Providence Preview Part II

ONIN2TO · Feb 5, 2016

PROVIDENCE

Kenpom #44 (#115 Offense / #20 Defense)
18-5

Big Wins: #14 Arizona (Neutral), @ #34 Butler, @ #36 Creighton, #34 Butler, @#3 Villanova, @#60 Georgetown

Losses: #16 Michigan State (Neutral), #112 Marquette, #43 Seton Hall, #18 Xavier, @#159 DePaul

Ben Bentil rolled his ankle late in the 1st half against DePaul, and it absolutely destroyed Providence. The game was roughly tied from my recollection, but the team really struggled after that. While Bentil tried to play for a few minutes in the second half it was obvious he was too injured to contribute. Regardless of whether Ochefu plays on Saturday, the Cats may have caught an enormous break if Bentil can’t play or isn’t at full strength. DePaul was able to win in large part by destroying Providence on the boards, grabbing 18 offensive rebounds and 30 defensive rebounds, verses 9 & 15 for Providence.

PROVIDENCE OFFENSE

Shot Distribution: 39% Rim /28 % Mid-Range / 34% 3pt

The Good

Getting to the rim at a high rate and converting at a solid 62% clip
Low turnover rate (#56)
Solid offensive rebounding (#78)

The Bad

Poor mid-range team, making only 29%
Poor from 3pt range as well at 31% (#304)
Not getting to the line as much as one would think (#181)

PROVIDENCE DEFENSE

Shot Distribution: 36% Rim / 31% Mid-Range / 34% 3pt

The Good

Excellent defensive team (#20)
Defending the arc well, holding opponents to 31% (#36) Opponents shoot a slightly below average number of threes against Providence.
Very low free throw rate (#20)
Force opponents to get most of their points on 2pt shots.
Average defensive rebounding (#187)
Force plenty of turnovers (#23), get blocks (#120), and steals (#69)

The Bad

Not much, they have an average 2pt defense, opponents make 49% (#195) but if there is one place to be average this is it.

SNOWDOWN IN PHILLY

Shot Distribution: 44% Rim / 22% Mid-Range / 34% 3pt

Providence ate us alive last time out by getting to the rim at a high rate, and converting 64%.
On the Mid-Range they only connected at 29%, and shot 36% from Three.
Nearly half of their attempts at the rim were Ben Bentil, in no small part due to his 7 offensive rebounds.

THE STARS

KRIS DUNN (6-4) Junior

Shot Distribution: 43% Rim / 31% Mid-Range / 25% 3pt
Shooting: 68% FT / 61% Rim / 31% Mid-Range / 39% 3pt

It takes a lot of bullet points to explain how good Kris Dunn is.
36th highest usage in the country
#2 in assist rate
#6 in steals
Defensive rebounds very well for a guard.
Draws fouls and shooting fouls at a high rate
Just deadly at the rim due to his high shooting percentage and ability to draw fouls.
Playing huge minutes, 89% of the game in Conference which is 3rd most.

BEN BENTIL (6-9) Soph

Shot Distribution: 47% Rim / 31% Mid-Range / 22% 3pt
Shooting: 82% FT / 66% Rim / 32% Mid-Range / 27% 3pt

Gets to the bucket at a high rate, converts at the rim at a high rate, and if you foul him on his way to the hoop… well he is an excellent Foul Shooter (82%) as well. Bentil has decreased his jump shots and increased attempts at the rim over the last 5 games. He is taking fewer 3 pointers.
Getting to the free throw line at the 2nd highest rate in the Big East. He has taken at least 9 foul shots in every Big east game but one (not counting DePaul has he was injured).
Likes to shoot from the baseline.
Good rebounder, especially on the offensive side (#261)
Bentil is playing huge minutes (6th most in the conference), he has played 82% of minutes so far this year.
You want to make Bentil a jump shooter, he only converts 30% on everything away from the rim.

RODNEY BULLOCK (6-8) Soph

Shot Distribution: 47% Rim / 26% Mid-Range / 26% 3pt

Much like Bentil he is also playing huge minutes (81%), 8th most in the Big East
Anchoring things down low, good rebounder #16 defensive rebounder in Conference
Great at the Rim (63%), but terrible Mid-Range (23%), and from Three (29%).

Dunn, Bentil & Bullock are all playing huge minutes for Cooley for a reason. The remaining guards and wings are a bit of a step down, tend to play very inconsistent. Providence only gets 28% of total minutes from their bench, only 48 teams get fewer.

JUNIOR LOMOMBA (6-5) Junior

Shot Distribution: 36% Rim / 36% Mid-Range / 29% 3pt

Junior is a shooting guard that can’t shoot. He is shooting a 26% from three but on low volume. His 29% from Mid-Range is rough also.
But he can slash to hoop where he converts 60% and gets fouled at a high rate.

JALEN LINDSEY (6-7) Soph

Shot Distribution: 18% Rim / 8% Mid-Range / 74% 3pt

All. Behind. The. Line.
Which is a problem when you are taking the most 3pt attempts on the team and only hitting 25%, and only 17% in conference.
He did not play last game against DePaul, and logged only 7 minutes the game before but I can’t figure out why. His minutes have been replaced by Ryan Fazekas who missed the middle third of the season with mono. The Freshman Fazekas shot 3-6 from three against DePaul, he is a 3pt specialist to watch out for.

KYRON CARTWRIGHT (6-0) Soph

Shot Distribution: 35% Rim / 38% Mid-Range / 28% 3pt

Plays the majority of his minutes with Dunn, also playing the PG
Low usage player that can hit open shots. Boom or bust season so far, in conference he has had 3 games of 0-2 points and 5 games with 10-13 points.
Has been taking far more 3pt shots recently, with mixed results.

AROUND COLLEGE BB

Rutgers lost in triple overtime on Wednesday night. They are still winless in the Big Ten (0-10)
Iowa has taken the Kenpom top spot from Oklahoma, no small feat.
Villanova & Oregon are now tied at #2 in the RPI.
Mikal Bridges has the highest offensive efficiency in the Big East.
(The sometimes maligned) Darryl Reynolds has the 7th highest Offensive rebounding rate and the 11th highest Defensive rebounding rate in the Big East. Sorry haters.
If Villanova can avoid taking a bad loss our computer numbers will continue to be excellent, the committee will have to give the Cats a great seed. I think our remaining schedule is significantly easier than the other teams fighting for a #1 or #2 seed. While it feels absurdly early to be thinking about his, after next week we will only have 6 regular season games remaining.
4 of Villanova’s remaining 9 games are against teams ranked outside of the Kenpom top 100 (and Temple is #96).
Josh Hart is still holding down the #6 spot in the Kenpom Player of the Year Standings. Finishers at the #6 spot in past years have been (in reverse order): Stanley Johnson, Sean Kilpatrick, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Taylor, Kawhi Leonard.

mosby2 · Feb 5, 2016