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Phillies direction on #1 pick?

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Burrs5

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Jan 24, 2016
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http://www.phillyvoice.com/who-phil...ow-they-might-play-mlb-draft-their-advantage/

Decent article here on some draft history. Only three HS pitchers taken #1 in 50 years. Also, only one recent CY winner was a HS pitcher.

Last week, Jayson Stark said whispers around baseball were that the Phillies were moving off of the local HS kid Groome and looking at a college pitcher, specifically the kid Puk from FLA.

Today, Stark stated they are moving away from Puk and could take a college bat, specifically the CF from Mercer.

What do you guys think about HS vs College pitching at the top of the draft? Prefer a bat? Or just go with best player on your board regardless of position/level?

Decent article. Give it a gander.
 
Burrs5 said:
http://www.phillyvoice.com/who-phil...ow-they-might-play-mlb-draft-their-advantage/

Decent article here on some draft history. Only three HS pitchers taken #1 in 50 years. Also, only one recent CY winner was a HS pitcher.

Last week, Jayson Stark said whispers around baseball were that the Phillies were moving off of the local HS kid Groome and looking at a college pitcher, specifically the kid Puk from FLA.

Today, Stark stated they are moving away from Puk and could take a college bat, specifically the CF from Mercer.

What do you guys think about HS vs College pitching at the top of the draft? Prefer a bat? Or just go with best player on your board regardless of position/level?

Decent article. Give it a gander.
Click to expand...
As with most things, depends on who the choices are.
 
They picked the year there isn't an elite player to have the first pick. Amazing two of the top 10 players are from the area.
 
If you have a guy similar to Nola who is big league ready but doesn't project to ever be a stud compared to a guy who could be Roger Clemens like, it's truly a tough decision. Even though the Phillies are playing well right now, they are still far away from being a top team but their minor league system is solid right now. If there is no "can't miss" guy, I go with the college kid who can play sooner rather then later but it's tough for sure.
 
adp98 said:
They picked the year there isn't an elite player to have the first pick.
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No doubt. Cap tip to Tough Guy Mike Rizzo and and Laminate Card Lerner on tanking the way the Nats did for years with Harper and SS coming down the pike as 12 year olds, biding their time waiting for their fan base to arrive (maybe still on that one), making the team the Phillies and Mets' punching bag for a half dozen years.

But hey, we got Burrell last time we picked No. 1. Sadly doesn't even look like there's a guy in this draft that projects as well as Burrell did. The two HS pitchers and Mercer guy all look a little scary. Mercer guy was undrafted out of HS, a late bloomer and then some, borderline first round as of a couple months ago.
 
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lowry99 said:
No doubt. Cap tip to Tough Guy Mike Rizzo and and Laminate Card Lerner on tanking the way the Nats did for years with Harper and SS coming down the pike as 12 year olds, biding their time waiting for their fan base to arrive (maybe still on that one), making the team the Phillies and Mets' punching bag for a half dozen years.

But hey, we got Burrell last time we picked No. 1. Sadly doesn't even look like there's a guy in this draft that projects as well as Burrell did. The two HS pitchers and Mercer guy all look a little scary. Mercer guy was undrafted out of HS, a late bloomer and then some, borderline first round as of a couple months ago.
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I hope you're not hinting that Pat Burrell was a bust.
 
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MLB draft Big Board: Ray tops list, Groome next up

  • i

    Keith LawESPN Senior Writer
The draft class this year is notable for the lack of any clear 1-1 (top-pick) candidates, as ESPN colleague Eric Longenhagen and I have been saying all spring. Not only is there no Bryce Harper, there isn't even a Gerrit Cole or a Carlos Correa in this class. There is, however, substantial high school pitching depth of just about all flavors, and I think there are about as many corner bats as you'll see in a typical draft. However, we're at Division IV levels in terms of college starting pitchers, and the few who are good may get pushed up half a round or so as teams flee to the supposed safety of the college arm.

With that, here is the first set of my top 100 MLB draft prospects. Note that this is not a mock draft -- my first mock will come out next Wednesday (May 18) -- but rather how I'd rank them. Each top 100 draft prospect has a player card with his scouting profile, written by Longenhagen; click on the player's name to go to it. (Some of the profiles in the second half of the top 100 don't have write-ups yet; we'll fill those in soon.)

1. Corey Ray, OF, Louisville
Right now, if I had the top pick, I think I'd go with Ray, the best all-around college position player who is at worst a solid everyday left fielder with the upside of a Ray Lankford (whose name I've heard from a couple of scouts over the past year as a comp for Ray). He can hit; he can run; he has some power. Although center field, where he plays part of the time for Louisville, is a pipe dream, he could develop into a capable left fielder. I think he goes among the top three picks.

2. Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (New Jersey) HS
Reports of Groome's demise from local media in south Jersey are greatly exaggerated; you're still looking at a tall, athletic lefty with a good delivery and a grade-70 (on the 20 to 80 scouting scale) breaking ball. I think Groome goes among the top four picks.

3. Delvin Perez, SS, International Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico)
Perez has the best overall package of tools in this class -- he was named the MVP of the Excellence Tournament in Puerto Rico last week, going 12-for-21 in the event and running a 6.23-second 60-yard dash -- and won't turn 18 years old until November, but his hit tool is his least advanced, and as I've noted previously, there are questions about his maturity and work ethic. He could go as low as pick No. 8 (San Diego), depending on how the board falls.

Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS (Carlsbad, California
Moniak has improved his standing with scouts this spring by doing everything except hitting for power. He can hit, run and play center, so if he does exceed power expectations, he has the upside of a star. I don't think he'll go No. 1 overall, but I've heard he's on the Phillies' long list of candidates for that pick.

5. A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
Puk returned after missing most of two starts because of back spasms, had two good starts, then walked six batters this past weekend against Tennessee. He could go 1-1, but I think that's a reach considering that his results at Florida have never matched his stuff -- and his stuff isn't so dominant that he should be the first overall pick anyway. That said, he's clearly the best college starting pitcher prospect in the draft, so he won't slide far.

6. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence (Alabama) HS
Garrett is a very advanced strike-thrower with a plus curveball that he can command and a solid-average fastball that will probably settle in at about a 55 grade. I've heard that the Marlins, who pick seventh, are very high on him, and I don't think he'd get much further than that as a highly polished prep arm with a bit of projection left, too.

7. Blake Rutherford, OF, Chaminade College Prep (West Hills, California)
Rutherford is a highly advanced high school hitter. He's definitely headed to a corner-outfield spot and is an older high schooler at age 19, which is probably enough to push him from the top five into the 6-15 range. He has a good track record of hitting, but the swing isn't geared for big power right now.

8. Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
Lewis could go as high as No. 2 and definitely will go in the top 10 because he's a toolsy college outfielder who should stay in center and already has plus power. He has, however, had contact issues at Mercer and in the Cape summer league.

9. Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS (Sacramento)
Son of former NBA player Rich Manning, Matt is a 6-foot-6 right-hander who has been up to 98 mph and shows a hard spike curveball that is good some weeks and inconsistent other weeks. He's so athletic that I'd happily roll the dice on him even though he needs quite a bit of development.

10. Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
Senzel is by acclamation the best college hitter in the class, but it's much more about contact than power. While he has improved his defense substantially, he's probably never going to be plus at third (though bear in mind that Nolan Arenado was probably a 45 defender at third when he was in Double-A, if not worse, and is now one of the best defenders in baseball at any position). I've heard him strongly linked to Cincinnati at No. 2, and I don't think he gets past Oakland at No. 6.
 
11. Nolan Jones, SS, Holy Ghost Prep (Bensalem, Pennsylvania)
Jones, a shortstop now, is a big kid who's likely to move directly to third base in pro ball and could end up at first. In terms of hit/power upside, the only negative relative to a guy like Rutherford is the weaker competition he has faced in the Northeast.

12. Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission East HS (Prairie Village, Kansas)
Wentz didn't even give up a hit until his fourth outing of the year. He touches 96 mph and pitches at solid-average, with an above-average curveball and consistent strikes already. He also has some power as a first baseman, although his future is on the mound.

13. Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (Overland Park, Kansas)
Pint was 96-100 when I saw him, and he has topped that before. He'll also show a good breaking ball one time and a good changeup another, but the concern is that he doesn't throw strikes, and I don't know how you get him to do that when his arm already works so well. He could be Justin Verlander if it all clicks -- or Brad Pennington if it doesn't. I think his market starts at the Rockies' fourth pick; it makes more sense for them to take a kid with Pint's skill set than for any other team to do so.

14. Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS (Clifton Park, New York)
Anderson just made his first official start of the year this past Saturday after getting rained out twice and battling pneumonia early in the season. He's probably a top-10 guy on merit, but he'll pitch only a few times in front of scouts before draft meetings begin, and I imagine teams will have a hard time getting enough looks at him this month to feel confident taking him that high.

15. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Alamo Heights HS (San Antonio)
Whitley bounced back nicely from a thumb injury that cost him a few starts and a controversial email sent to scouts by his father -- now the stuff of legend, it was about how he wasn't impressed by pro ball and there was no way his son would sign. He has shown clear first-round stuff, including a big fastball and a body that is already well-developed at 6-7 and 250 pounds.

16. Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State
In a year when more college pitchers have seen their draft value head south than improve, Hudson has chugged right along, putting up strong numbers in the SEC with two above-average pitches. I've heard him mentioned as high as pick No. 10 and wouldn't be surprised if someone took him even higher than that given the history of college pitchers in the first round.

17. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Vanderbilt
Reynolds is an unexciting pick, and you wish he struck out less often, but he does hit -- and hit for power. You're probably getting at least an everyday player in an outfield corner, which is a clear first-round pick in a draft with so few good college bats.

18. Zack Collins, C, Miami
Collins can't catch, but he can hit and has power, so if a team is willing to take a college bat who is almost certain to end up at first base, he's the guy. I've heard he's in the mix for at least two teams in the top 10, including Oakland.

19. Kevin Gowdy, RHP, Santa Barbara (California) HS
Gowdy, committed to UCLA, is a fastball/curveball guy with good feel to pitch and a fair amount of physical upside remaining. The Yankees are supposedly heavily on him at pick No. 18, and the Phillies are hoping to get him as an overpay at pick 42.

20. Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois
A year after the Illini had a top-10 pick in Tyler Jay, they're back with another potential first-round arm in Sedlock, who'll show three above-average pitches but has a delivery that some scouts feel won't hold up as a starter.

21. Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford
Quantrill had Tommy John surgery last March, hasn't pitched yet this spring and now might not pitch at all before the draft, fueling rumors he already has a deal in place with someone (such as the Padres at No. 24).

22. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Plum HS (Pittsburgh)
Kirilloff is yet another corner high school bat, but the hit and power tools here seem pretty well established. He also frequently hits with a wood bat in games, as well as always taking batting practice with wood for scouts, which is particularly helpful for a hitter from a cold-weather area.

23. Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt
I still think Sheffield ends up in relief, but he has been good as a starter for Vanderbilt despite his slight build -- showing electric stuff, including a fastball frequently up to 97 mph.

24. Anfernee Grier, OF, Auburn
Grier is a poor man's Kyle Lewis (No. 8 above), a toolsy, athletic college outfielder who has performed well (.390/.470/.590 this year, .346/.407/.458 in SEC play) but strikes out too often, and scouts have noted Grier's trouble with breaking stuff. He might be a sandwich- or second-round guy in a normal draft class, but the paucity of good college bats puts him in the 20s this year.

25. Will Benson, OF, The Westminster Schools (Atlanta)
Benson has a big league body and several outstanding tools, a real upside play for a team -- again, I'm looking at you, San Diego -- that wants to roll the dice on a potential star and is willing to wait, especially because Benson's biggest weakness is his swing.
 
