Georgetown Preview

ONIN2TO · Jan 15, 2016

Hey guys,

Long time board member but seldom poster. I've been doing write ups for the last couple of years for my core group of Villanova friends and have finally been encourage to share with the rest of us Cats enthusiasts. Hope you enjoy.

Go Cats!

GEORGETOWN

Kenpom #69 (#60 Offense / #90 Defense)

Big Wins: #61 Wisconsin, #67 Syracuse (Those are their only top 100 wins)

Losses: #208 Radford (in 2OT), #15 Maryland (by 4), #12 Duke (by 2), #51 Monmouth, #140 UNC Ashville, #43 Creighton

WTF is wrong with Georgetown? They graduated Josh Smith, Jabril Trawick, & Mikael Hopkins but none of those guys were awesome basketball players. Bringing in a stud freshman in Jessie Govan and the maturation of Freshman ballers LJ Peak, Isaac Copeland, & Paul White should have more than made up for the departures. Instead the team has dropped from Kenpom’s #24 to #69. I’ve watched them a few times this year… been lots of fans disguised as empty seats in the Verizon Center.

OFFENSE

Shot Distribution: 28% Rim / 30% Mid-Range / 42% Three

Shooting the ball relatively well
37% from 3pt (#95)
51% from 2pt (#87)
75% from FT (#26)
And getting to the line at the 23rdhighest rate in the nation
But they are turning the ball over a ton(#248) This is even more amazing when you consider D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is their PG and has one of the lower turnover rates in the country… every other player is just turning it over too often.
And getting the ball stolen a ton (#268)
And a surprisingly well below average offensive rebounding team (#218)
This team is really about shooting three’s, getting to the line, or playing through Bradley Hayes down low.

DEFENSE

Shot Distribution: 38% Rim / 30% Mid-Range / 32% Three

9th Best 2pt defense in the nation at 41%
But giving up 36% from three (243)
Getting a lot of blocks (#43)
But virtually no steals (#248)
Teams are getting to the foul line at a super high rate, only 18 teams give up more (out of 351 so they really suck at fouling too much) In fact Georgetown has 5 players with foul rates of more than 5 per 40 minutes (an entire game). Their big man Hayes kinda sucks on defense. Our spread you out style should give Georgetown problems given they try to play big generally with 6-9 Copeland at the 4 spot. Given the high rate teams are taking and connecting on three pointers against them it implies they are not correctly rotating and closing out on shooters.

D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera (6-3) Senior

Shot Distribution: 15% Rim / 29% Mid-Range / 55% Three

DSR’s shooting from all places is a tick down from the previous two seasons.
But his assist rate is up significantly
For the last three years he has slowly shifted to taking more three’s and less action to the hoop.
As in past years, DSR plays as many minutes as he can handle.

LJ PEAK (6-5) Soph

Shot Distribution: 48% Rim / 19% Mid-Range / 34% Three

Shooting the ball well this year… 53% from two (all those shots at the rim) and 38% from 3pt
All his shooting is way up over last year
Getting to the line at an excellent rate.
Fouling an absurd amount (6.1 / 40 minutes)

BRADLEY HAYES (7-0) Senior

Dude has gotten bench mob minutes before this year… he came out of nowhere as a senior to be a major part of this team.
Excellent rebounder
Draws fouls at an excellent rate
Around the basket player with a more than competent mid-range game
Not a great foul shooter (61%)
Not a great defender.

JESSIE GOVAN (6-10) Freshman

Kid is going to be an absolute star someday soon
Can shoot it (8-14 on the season from 3pt)
Gets to the foul line at a very high rate and knocks down FT’s at a 90% rate.
Good defensive rebounder, bad offensive one.
Will be a force next year.

ISAAC COPELAND (6-9) Soph

Playing huge minutes at the PF spot. This team is trying to play big typically, they use the 6-9 Copeland 75% at the PF while the 6-10 Govan and 7-0 Hayes split the minutes basically evenly at the C. Villanova may have a tough time on the offensive boards because of this.
Copeland’s play has been solid but not exceptional this year, not getting as many shots as you might expect.

Georgetown should be using their size and athleticism to physically impose their will on teams, they just haven’t done it on the court enough. They seem to get up for big games (and narrowly lose) will sleepwalk through games they should win easily.

I’ll admit I’m very worried about this game, Georgetown is too talented to keep dropping big games, and who knows how much we are going to get out of an injured Chef.

AROUND COLLEGE BB

With Denzel Valentine and Michigan State returning to earth (seriously neither is thatgood), Josh Hart moves to #4 in the KPoy standings and Chef moves to #5. With Anthony Gill also falling off they are now the only teammates in the top 10. Buddy Hield is still lapping the field as he runs away with the top spot, and Jarrod Uthoff keeps playing awesome and moved to #2.

Iowa started the season as the #36 team in Kenpom but has just methodically improved, they now sit at #4. The team has some obvious ball handling flaws but the generally bigger and slower BIG 10 teams haven’t been able to exploit it.

Rutgers sucks so hard, I’m loving it. They are 6-12 on the year and ranked #277. Their best win is over #237 Fairleigh Dickenson. They are not favored to win a single game in the BIG 10 this year.

After consistently being the luckiest damn team the last couple years, Maryland finally lost to a Michigan team without Caris LeVert. The team basically only has two guards on the roster in Trimble and Sulaimon but damn their frontcourt is good.

*shot charts are a credit to ShotAnalytics.com

**Eric - if I'm breaking copyright laws take this down

ONIN2TO · Jan 15, 2016