Kansas Preview

ONIN2TO · Mar 25, 2016

Well that was awesome

Here is Villanova’s shot chart the past 3 games… it’s good.

The 1.56 points per possession against Miami was the best in college basketball this season.

KANSAS

Kenpom #1 (#7 Offense / #4 Defense)

Big Wins: #6 Oklahoma (2x), #26 Baylor (2x), #7 Kentucky, #10 West Virginia (2x), #14 Iowa State, #25 Connecticut, #24 Maryland.

Losses: #5 Michigan State, #10 West Virginia, #100 Oklahoma State, #14 Iowa State

OFFENSE

Shot Distribution: 40% Rim / 27% Mid-Range / 33% 3pt

Kenpom #7
Very efficient shot selection
Play at a relatively fast pace (#66)
Excellent shooting team (#9 eFG%)
Shooting 62% at the rim / 40% mid-range / 42% 3pt
#4 3pt shooting team in the land
Decent at the line connecting on 71% (#117)
Prone to turnovers (#144), especially steals (#240)
Good offensive rebounding, they get 33% of misses (#78)
Get to the foul line at an above average rate (#109)

DEFENSE

Shot Distribution: 34% Rim / 32% Mid-Range / 33% 3pt

Kenpom #4
#316 in defensive possession length, meaning long defensive possessions. An indication of limiting transition.
#16 eFG% defense
Don’t force a ton of turnovers (#144)
Solid defensive rebounding (#100)
Excellent 2pt defense (#18)

THE STARS

PERRY ELLIS (6-8) SENIOR

Shot Distribution: 49% Rim / 37% Mid-Range / 14% 3pt

#5 player in the country according to Kenpom
Takes the most shots on the team
Excellent shooter 57% eFG%
Good, but not great rebounder
Does not turn it over
Not a good shot blocker
Never gets into foul trouble, only 2.2 fouls / 40 minutes
But draws a ton of fouls, 5.2 / 40 minutes (#330)
Shoots 80% from the line / 62% at the rim / 46% mid-range / 44% 3pt
Scored 20+ points seven of the last 8 games. All of them highly efficiently.

FRANK MASON (5-11) JUNIOR

Shot Distribution: 46% Rim / 23% Mid-Range /31 % 3pt

Likes to get to the rim
Most efficient spots are wing threes
Plays 83% of the game
Excellent assist rate (#280)
Excellent turnover rate
Good steal rate (#489)
Draws a ton of fouls, 4.9 / 40 minutes (#437)
Gets to the line at a very high rate and knocks down 74% of foul shots
Shoots 39% from 3pt

WAYNE SELDEN (6-5) JUNIOR

Shot Distribution: 30% Rim / 22% Mid-Range / 49% 3pt

Efficient shot selection, and excellent shooter
Not a great rebounder
Not a great foul shooter (61%)
Shoots 40% from 3pt
Converts 67% at the rim.

DAVANTE’ GRAHAM (6-2) SOPH

Shot Distribution: 22% Rim / 24% Mid-Range / 53% 3pt

Plays 81% of the game.
Excellent shooter, 57% eFG% (#159)
Excellent assist rate (#431)
Good steal rate
Shoots 74% from the foul line.
But shoots 43% from 3pt on high volume.

LANDEN LUCAS (6-10) JUNIOR

Shot Distribution: 81% Rim / 18% Mid-Range / 1% 3pt

The guy keeping Dialo and Bragg on the bench.
Plays 42% of the game.
Elite rebounder (#12 Offensive / #49 Defensive)
Excellent block rate (#239)
Draws fouls at 4.5 / 40 min
Converts 78% at the stripe
Shoots a super efficient 63% from 2pt range, with most shots coming at the bucket.

SVIATOSLAV MYKHAILIUK (6-8) SOPH

Shot Distribution: 21% Rim / 18% Mid-Range / 62% 3pt

Makes Arcidiacono look easy to spell
Tall shooter off the bench
Shoots 39% from 3pt but has shot 59% over the last month.
Hard to predict if he gets minutes, but you need to be aware of him if he gets into the game.

Self has a very deep team that’s why Cheick Diallo basically hasn’t played in a month. Jamari Traylor and Carlton Bragg have been getting limited and inconsistent minutes. Brannen Greene is also a fantastic player (shooting 49% from 3pt) but has been injured and has barely played the last month. Self has been riding his starting back court as much as he can. Believe it or not they are #262 in bench minutes, despite what may be the deepest bench in the country.
This team commits very few fouls, but is great at getting fouled themselves.
This is the Kenpom #1 vs #2. The algorithm predicts a 1 pt Kansas win, but with each team having a 50% chance to win. This is incredibly close, with only a .0002 difference between each team’s Pythagorean. For context the difference between #1 and #2 last year was .01068 which is a 54x greater gap.

AROUND COLLEGE BB

Josh Hart is back on the KPOY board, checking in at #6
Again to the preseason poll. In order it was: UNC, Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Wichita State, Villanova.
Kind of late in the game, but if you aren’t listening to the cbs college basketball podcast, then you should be. Not beholden to pumping up any conference, they also enjoy criticizing other writers for lazy narratives (like Villanova can’t get out of the first weekend), they are a great listen. Today Gary Parish and Matt Norlander gushed about Villanova for ten minutes, said Nova and Kansas are playing the best basketball of the tournament right now. Norlander picked Nova, and Parish Kansas.
I’m enjoying watching so many of the pundits picking Syracuse tonight. Apparently their zone is some derivation of string theory. Here are some stats for you. Cuse is #337 in defensive rebounding, while Gonzaga is #29 in defensive rebounding (and #99 Offensive). And by the way Sabonis shoots 50% from the high post area.

And this

Kittles93-tc · Mar 25, 2016