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CoPhillies offseason

Velazquez will be a rotation staple for years. The question is whether he will be very good or just solid/good. But he's definitely a guy you can build around. As are Nola, Thompson and it appears Eickhoff. Methinks they may now decide to go with the high school arm Jason Groome #1 instead of A.J Puk or Hansen, the more ready college guys. By all accounts Groome has Kershaw-like upside whereas Puk and Hansen, while very good prospects are more finished products.
 
The Phillies haven't been tanking for 3 years. They've just been naively failing with pricey aging veterans. The tank began full force this year. Even then, their payroll was higher than the 4 teams that made the ALCS & NLCS. $60M to the dead wood of Lee/Howard/Utley was a big help. As was a partial year of Hamels. And in baseball, you have to actively try to get promising players in your system while tanking. I guess the NBA equivalent is stockpiling conditional second rounders and rights to random Euros that are stuck in their contracts.
 
The Phillies have been tanking the past three years. So they're off by a year. Trading Giles is like trading MCW - a nice young player who isn't a star. Just because the Phillies payroll was higher didn't mean they were tanking. When you trade away Pence and Victorino, then Rollins, then the moves last year and are playing guys like Cody Asche every day it means you're tanking. They haven't been a big time player in Free Agency in three off seasons.
 
The Phillies haven't been tanking for 3 years. The problem is THEY SHOULDVE BEEN. They held onto Utley and Rollins for 2-3 yrs too long when it was clear they needed to implode the whole thing then. They would be further into this rebuild now if they had because they would've gotten an actual return for Utley and Rollins and not the junk they dumped them for instead. Howard hasn't been movable since he signed that deal so there's nothing they could do there. They were able to get good value back for Hamels because they moved him in his prime. Now Utley and Rollins weren't in their prime a few yrs ago but they were still valuable. This year it was evident they had nothing left. And that was illustrated in the return in trades.
 
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Utley was not moveable 2 or 3 years earlier because of his degenerative knee injury issues that caused him to miss long indefinite stretches in some of those years, especially with more years on his deal at the time and all that uncertainty.

In any case, you need WAY MORE pieces to build a successful baseball team than an NBA team, and it's not like the NFL where the average career is very short for top guys at many positions. Just the bullpen requires at least three foundational pieces, plus a couple situational guys. I'm not completely against tanking in the NBA, or any sport in the right circumstances. Giles was a piece who would've been under club control through the tanking window, and regardless, drafting a couple spots higher is nowhere near as significant as in the NBA the average year.

Look at the Nationals -- they were able to draft probably the best projected hitter and pitcher to come through the draft in the last 10-12 years and hit on some other players, but all they have to show for it is a couple 1st round playoff exits.

If the data is out there that a power arm like Giles is unlikely to last more than 2 or 3 more years (or there is some particularized PED or injury risk you know about), ok, trade him--though it seems to me that a lot of power arms do last even if they lose some velocity over time. But I would've tried to hold out for more than a package headlined by a guy who if everything breaks right projects as a No. 3 starter. Maybe wait until people get more desperate? Despite the denials by some on here, the Phillies seemed to get a better return for Hamels by waiting for the trade deadline rather than doing it in the offseason.

Does anyone think this deal was too good to pass up? I haven't heard anyone sell the merits of this trade in terms of the assets they got beyond some general Hinkie-inspired love for the fact that they traded him.
 
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Utley was not moveable 2 or 3 years earlier because of his degenerative knee injury issues that caused him to miss long indefinite stretches in some of those years, especially with more years on his deal at the time and all that uncertainty.

In any case, you need WAY MORE pieces to build a successful baseball team than an NBA team, and it's not like the NFL where the average career is very short for top guys at many positions. Just the bullpen requires at least three foundational pieces, plus a couple situational guys. I'm not completely against tanking in the NBA, or any sport in the right circumstances. Giles was a piece who would've been under club control through the tanking window, and regardless, drafting a couple spots higher is nowhere near as significant as in the NBA the average year.

Look at the Nationals -- they were able to draft probably the best projected hitter and pitcher to come through the draft in the last 10-12 years and hit on some other players, but all they have to show for it is a couple 1st round playoff exits.

If the data is out there that a power arm like Giles is unlikely to last more than 2 or 3 more years (or there is some particularized PED or injury risk you know about), ok, trade him--though it seems to me that a lot of power arms do last even if they lose some velocity over time. But I would've tried to hold out for more than a package headlined by a guy who if everything breaks right projects as a No. 3 starter. Maybe wait until people get more desperate? Despite the denials by some on here, the Phillies seemed to get a better return for Hamels by waiting for the trade deadline rather than doing it in the offseason.

Does anyone think this deal was too good to pass up? I haven't heard anyone sell the merits of this trade in terms of the assets they got beyond some general Hinkie-inspired love for the fact that they traded him.

I do agree with this. I don't know why they had to deal Giles now and couldn't hold until the deadline. Only thing that makes sense is that they felt teams were desperate after Kimbrel and Chapman were traded and they thought they wouldn't be able to get a better return in the future. I personally don't think they made out - I think if anything the Phillies gambled on an Velasquez, but I've never watched the kid myself.
 
