http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/villanovas_deceptive_3_point_percentage
He brings up most of the points that many of us have brought up already - Hart, Jenkins and Booth are well below their career averages, the freshmen probably won't combine to shoot 22% all season, and there are other signs to believe Nova will turn around their shooting.
Very interesting read. His conclusion is below.
"Given what we know about Villanova’s most frequent shooters, one can reasonably have more confidence that the Wildcats are just going through a phase. Any future opponents would be unwise to assume that Villanova has been afflicted with some sort of permanent shooting disease or that Jay Wright is thinking about abandoning his 4-out approach.
Three-point shooting is prone to a lot of variation from game to game. And in order to predict future 3-point shooting this early in the season, we need more information than a team’s actual 3-point percentage to date. Three-point attempt percentage is more stable at this point, and teams that take a lot of 3’s are probably decent at 3-point shooting. And it’s a particularly bold statement to take a bunch of 3’s while being a very good 2-point shooting team. That team is expecting to make its 3’s at a very high rate.
Well, that describes Villanova. And while it’s unusual for a good shooting team to go through an eight-game slump, it’s not impossible. I’ll take the Wildcats as an above-average 3-point shooting team going forward. And there’s a decent chance they shoot it better than an Oklahoma team that just burned up the nets in their presence."
He brings up most of the points that many of us have brought up already - Hart, Jenkins and Booth are well below their career averages, the freshmen probably won't combine to shoot 22% all season, and there are other signs to believe Nova will turn around their shooting.
Very interesting read. His conclusion is below.
"Given what we know about Villanova’s most frequent shooters, one can reasonably have more confidence that the Wildcats are just going through a phase. Any future opponents would be unwise to assume that Villanova has been afflicted with some sort of permanent shooting disease or that Jay Wright is thinking about abandoning his 4-out approach.
Three-point shooting is prone to a lot of variation from game to game. And in order to predict future 3-point shooting this early in the season, we need more information than a team’s actual 3-point percentage to date. Three-point attempt percentage is more stable at this point, and teams that take a lot of 3’s are probably decent at 3-point shooting. And it’s a particularly bold statement to take a bunch of 3’s while being a very good 2-point shooting team. That team is expecting to make its 3’s at a very high rate.
Well, that describes Villanova. And while it’s unusual for a good shooting team to go through an eight-game slump, it’s not impossible. I’ll take the Wildcats as an above-average 3-point shooting team going forward. And there’s a decent chance they shoot it better than an Oklahoma team that just burned up the nets in their presence."
