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X-Country 2015

sebastianc

Diaper Dandy
Apr 11, 2010
413
1
18
The rosters are up. There is no Kelsey Margey for 2015 cross country. Nor is she listed on the 2015-16 indoor roster. Anyone know why? Not good.
 
A little surprised with the men. Didn't realize that G'town was so much better. Figured Corbusier was in the same range as Warnick. Reminds me of several years ago when men had four really good guys and lacked a fifth. Women are about where they should be. Burda is good. Where is Williams?
 
The rosters are up. There is no Kelsey Margey for 2015 cross country. Nor is she listed on the 2015-16 indoor roster. Anyone know why? Not good.

sebastanianic,

Thanks for the information; I have been following the N. Y. prospects.
 
A little surprised with the men. Didn't realize that G'town was so much better. Figured Corbusier was in the same range as Warnick. Reminds me of several years ago when men had four really good guys and lacked a fifth. Women are about where they should be. Burda is good. Where is Williams?

Yes, it seems as though Villanova men will go only so far this year as their #5. Georgetown is very deep (at Paul Short on Friday they had 9 guys home before Villanova's #5 crossed the line), but only 5 guys count and Villanova can still rebound if Corbusier and Warnick stay within 5-10 seconds of each other (and if they don't get too far detached from Rob Denault). But if Villanova's #4 and/or #5 get detached (as #5 was at Paul Short -- a full 32 seconds behind Warnick at #4), then there will be trouble.

Looking back at last year's results, Corbusier consistently ran about 20 seconds behind Warnick:
  • Washington Invitational: Warnick 24:08; Corbusier 24:31 = 23 second gap
  • Princeton: Warnick 24:20; Corbusier 24:42 = 22 second gap
  • Big East: Warnick 24:16; Corbusier 24:38 = 22 second gap
  • NCAA Regional: Warnick 30:33; Corbusier 30:50 = 17 second gap
  • NCAA Nationals: Warnick 31:46; Corbusier 31:59 = 13 second gap
Hypothetically, at Paul Short on Friday if Corbusier had run his usual 20 seconds (instead of 32) behind Warnick, Villanova still does not beat Georgetown -- it would have been Georgetown (37), Villanova (45). Still, Villanova's 1-5 spread of 55 seconds was the largest of any of the top 9 teams (Georgetown's 1-5 was 25 seconds, and its 1-7 was only 34 seconds).

Also, looking at the Open race (where Villanova's frosh ran), despite Comber (25:07) & Marston (25:10) again looking very good (and with Wetzel still working through some minor physical issues), there don't seem to be any potential remedies there for this year. Corbusier was still 17 and 20 seconds faster at Paul Short than Comber and Marston, respectively. Given Marcus's history with frosh, count on those guys to be redshirted. So, it is what it is.

Bottom line, Villanova's 3-4 gap (15 seconds between Denault & Warnick) and the 4-5 gap (32 seconds between Warnick & Corbusier) were too large to beat Georgetown on Friday.
We'll get more evidence at the Princeton meet. That being said, Georgetown is very good.
 
TFE is probably right - let's see what happens when we get to the manly distance of 10K. Still there are only five guys and it pretty depends on a great improvement by Warnick and Corbusier. Are they that much better at the longer distance?

Women are a different story. They are really young. Not ready for prime time Three frosh and a soph in the starting five ...? What happened to Bungo? Margey is out for the year. There is a bio for Julie Williams on the website, but she is not on the XC roster nor the indoor track roster. Is she hurt, transferred, or ...?
 
Meanwhile, the red-shirted freshman guys looked promising at the Haverford Invitational. Logan Wetzel debuted at Haverford, and Comber & Marston continued to look strong. Here are the top Villanova frosh results over the 4-mile course:

1. Casey Comber 19:51.8
2. Andrew Marston 19:52.0
6. Logan Wetzel 20:22.9 (on-line results list Vasquez here, due to chip swap error)
7. Griffin Tichenor 20:24.6
9. Paul Power 20:29.3
13. Zack Swenson 20:53.1
20. Lucas Arrivo 21:10.6
25. Louis Vasquez 21:27.9

https://xc.tfrrs.org/results/xc/8578.html

Many of these guys ran this same course back on Sept. 18th at the Main Line Invitational (which Pat Tiernan won in a controlled 19:16). Back then, Comber went 19:30, Marston 19:35, Tichenor 20:23, Swenson 21:12, Arrivo 21:18, and Vasquez 22:01.
 
Of course, the lack of depth means that Villanova doesn't have the luxury of sitting anyone out for the regionals, which means that milers will be running 10Ks in consecutive weeks. Tiernan is built to handle that, but the mid distance guys really aren't.
 
In an interesting development, according to the official VU press release, it seems as though Robert Hurlbut will replace Kevin Corbusier at #5 tomorrow at Big East championship meet. The release states that those competing on the men's side will be:

Tiernan
Williamsz
Denault
Warnick
Hurlbut
Trainer
Johnston
Malone
Slade

http://www.villanova.com/sports/m-xc/spec-rel/102915aaa.html

So, if all plays out to form, much will depend on Warnick & Hurlbut staying attached to the top 3 guys. Let's see what happens. Race distance is still 8K (goes to 10K at Regionals).
 
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