Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter RickJamesB!tch
- Start date
American Pharoah and Dortmund look like legit faves. For a slightly longer shot I kind of like Frosted. Something to keep in mind for this year is that it's no longer earnings, but the points system, and every qualifying race for the points system is a distance race. So you don't have the 6 and 7 furlong speed demons potentially setting the pace. If they had the old system I would really like Frosted as a closer, but if the leaders are allowed to set a reasonable pace, he won't be able to get there. Still, he should be moving forward at the end, include in your exotics.
If AP and/or Dortmund get loose on the lead they're gonna be tough to beat. Post position will obviously be a factor but these appear to be 2 really high quality colts. Frosted isnt a bad flyer. I would probably add Materiality as one as well.
I do like Materiality too. Watched the Florida Derby live and won money on the Materiality win. Time wasn't impressive but the track was super slow that day. Really gutted out the win, just looked like a high effort race whereas AP and Dortmund seemed to be able to cruise to their wins. I guess he had enough time to recover, would be good to look at workout numbers for that one though. I think I saw that AP had ridiculous workouts last week at CD, will have to check further this week.
Seems like this has potential to be a good race. I'd add Carpe Diem into the mix as well. Not as impressive as the others, but has raced against some good competition and won. Odds will come down to the two horses I think.
That AP effort last out was impressive. After the Frosted win in the Wood I told a friend that I thought Terranova would pull Lopez form El Kabeir and go to Borrel and that the horse would hit the board in the Derby. Got to stick with that... I don't know if he has the distance but see him factoring somehow.
Ah...Oaks Day (aka as seed money for Derby Day). Starts early (first post 10:30). Ends late. Horse racing as it was meant to be.
Race 1:
#3 Opening Act: I had him when he broke his maiden at KEE at 28-1. Looks like the controlling speed.
Race 2:
#3 Seoul Gold: No real strong opinion here as it appears to be a wide open group of maidens going one mile on the grass. Like the trainer stats with these types and 15-1 seems like a fair price for a (small) across the board wager.
Race 3:
#3: Conquest Superstep: If she runs back to her last figure, she wins. 5-1 fair price. #8 Curalina has always been highly regarded and will be a tough customer. Maybe box those two in the exacta?
Race 4:
#5 Counterfactual (BEST BET) Filly took play in debut and was blocked repeatedly going one mile in turf debut. Do not expect 9-2 but look out! #11 The Strip is a beaten favorite albeit on dirt. Turf debut was OK. Worth a back up at 12-1.
Race 5:
#7 Enchanting Lisa: Been rock solid since moved to dirt. Might need one off six month layoff but projects ideal trip. #11 Zeven drops from Grade II at KEE and Castellanostrings long. Needs to work out a trip from the outside.
Race 6 (The Edgewood):
#4 My Year Is a Day: New shooter from France has tons of class. First time Lasix adds appeal.
#6 Feathered: First time on grass and disappointed in last two. May run a biggie third race of her form cycle.
#1 Quality Rocks: Hard trying filly normally runs her race.
Taking a stand against the morning line favorite #3 Sunset Glow as her last was visually unimpressive.
Race 7 (LaTroienne):
#8 Molly Morgan: Churchill lover comes off a useful prep in Florida.
#4 America: Finally earned black type last race. Should be rolling late.
#2 My Miss Sophia: Beaten favorite but off since September. Barn change from Pletcher to Mott.
Race 8 (Alysheba):
#7 Honor Code: Has this group absolutely over a barrel. Was not supposed to get up in time to beat crack sprinters first off a long layoff at Gulfstream was ultra impressive doing so. May end up being your Breeders Cup Classic winner.
#3 Neck 'n Neck: Churchill specialist may be a cut below Grade II types but figures to work out a dream trip.
#2 Protonico: Probable favorite should have things comfortable on the front. Good enough to hold off all challenges?
Race 9 (Turf Sprint):
#10 Power Alert: IMO the best turf sprinter in the country. Should make amends for failing as the favorite at KEE. Needs firm turf.
#8 Good Deed: Undefeated on Churchill lawn (2 for 2) and distance specialist (6 starts, 4 wins, 2 seconds).
#3 Heitai: Louisiana bred undefeated at distance (4 for 4) but has been beating softer. Will attempt gate to wire tactics.
Race 10 (Eight Belles):
Tough race...I will probably use MANY in my horizontal wagers. But if I HAVE to narrow it down...
