efficiency at the rim, behind only UNC.
• For all the talk about how amazing Villanova is in the Mid-Range, we are only converting at 38% which is #37 in the country.
• Guard U defends the hoop 10th best in the country.
• Villanova is very good defending the entire court really… except for corner threes, where we rank #89 and allow opponents to shoot 41%.

 

[MD78]

This is premium content. Please subscribe to view.