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Ceiling & "Success"

I believe it was ghill03 that started a thread on 24 Jan asking a series of questions - the two of most interest to me were: 1) what people think the ceiling for this team is and 2) how deep would the team have to advance in the NCAAs for it to be viewed a "success".

There weren't a huge number of voters (10) but here is the % results:

Ceiling:
Final 4/National Title: 60%
Elite 8: 30%
Sweet 16: 10%

Success:
Elite 8: 20%
Sweet 16: 70%
Depends on draw: 10%

I am interested in:
A) more people weighing in with their answers and
B) knowing if anyone who did chime in would alter their choices now based on the home loss to Providence followed by the Ochefu-less, messy game at the Garden.

(Please RSVP) 'Nova-Oklahoma gamewatch at Tilted Kilt in KOP

Although I'll be in Houston, I've set up a gamewatch at Tilted Kilt in King of Prussia (http://tiltedkilt.com/king-of-prussia/) for those who will be in the Philly area this weekend. Although the game isn't scheduled to start on TBS until 6:09 p.m. on Saturday, I've reserved a large portion of the upper level (and will possibly reserve the entire upper level if I get a big enough response) of Tilted Kilt for 'Nova fans starting at 4:30 p.m.

Please note that the gamewatch will take place on the SECOND FLOOR (not the first floor).

All ages are welcome!

As always, the audio will be on for the game.

For the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games, we had close to 100 people (ranging from babies to grandparents) in attendance each night, and I'm expecting another large crowd on Saturday. If possible, PLEASE REPLY to let me know if you and/or anyone else you know is planning on coming. We don't have to have an exact headcount, and, of course, anyone can show up without notice (the more, the merrier), but it would be VERY helpful to have a list of definites in advance, so I can get some semblance of how many to expect. (If more than anticipated show up, Tilted Kilt will make it work. There's a lot of space there.)

"Dome Effect" - advantage to Cats?

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab...h-carolina-s-biggest-advantage-214625773.html

After seeing the way that the Cats successfully turned the Kansas game into the rough and tumble "street fight" that they wanted, with the Cats prevailing despite drilling only 4-for-18 from downtown, I'd have to think that the "dome effect" could work to our advantage on Saturday. Hart, Bridges, and crew are going to have their hands full with the sensational Buddy Boy - and Isaiah Cousins is a dangerous guy too - but the difference between the Sooners making, say, 8 threes and 11 threes could very well be the difference in the game.

Pomeroy's research has shown that three point %s go down about 4% in the Final Four.

With both teams facing the same issue, shooting the basketball, I'm confident that our team defense will once again be the difference in this game. Jay has said that we are not going to aim to speed this game up. I trust our ability to get stops when we need them, and to limit Buddy to under 25.

The "dome effect" has been around every year, since 1997, but what do people feel about its impact this wknd?

(Win Ugly.)

Donofrio 2016

Here are the Donofrio Classic, Round of 16, games of interest to Villanova fans from a recruiting perspective:

29 March 7PM:
We R i (Trevon Duval, Tyree Pickron) vs. James Fox (Lucas Monroe, Eric Dixon)

29 March 8:30 PM:
Old School Cavs (Mohamed Bamba, Cam Reddish, Mikeal Jones)

30 March 7PM:
Team Philly (Seth Pickney, Damon Wall, Anthony Ochefu)

30 March 8:30
Filly Sol (Justin Anderson, Marcus Little)

31 Mar 8:30PM
Raw Sports (Lonnie Walker, Dylan Painter, Aaron Thompson)

05 Apr 7PM:
Team Hardnett (Daron Russell)

05 Apr 8:30PM
Just Clean It (Seth Pickney, Tyree Pickron, Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree)
vs.
Pos Image II (Quade Green, Daron Russell)

All games are played at Fellowship House in Conshy:
The Fellowship House is located at 5th and Harry Streets. (Harry is one block off of Fayette Street, the main street in Conshohocken. If you enter Conshy from the Schuylkill Expressway/Blue Route side by going across the big bridge, you will be on Fayette Street. Go to 5th and make a right. The Fellowship House is one block down on the left-hand side.)