#3 Ekati's Phantom: Eased in last at Gulfstream but has come back with huge work outs. Barn switch to Mott.
#12 Taylor S: Wise guy horse crushed going shorter last time in listed stakes. May be a victim of too much pace.
#6 Scat Means Go (30-1 morning line): If the race falls absolutely apart, I can see this bomb getting up for a piece with Rosario.
Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks):
#7 Lovely Maria: Going with both of the Larry Jones horses. She should be forwardly placed and get first run on the closers.
#8 I'm a Chatterbox: Undefeated in the Jones barn. Versatile running style. Distance questions remain.
#3 Include Betty: Deep, deep closer will have an honest pace. Upset the Fantasy at Oaklawn in her last at 18-1. Could be the one with a clean trip.
Don't bother betting Race 12. Save it for Saturday. Have fun everyone. Cash em, don't trash em.
Race 1:
#3 Opening Act: I had him when he broke his maiden at KEE at 28-1. Looks like the controlling speed.
Race 2:
#3 Seoul Gold: No real strong opinion here as it appears to be a wide open group of maidens going one mile on the grass. Like the trainer stats with these types and 15-1 seems like a fair price for a (small) across the board wager.
Race 3:
#3: Conquest Superstep: If she runs back to her last figure, she wins. 5-1 fair price. #8 Curalina has always been highly regarded and will be a tough customer. Maybe box those two in the exacta?
Race 4:
#5 Counterfactual (BEST BET) Filly took play in debut and was blocked repeatedly going one mile in turf debut. Do not expect 9-2 but look out! #11 The Strip is a beaten favorite albeit on dirt. Turf debut was OK. Worth a back up at 12-1.
Race 5:
#7 Enchanting Lisa: Been rock solid since moved to dirt. Might need one off six month layoff but projects ideal trip. #11 Zeven drops from Grade II at KEE and Castellanostrings long. Needs to work out a trip from the outside.
Race 6 (The Edgewood):
#4 My Year Is a Day: New shooter from France has tons of class. First time Lasix adds appeal.
#6 Feathered: First time on grass and disappointed in last two. May run a biggie third race of her form cycle.
#1 Quality Rocks: Hard trying filly normally runs her race.
Taking a stand against the morning line favorite #3 Sunset Glow as her last was visually unimpressive.
Race 7 (LaTroienne):
#8 Molly Morgan: Churchill lover comes off a useful prep in Florida.
#4 America: Finally earned black type last race. Should be rolling late.
#2 My Miss Sophia: Beaten favorite but off since September. Barn change from Pletcher to Mott.
Race 8 (Alysheba):
#7 Honor Code: Has this group absolutely over a barrel. Was not supposed to get up in time to beat crack sprinters first off a long layoff at Gulfstream was ultra impressive doing so. May end up being your Breeders Cup Classic winner.
#3 Neck 'n Neck: Churchill specialist may be a cut below Grade II types but figures to work out a dream trip.
#2 Protonico: Probable favorite should have things comfortable on the front. Good enough to hold off all challenges?
Race 9 (Turf Sprint):
#10 Power Alert: IMO the best turf sprinter in the country. Should make amends for failing as the favorite at KEE. Needs firm turf.
#8 Good Deed: Undefeated on Churchill lawn (2 for 2) and distance specialist (6 starts, 4 wins, 2 seconds).
#3 Heitai: Louisiana bred undefeated at distance (4 for 4) but has been beating softer. Will attempt gate to wire tactics.
Race 10 (Eight Belles):
Tough race...I will probably use MANY in my horizontal wagers. But if I HAVE to narrow it down...
#3 Ekati's Phantom: Eased in last at Gulfstream but has come back with huge work outs. Barn switch to Mott.
#12 Taylor S: Wise guy horse crushed going shorter last time in listed stakes. May be a victim of too much pace.
#6 Scat Means Go (30-1 morning line): If the race falls absolutely apart, I can see this bomb getting up for a piece with Rosario.
Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks):
#7 Lovely Maria: Going with both of the Larry Jones horses. She should be forwardly placed and get first run on the closers.
#8 I'm a Chatterbox: Undefeated in the Jones barn. Versatile running style. Distance questions remain.
#3 Include Betty: Deep, deep closer will have an honest pace. Upset the Fantasy at Oaklawn in her last at 18-1. Could be the one with a clean trip.
Don't bother betting Race 12. Save it for Saturday. Have fun everyone. Cash em, don't trash em.