MLB draft prospects Nos. 26-100
26. Josh Lowe, 3B/RHP, Pope HS (Marietta, Georgia)
27. Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia
28. Hunter Bishop, OF, Junipero Serra HS (San Mateo, California)
29. Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College
30. Carter Kieboom, 3B, Walton HS (Marietta, Georgia)
31. Corbin Burnes, RHP, St. Mary's College
32. Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia
33. Cooper Johnson, C, Carmel Catholic HS (Mundelein, Illinois)
34. Alex Speas, RHP, McEachern HS (Powder Springs, Georgia)
35. Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma
36. Anthony Kay, LHP, Connecticut
37. Jeff Belge, LHP, Henninger HS (Syracuse, New York)
38. T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh
39. Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville
40. Sean Murphy, C, Wright State
41. Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail Academy (Kenosha, Wisconsin)
42. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Douglas HS (Parkland, Florida)
43. Ryan Boldt, OF, Nebraska
44. Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran Christian (Kennesaw, Georgia)
45. Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest
46. Lucas Erceg, 3B, Menlo College (California)
47. Zack Jackson, RHP, Arkansas
48. Luis Curbelo, OF, Cocoa (Florida) HS
49. Bailey Clark, RHP, Duke
50. Ryan Rolison, LHP, University School of Jackson (Tennessee)
51. Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State
52. Bo Bichette, SS, Lakewood HS (St. Petersburg, Florida)
53. Ben Rortvedt, C, Verona (Wisconsin) Area HS
54. Jared Horn, RHP, Vintage HS (Napa, California)
55. Cole Ragans, LHP, North Florida Christian (Tallahassee, Florida)
56. Chris Okey, C, Clemson
57. Connor Jones, RHP, Virginia
58. Kyle Muller, LHP, Jesuit College Prep School of Dallas
59. Dane Dunning, RHP, Florida
60. Sheldon Neuse, SS, Oklahoma
61. Brandon Marsh, OF, Buford (Georgia) HS
62. Reggie Lawson, RHP, Victor Valley HS (Victorville, California)
63. Bryson Brigman, SS, San Diego
64. Jon Duplantier, RHP, Rice University
65. Buddy Reed, OF, Florida
66. Carlos Cortes, 2B, Oviedo (Florida) HS
67. Adam Laskey, LHP, Haddon Heights (New Jersey) HS
68. Logan Shore, RHP, Florida
69. Joe Rizzo, SS/3b, Oakton HS (Vienna, Virginia)
70. A.J. Puckett, RHP, Pepperdine
71. Braeden Ogle, LHP, Jensen Beach (Florida) HS
72. Chad Hockin, RHP, Cal State Fullerton
73. Daulton Jeffries, RHP, California
74. Mario Feliciano, C, Carlos Beltran Baseball Acad. (Puerto Rico)
75. Skylar Szynski, RHP, Penn HS (Mishawaka, Indiana)
76. Ben Bowden, LHP, Vanderbilt
77. Colby Woodmansee, IF, Arizona State
78. Peter Alonso, 1B, Florida
79. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Damien HS (La Verne, California)
80. Ryan Zeferjahn, RHP, Seaman HS (Topeka, Kansas)
81. Brett Cumberland, C, California
82. Matthias Dietz, RHP, John A. Logan College
83. Hudson Sanchez, 3B, Southlake (Texas) Carroll HS
84. Kyle Cody, RHP, Kentucky
85. Thomas Jones, OF, Laurens (South Carolina) HS
86. Nonie Williams, SS, Home-schooled (in Kansas)
87. Max Kranick, RHP, Valley View HS (Archbald, Pennsylvania)
88. Heath Quinn, OF, Samford
89. Drew Mendoza, SS, Lake Minneola (Florida) HS
90. Mike Shawaryn, RHP, Maryland
91. Dustin May, RHP, Northwest HS (Justin, Texas)
92. Conner Capel, OF, Seven Lakes HS (Katy, Texas)
93. Nolan Martinez, RHP, Culver City (California) HS
94. Akil Baddoo, OF, Salem HS (Conyers, Georgia)
95. Will Ethridge, RHP, Parkview HS (Lilburn, Georgia)
96. Tyler Mondile, RHP, Gloucester Catholic (Gloucester City, New Jersey)
97. Jose Miranda, 3B, Caguas (Puerto Rico)
98. Jeremy Martinez, C, USC
99. Davis Daniel, RHP, Saint James School (Montgomery, Alabama)
100. Dylan Carlson, 1B, Elk Grove (California) HS

http://espn.go.com/mlbmockdraft/201...-draft-big-board-plenty-good-high-school-arms
 
i like how the black guy, corey rey, gets compared to ray lankford.

you couldn't come up with a better comparison than a black guy who played his last major league season in 2004?
 
KennyTheKangaroo said:
i like how the black guy, corey rey, gets compared to ray lankford.

you couldn't come up with a better comparison than a black guy who played his last major league season in 2004?
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I'll allow it. Lankford was a memorable player, and as such a good basis for comparison. Also it's somewhat easier to make these comparisons to a guy whose career is over, can fully assess a ceiling (i.e., like Lankford, solid player for a number of years, often above average, but will never be in the HOF comparison, even at a J Roll level).

If you pick out somebody who's in his prime now to compare or younger, you bring in differences of opinion on how the rest of his career might shake out, harder to compare apples to apples.
 
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Oddly enough, when you look up Ray lankford's batter similarities on baseball reference, 4 of the 10 players are black guys.
 
Keith Law just posted his first mock draft. He has the Phils selecting AJ Puk, Says he threw really well on Saturday with three reps from the Phils there. He does say there is a lack of a consensus around the top talents that include: Puk, Kyle Lewis, Corey Ray, Mickey Moniak, and Blake Rutherford.
 
You draft with an eye towards 3-5 years out, so you always go with the best player in that sense over worrying about taking a pitcher v positional player (or a "bat" as burrsies seems to cal them).


MLB draft is a bigger unpredictable event than even the NFL draft.
 
as002 said:
You draft with an eye towards 3-5 years out, so you always go with the best player in that sense over worrying about taking a pitcher v positional player (or a "bat" as burrsies seems to cal them).


MLB draft is a bigger unpredictable event than even the NFL draft.
Click to expand...

I agree about the unpredictable part of it.
 
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