OFFICIAL TRAVELING TO THE FINAL FOUR THREAD

Can't sleep. Watching the game on replay now like others. I am going to the Final Four. This is what I've found so far.

- Much cheaper to fly into Austin and then drive 2ish hours to Houston. Like $700-$1,000 depending on where you are coming from. I will be in Richmond all week and will fly Richmond-Atlanta-Austin on Friday. Anyone down to hang out in Austin on Friday if you fly in? Let me know.
- If you fly out of NYC, the flight from JFK to AUS on Saturday morning isn't bad price wise
- The catch is getting home from Houston to NYC or PHL or wherever.

Having never done booked this using air travel - how do you do this? Do you book your flights for departure Tuesday morning? If we lose Saturday, you just try and change your flight? I assume you book one night of hotels knowing there will be cancellations come Sunday morning?

Hypothetical: Final Four Scenarios

Trying not to count hours before Saturday and have read nearly every article written. My mind was wandering as I read Seth Davis' article about a team protesting by not playing. So lets say Cuse decides it's going to prove a point and refuses to come out for the game or dresses but refuses to play the game.

Does UNC just advance to the championship game to face the winner of OU/Nova?

How about if for some reason a team can't make the trip to Houston. Turns out 3/4 of 'cuse has a bad case of the poops and is dehydrated/hospitalized. Do they postpone the whole thing? That team forfeits?

What happens if Jimmy B finally sticks his finger a bit too far up his nose, pokes his brain and keels over dead the day before the game. Do they play it?

Barring some kind of war/horrible domestic terrorist attack, under what scenarios do you think the NCAA just says - nah we're not playing the games?

Oklahoma Preview

OKLAHOMA (29-7)

Kenpom #5 (#13 Offense / #13 Defense)

Big Wins: #1 Villanova, #16 Iowa State (2x), #9 West Virginia (2x), #27 Baylor (2x), #19 Texas A&M, #11 Oregon.

Losses: #2 Kansas (2x), #16 Iowa State, #52 Kansas State, #51 Texas Tech, #33 Texas, #9 West Virginia


OFFENSE
0IDsQ0d.jpg

Shot Distribution: 36% Rim / 23% Mid-Range / 40% 3pt
  • Kenpom #13
  • Very efficient shot selection
  • Play at a fast pace (#56)
  • #17 eFG%
  • #2 Three Point shooting team (43%) and they take a high volume (#60)
  • Do not get the foul line often (#262) but knock down 72% when they get there (#89)
  • Somewhat turnover prone (#177), especially steals (#303)
  • Average assist rate (#154)
  • Solid offensive rebounding (#131)

DEFENSE
t5rLHz8.jpg

Shot Distribution: 38% Rim / 26% Mid-Range / 36% 3pt
  • Kenpom #13
  • #31 defensive eFG%
  • Do not force many turnovers (#202)
  • But do block shots at a high rate (#33)
  • Do not rebound very well (#208)
  • Excellent keeping teams off of the foul line (#28)
  • Hold teams to low shooting percentages from everywhere on the court. 33% from Three (#27), 45% from Two (#38)
  • Extremely low assist rate (#9)

THE STARS

BUDDY HIELD (6-4) SENIOR
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Shot Distribution: 33% Rim / 14% Mid-Range / 52% 3pt
  • After a bit of a mid-season swoon (on a very relative basis), Buddy is back up to the #2 player in the country according to Kenpom, just a hair behind Brice Johnson for the #1 spot.
  • Shoots 47% from 3pt range (#14). Shoots 43% from NBA Range, and 54% between the college and NBA lines.
  • Plays a ton of minutes, 88% of the game. And takes 31% of shots.
  • #8 True shooting in the nation.
  • Not a great assist rate.
  • Draws a ton of fouls 5.4 / 40 minutes and knocks down 88% from the line (#25)

ISAIAH COUSINS (6-4) SENIOR
FaXOyEb.jpg


Shot Distribution: 22% Rim / 41% Mid-Range / 37% 3pt
  • Big minutes, plays 83% of the game.
  • Excellent assist rate (#208)
  • Good steal rate (#426)
  • Shoots only 67% from the line.
  • But an excellent 3pt shooter 42% (#116)
  • Much like Buddy, he will pull up from NBA range all the time, and still knock down 41%.
  • Takes a huge number of shots in the mid-range, where he only shoots 34%.
  • Hasn’t been playing quite as well down the stretch.