So so day yesterday. Real quickly:
Derby picks: Dortmund looks like the one to beat. Box 8,18,19,13,15 in an exacta for a buck. Hope one of the bombers gets up for a price. Cost: $20
Good luck to all
Derby picks: Dortmund looks like the one to beat. Box 8,18,19,13,15 in an exacta for a buck. Hope one of the bombers gets up for a price. Cost: $20
Good luck to all
Also a couple of $0.50 Pick 5's
Race 7: 3/8
Race 8: 4/8/9
Race 9: 2/4/6
Race 10: 5/7
Race 11: 8/18
Cost:$36
Race 7: 8
Race 8: 4/8/9
Race 9: 2
Race 10: ALL
Race 11: 2/8/13/19
Cost: $54
Race 7: 3/8
Race 8: 4/8/9
Race 9: 2/4/6
Race 10: 5/7
Race 11: 8/18
Cost:$36
Race 7: 8
Race 8: 4/8/9
Race 9: 2
Race 10: ALL
Race 11: 2/8/13/19
Cost: $54
Overall the crop is not gr8. Exaggerator is 0-3 against Nyquist but as Barbaro said it's tough to beat a horse 4 times in one year. I look for Exaggerator to continue to blossom in the TC races. Lack of early speed hurts but maybe a couple will get amped up and duel it out to give an honest enough early pace to allow Exaggerator to take all down in the stretch. Need full charts later this week to go final but that's the early thoughts.
Tough race... lot of horses with a similar style. I'm live with an oaks/derby double and have exaggerator and Brodys cause in that bet. Also live in the woodford/derby double with a bunch of horses.
I really like Brody Cause despite the so so speed numbers. One of two horses with 2 G1 wins though both at keenland... But he does have a win a CD. I don't like the post and with all of these one move closers it's going to depend on the trip but I think he has the distance for certain.
Have him keyed in some exactas and tris
Good Intel. Give me a hot play. I'm at a Derby Party looking to take local bookie behind the woodshed. The host is a Nova grad.
You mean 4th year in a row? 4 straight favorites took it home. Expect him to win the Preakness rather handily as that distance suits him perfectly. I would advise the connections of Exaggerator to skip the Preakness to take Nyquist down in New York.
Maybe it is 4 years in a row. Just meant even the place and show horses were all faves too again. Usually a longshot creeps up into the top 3 and makes the exacta or tri payout bigger. Doesn't seem to be happening these last few years though.
Clearly some collusion amongst the horses to maintain a hierarchy amongst the pack... They are evolving canine type traits...
Should Nyqvuist win in MD, I'm Not crazy about other horses being allowed to skip the Preakness then coming back to challenge at the Belmont. Seems to put the horse who ran both legs at a fatigue disadvantage. Seems to happen lot with the length of the Belmont - winner of first two legs beaten by a well rested horse that may have skipped one of two of the first legs and comes in well rested for the brutal mile and a half.
Seems to me that if say, Exagggerator skips Pimlico, he'd be set up well for the Belmont. That doesn't seem right.
Seems to me that if say, Exagggerator skips Pimlico, he'd be set up well for the Belmont. That doesn't seem right.
This is why the Trip Crown barely ever happens and is such a feat. Because fresh horses often end the bids of the horses who win the first 2 legs.
Exaggerator is said to be going on to the Preakness. Interesting, I do believe he would win the Belmont with rest because he has more of a distance pedigree than Nyquist (and was closing a bit on Saturday). Nyquist will probably be about 2-5 in the Preakness. Good day to bet the undercard and just pull for the favorite in the big race.
If its tough to beat a horse 4 times...thinking the 5th time would be pretty easy...at some point you have to admit Nyquist the faster horse at any distance...
With Exaggerator in the Preakness you will get somewhat decent odds in the Preakness. If you think 1-1 is decent. 4-5 at worst. Have to go huge on that exacta. I probably won't even box it.
catFAN, watch the Derby replay. Exaggerator had to do a bunch of navigating through the field and is running like the rest are standing still in the stretch. Belmont is another 1/4 mile longer. Preakness is shorter than the Derby, and with probably half the size field you have to like Nyquist not to mess that one up. Look for these 2 to go 1-2 in all three with a massive showdown in the Belmont
Thought the same, but wondering how much of that was due to Gutierrez backing him off once he knew he had it - you can see he takes a peak back down the stretch and looks to me like he backed him down a bit. Thought Exaggerator ran well, but also thought he would have run better in a less crowded field, which the Preakness should be. Not ready to crown Nyquist yet.