The Phillies haven't been tanking for 3 years. The problem is THEY SHOULDVE BEEN. They held onto Utley and Rollins for 2-3 yrs too long when it was clear they needed to implode the whole thing then. They would be further into this rebuild now if they had because they would've gotten an actual return for Utley and Rollins and not the junk they dumped them for instead. Howard hasn't been movable since he signed that deal so there's nothing they could do there. They were able to get good value back for Hamels because they moved him in his prime. Now Utley and Rollins weren't in their prime a few yrs ago but they were still valuable. This year it was evident they had nothing left. And that was illustrated in the return in trades.

Stop. So you thought they should have dealt those guys in 2011? While winning 102 games? The next year Rube traded the best young OF they had in Pence and started the process. I don't think he fully knew it was going to be a rebuild and believed they could be the Red Sox or Yanks and build while still being competitive. But when you trade Pence you start a full rebuild. You're better than acting like a standard WIP caller and spouting this nonsense.
 
I didn't say 4 yrs ago. I said 2 or 3. After 2012, yes. During 2013, absolutely yes. After 2013, f*ck yes. Writing was well on the wall. I said it then. Saying it now. The team is averaging 69 wins over the last 3 yrs. What are we even debating here?
 
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There's some revisionist history going on here. Phils weere in first place when they traded Pence. They thought Dom Brown could replace him and more, so they went and got their supposed catcher of the future. They weren't tanking. Amaro was just horrible.
 
Wait, what? Weren't they behind the Braves and the Nationals? In fact, far enough back that they decided to move Pence and Victorino? They wouldn't have trade either of those guys if they were in first place and looking at winning the NL East again.

GDog - you said they haven't been tanking for 3 years. 2012 is 3 years ago.
 
Charlie Morton traded to Phillies. Man that's super exciting. I suppose the rotation will be Nola, Eickhoff, Velazquez, Morton, Hellickson. Flip Morton and/or Helly at the deadline when Jake Thompson will probably be up.
 
Wait, what? Weren't they behind the Braves and the Nationals? In fact, far enough back that they decided to move Pence and Victorino? They wouldn't have trade either of those guys if they were in first place and looking at winning the NL East again.

GDog - you said they haven't been tanking for 3 years. 2012 is 3 years ago.

Are you insinuating they WERE tanking in 2012? They were not. I said I wished that they had been. Trading Pence does not suggest they were blowing it up then. They thought they had his replacement in Brown. They were wrong.
 
Trading two starting OF's that were playing at a high caliber - one being only 28 - at the deadline is tanking the rest of the season. No one thinks that a prospect is going to come in and replace Pence's .285 and 28 home runs. So yes, I'm implying they tanked the rest of the season knowing they had no chance to even catch the wildcard.
 
We have different ideas of what really constitutes tanking then. Brown was supposed to be a 5-tool can't miss guy. For me tanking is a fire sale. You remove all aging stars for youth and completely start over. Not remove a guy here or there.
 
Wow, the Phillies got Mark Appel in the deal. Top 30 overall prospect, former #1 pick, and while he hasn't pitched that well to date he still has the potential to become a good middle of the rotation guy. I really like what they've gotten in trades. Their farm system has gone from one of the worst to now one of the best.

As for the tanking, I thought they were tanking that season. I had no idea Ruben was going to make so many bad decisions afterwards. Hell, I thought there was a chance they actually re-sign Pence.
 
Wow, the Phillies got Mark Appel in the deal. Top 30 overall prospect, former #1 pick, and while he hasn't pitched that well to date he still has the potential to become a good middle of the rotation guy. I really like what they've gotten in trades. Their farm system has gone from one of the worst to now one of the best.

As for the tanking, I thought they were tanking that season. I had no idea Ruben was going to make so many bad decisions afterwards. Hell, I thought there was a chance they actually re-sign Pence.

They got Bilal Benn too.
 
The farm system went from the worst in baseball to upper 1/3 in a span of a few months.
 
Just read that the Phillies have 6 top 100 prospects, with a top 10 system. Things are going to turn around sooner rather than later. I look where they're headed.
 
In terms of
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? No.
 
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Jesse Biddle 2 the curb. Those 2009-2011 draft classes are looking gr8! That's what happens when you let a first base coach lead your organization.
The worst thing about the Biddle draft pick is that he signed for under slot money for an organization that was flush with cash at the time.
 
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Or Francoeur? At first I wanted him back as a veteran presence, but there is literally no point in that. Might as well see what this guy has instead of Bourjos for sure.
Like Francouer because of his attitude and intangibles. Looks of wisdom to pass along to the young players.
 
MLBpipeline released their top 100 prospects list. The Phillies ranked 7th and no other team had more guys (7) in the top 100.

Throw in some pups already at the ML level (Franco, Nola, Herrera, to lesser extent Hernandez/Altheer), the #1 pick and a high 2nd RDer in this year's draft, oodles of cash to spend when time is right, and I think I'm liking how this team will look in 2-3 years.
 
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