JORDAN WOODARD (6-0) JUNIOR
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Shot Distribution: 26% Rim / 25% Mid-Range / 49% 3pt
  • Plays 74% of the game.
  • Yet another excellent shooter (#336 True shooting)
  • Excellent assist rate (#382)
  • Excellent steal rate (#131)
  • Draws a ton of fouls, 4 / 40 minutes, and knocks down 81% at the foul line (#255)
  • Shoots 46% from 3pt (#20)
  • And yet again pulls up all the time from NBA range and still shoots 46%
  • But shoots only 29% mid-range and 47% at the rim.
  • Playing excellent in the tournament.

RYAN SPANGLER (6-8) SENIOR
kbi7wga.jpg

Shot Distribution: 55% Rim / 12% Mid-Range / 34% 3pt
  • Plays 82% of the game.
  • Excellent shooter for a big man. (#107 True shooting)
  • Best rebounder on the team (yes better than Lattin). #337 Offensive / #188 Defensive.
  • Surprisingly blocks nobody.
  • Never gets into foul trouble.
  • Not a good foul shooter (61%)
  • Yet somehow is also a very good 3pt shooter at 36%.
  • Very efficient on 2pt shots (#25) because he shoots almost all at the rim.
  • Suddenly taking far fewer 3pt shots during the tournament and is 0-3.

KHADEEM LATTIN (6-9) SOPH
HkaH1sQ.jpg

Shot Distribution: 65% Rim / 34% Mid-Range / 1% 3pt
  • Plays 55% of the game, in part because he gets 5.4 fouls / 40 minutes.
  • Good offensive rebounder, decent defensive one.
  • Excellent shot blocker (#28)
  • Shoots only 55% from the line.
  • Plays within himself on offense, gets most of his shots at the rim where he connects on 69%.
  • Only a 32% shooter in the mid-range.
  • You want him to get into foul trouble, because their remaining big men McNeace and Manyang are not nearly the same player.

Other thoughts…
  • Get very little out of their bench (#331 in bench minutes). Kruger will rely heavily on his trio of guards and Spangler.
  • This team has never played in a football stadium.
  • Per Kenpom, in 16 college basketball games at NRG Stadium , teams have shot 32.3%. 34.3% is the d1 average this year. However you usually only play in football stadiums if you are good… and those teams shot 36.3% on the season. The take away here is that the stadium lowers 3pt percentage by roughly 4%. Not huge but hey, maybe it will stop Buddy from pulling up at NBA range. The only worse place to shoot is an aircraft carrier. Scrolling through old box scores it seems some players are unaffected, while others (sometimes even elite shooters) can’t hit anything in NRG.

AROUND COLLEGE BB

  • The ACC will earn at least $39.9 from this NCAA tournament. Cheating definitely doesn’t pay.
  • Again to the preseason poll. In order it was: UNC, Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Wichita State, Villanova. The preseason poll is the most predictive poll of the eventual champion.
  • Josh Hart checks in at #5 in Kenpom’s Player of The Year Standings.
  • Villanova is back to #1 in Kenpom (#4 Offense / #7 Defense). Our raw rating has surpassed last year’s team for the first time this season.
  • Kenpom awards a MVP for every game based upon an algorithm that rewards efficient scoring and strong overall stats. In 38 games this year, a Villanova player was the game MVP 31 times. That is impressive by itself, but what is truly amazing is that 7 different players have earned a game MVP.
    • Hart 10
    • Ochefu 7
    • Jenkins 6
    • Arch 3
    • Brunson 2
    • Bridges 2
    • Reynolds 1

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It’s been an amazing season.
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