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Week # 11 in the CAA

VU 54

'Nova Nation Sensation
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Apr 25, 2007
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Saturday, November 8, 2014

Delaware (3-2/5-4) at Albany (2-3/6-3)
The focus in Newark now is can the Hens end up with a .500 season.Last year they ended up 7-5 and missed the playoffs by dropping their last 3 games. A 6-6 season this year will be a step back but that's due to the new mandate from the administration to head coach Dave Brock - enough with the quick fix and all the 1-A transfers - build the team from the ground up with 4 year players. This Saturday is a huge game for the Hens in their quest for a winning season or the break-even season. Next week is a definite loss up at New Hampshire and their last game a potential loss at home vs Villanova. Remember, the Hens won down at JMU (a better team than Albany) so a win up at Albany is doable.
Albany still has their hat in the playoff rink. However, their schedule is not favorable for that dream to occur this year. This appears to be the last chance for a win in the 2014 campaign for the Great Danes. Last week Albany lost at New Hampshire, 49-24. Next week they travel down to Villanova and then they finish at home with Stony Brook.Looks like a final record of 7-5 - not bad for a team that finished 1-11 last year.
Let's give the Great Danes the home team advantage with a 24-21 win over the Hens.

#8 Richmond (4-1/7-2) at Maine (2-3/3-5)
It was an ugly, head shaking, head scratching but exciting game last week vs Villanova. I came away very impressed with the Spider defense, holding the #1 CAA offensive team averaging 42 points a game to just 9 points. They turned a great quarterback into an average one. However, for playoff success the offense has to play better and that starts with their quarterback Mike Rocco and their running game. Richmond should have won that game comfortably but shot itself in the foot with 4 turnovers. Coming off the win at home vs Villanova, this Maine game could be a "trap" game with the Spiders hosting JMU next week and then finishing at W&M, both teams still with playoff hopes.
After an upset win on the road at Towson to open the CAA 2014 campaign for the Black Bears, they proceeded to drop their next three - at home vs Villanova, at Stony Brook and at home vs Albany. The scheduling gods gave them a favor with a game vs 0-7 Rhode Island two weeks ago and the Bears thanked them with a 20-14 win (though they had to come from behind in the closing minute to do so). Maine travels down to Elon next week (a 50-50 game) and then finishes hosting New Hampshire.
Maine is at home and well-rested with the bye week (something not many teams can say at this time of the year) but the Spiders are focused on the postseason and will win, 31-17.

#2 New Hampshire (5-0/7-1) at Rhode Island (0-5/0-9)
The 2014 schedule for UNH (only 11 games, not 12) and with their last four games - two against struggling teams on the road and two vs rebuilding teams at home will serve the Wildcats very well as they will get a playoff bye and be rested and healthy for a postseason run that should get them to the Finals. Last week was a 49-24 home win vs Albany. Next week will be the other rebuilding team (Delaware) at home and then a game at struggling Maine.
The Rams lost at Delaware last week, 28-13 and travel to Stony Brook next week before finishing with Towson at home and their last opportunity for a win in 2014.
UNH sleep walks to a 42-14 win in Kingston.

JMU (3-2/6-3) at Stony Brook (3-2/4-5)
The Dukes started out 0-2 in the CAA this year losing at Villanova and at home in overtime to Delaware (a bad loss). After three consecutive wins (at Albany, Towson, 62-7 and last week at home vs W&M winning in the last 47 seconds, 31-24) JMU is hot. Win this week and next week at Richmond and JMU is going to the playoffs (they close with a "W" at home vs Elon). But let's not get ahead of ourselves. All of that is wishful thinking on the part of every JMU fan.
Stony Brook seems to have righted the ship after 3 terrible losses this year. The first one was their opening game at home vs Northeast Bryant. The next one was another out of conference loss at 3-6 Big Sky North Dakota. The 3rd one was an overtime loss at home to W&M. Two weeks ago the Seawolves almost did the impossible - winning at New Hampshire before losing 28-20. Last week was a bye and so they are well-rested and ready for JMU. Next week is a home game vs URI and the Seawolves close at Albany. With 5 losses already Stony Brook can't make the playoffs but they can ruin the chances for JMU and Albany.
JMU will fight for their playoff lives but a well-rested and home team Stony Brook should win but only by one - 21-20.

Elon (0-5/1-8) at #24 William & Mary (2-3/5-4)
The Phoenix are still looking for their 1st CAA Conference win ever but it won't happen this week. Elon hosts Maine next week - that's the one you want to get and finishes at JMU.
I think JMU snuffed out the playoff candle for the Tribe last week with their 31-24 win in Harrisonburg in the closing seconds.The Tribe travels to Towson next week and then finishes at home with Richmond. Finish 8-4 and you are still in the conversation but it's doubtful the CAA gets 4 invites to the Big Dance this year.
Tribe to win at home, 31-17.

Towson (2-3/4-5) at #7 Villanova (4-1/7-2)
In 2013 the Tigers went all the way to the Championship game but lost to undefeated and three-time consecutive champ North Dakota St. They rode the coattails of their All-American running back Terrance West, who is now collecting a paycheck every Sunday in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns. They also lost their entire offensive line and thus the 4-5 record. Their first game told them that it could be a long season with a 31-27 loss at home to 2-7 Northeast Central Connecticut St. Next was a trouncing by 6-3 1-A/Big 12 West Virginia, 54-0. A difficult win at 2-8 MEAC Delaware St. followed and then a home win vs 4-5 North Carolina Central, 31-20. In their first CAA game of this year they suffered a bad loss at home to 3-5 Maine, 27-24 in the last minute. Next was another home loss vs Stony Brook, 14-3. After getting blown out at JMU, 62-7, they upset Delaware in Newark, 24-17. Last week was a 21-19 win over Elon in Towson, Maryland. The Tigers are 4th in the CAA in rushing offense being led by the #1 RB in the conference, Darius Victor. The Cats have to stop him or at least keep him under 100 yards. The Tigers are dead last in passing offense which is fine with us as we are dead last in passing defense. They shouldn't hurt us with their kicking game (ranked 9th in the CAA) and we will return the favor. Villanova ranks 2nd in rushing defense and Towson 5th. Their pass defense is rated 9th in the CAA so John Robertson should be able to pick them apart. Be aware, Villanova, of the Towson punt return game which is a deadly 1st in the CAA. Hopefully, Villanova's own players won't run into our punt return men and cause anymore fumbles.(How bad and embarrassing was that).
Be careful, Villanova, with this game. The Tigers only lost two CAA games last year - one to Delaware which they already got their revenge this year at Delaware and the other to the Cats, 45-35, down in Towson. They will come ready to take our scalp. A worn-out and injury depleated team should win on the Mainline this weekend but only by a touchdown, 28-21. Would rather see a 42-21 score but don't think that will happen. Prove me wrong Cats! Towson finishes with W&M next week and then at URI. Cats host Albany and then the big rival game down in Newark.

GO CATS - BEAT THE TIGERS!
 
Once again thanks for this excellent post every week. I may be crazy, but this game scares me. Towson has some damm good football players. Darius Victor is very good. But Cats seem able to shut down the run each week. Let us hope Cats have put last week's performance away.
 
I'm going optimistic this week. This team is too good not to rebound with a well played game. 2 TD win. I'm counting on an improvement in our pass defense. May have to take some chances with our front 6. Maybe risky but it also may be necessary.
 
Cats will allow Towson to score to get the ball back down 8, score to close to within 2 and drop kick the extra point to lose by 1.
 
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