Iowa Preview

ONIN2TO · Mar 19, 2016

IOWA (22-10)

Kenpom #20 (#25 Offense / #31 Defense)

Big Wins: #12 Wichita State (without VanVleet), #3 Michigan State 2x (once without Valentine, and the other was his 2nd game back), #10 Purdue 2x (the only team with less guard-play than Iowa)

Losses: #54 Dayton, #39 Notre Dame, @ #18 Iowa State, @ #23 Maryland, #14 Indiana 2x, @ #138 Penn State, #32 Wisconsin, @ #70 Ohio State, #126 Illinois

This team comes in swooning, having lost 6 of 8 prior to beating Temple.

I’ve probably watched Iowa play ten times this year (hey, need to do something on nights the Big East doesn’t play), and my coworker is an Iowa basketball nut, so it’s fun to talk about it with him. Here are the cliff notes… they are a two man team centered around their two wings Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok. Their guard play is average on a good day, neither point guard can beat their man consistently off the dribble, nor are either great shooters. I think this team is an easy scout, if you pressure the ball and lock off adjacent passes their offense flounders. But be careful, this is a veteran team that starts four seniors and a junior.

OFFENSE

Shot Distribution: 32% Rim / 33% Mid-Range / 35% Three

Kenpom #25
Play at a relatively fast pace (#52)
Pretty good shooting team, #92 eFG%
Great from 3pt land (38%) ranked #32
Take care of the ball (#15 turnovers)
Above average offensive rebounding (#87)
Buckets are assisted 58% of the time (#52)
They get to the line at a very low rate (#263)

DEFENSE

Shot Distribution: 34% Rim / 28% Mid-Range / 38% Three

Kenpom #31
Don’t force many turnovers (#128)
Below average defensive rebounding (#260)
Excellent keeping teams off the foul line (#9)
#32 in blocks
#71 in steals
Defend the 3pt line well, on a percentage basis (31%, #20), however allow opponents to shoot a large volume of 3pt shots (#286)

THE STARS

JARROD UTHOFF (Senior ) 6-9

Shot Distribution: 25% Rim / 39% Mid-Range / 35% Three

Ranked as the 7th best player according to Kenpom
Takes 31% of the team’s shots
Decent offensive rebounder, great defensive rebounder (think Josh Hart)
#42 in blocks
Never fouls, but draws more than 5 fouls / 40 minutes
A shooter (82% FT) and (39% 3pt) and has serious range. Great at the rim.
Very high volume in the mid-range, but shoots only 37% in the mid-range.

PETER JOK (Junior) 6-6

Shot Distribution: 17% Rim / 34% Mid-Range / 49% Three

Also takes 30% of the team’s shots (you can do the math for how important these two are)
An even better shooter than Uthoff, (86% FT), (41% 3pt)
But only 36% in the mid-range
Above average rebounder
Averages 2.8 Steals / 40 minutes (#187)
Has been very up and down through the last dozen games
Has the ability to get to the rim, but doesn’t do it as much as he should.
Born in Sudan, truly amazing backstory if you are interested

MIKE GESELL (Senior) 6-2

Shot Distribution: 42% Rim / 38% Mid-Range / 20% Three

The primary PG for Iowa
Great assist rate (#25)
2.7 steals / 40 minutes
Gets to the foul line at a high rate and shoots 73% when he gets there.
Shot 38% from 3pt on the year, but he is an unwilling shooter (only 42 attempts) and shot only 30% during conference play. Basically you let Gesell shoot it. Don’t be fooled by 55% from the top of arc, he has such low volume from there (and everywhere from 3pt).
Shoots 27% in the mid-range.
Highest turnover rate on the team (not good for your PG), rate is basically the same as Brunson or Booth.

ANTHONY CLEMMONS (Senior) 6-2

Shot Distribution: 38% Rim / 26% Mid-Range / 35% Three

The 2nd ball handler on the team. He will play PG when Gesell needs a rest but the pair will play together most of the time.
Gets to the line at a high rate (10th best in conference)
Not a great foul shooter 60%
Not a great 3pt shooter either (31%, but 34% in conference), and much like Gesell people will leave him open. Difference is, Clemmons will still want to shoot it from 3pt, although he does recognize his limitations and tries to avoid the mid-range and get to rim as much as possible.
Has really struggled down the stretch of the season.
Friends and teammates with Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes since childhood (yea that CYO team won a lot of games)

ADAM WOODBURY (Senior) 7-1

Shot Distribution: 67% Rim / 33% Mid-Range / 0% Three

Excellent rebounder (#40 offensive / #100 defensive) and in conference he is #2 / #3 (very good for a conference of trees)
Gets to the line at a high rate (#206 / #6 in conference)
Good from the FT line (70%)
Does a good job of staying out of foul trouble
For someone 7-1 he gets absolutely no blocks (roughly same rate as Jenkins)
His offense has fallen off late in the season for no apparent reason. Hasn’t scored more than 10 points in over a month. I’m told he simply isn’t demanding the ball, and when he gets it he is looking to kick first.
No longer poking people in the eye

DOM UHL (Soph) 6-9

Shot Distribution: 32% Rim / 34% Mid-Range / 35% Three

McCaffery has tightened up his rotation down the stretch, but Uhl will be the 6th man, he averages 42% of minutes.
Good 3pt shooter (43%), but poor in the mid-range (25%)
Very good rebounder.
Poor foul shooter (60%)
I think he has really lost his confidence down the stretch, his shooting volume, percentages, and minutes are all down over the last month and a half.

AROUND COLLEGE BB

Syracuse was 10 – 12 against the Kenpom top 150 and 9-1 outside of the top 150. Great tournament resume Jimmy.
I’ve been harping on Melo Trimble and Sulaimon playing too many minutes… well they finally hit their wall. 57% eFG% through January and 46% eFG% February on.
9 of the top 23 Kenpom teams are in the South Bracket. FYI Wichita State is ranked higher in Kenpom than Oregon.
Pundits that read this (all 0 of you), please stop telling me “Oregon is really really good”. They are the #10 Kenpom team but has the #48 defense. Outside of the PAC 12 you will need to actually play defense.
Keep in mind the preseason poll is most predictive of the eventual champion. In order it was: UNC, Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Wichita State, Villanova

ericw · Mar 19, 2016