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#3, #4, and #5 all lose

another crazy night in college hoops. Of the three, UNC really laid an egg. They are an amazingly dumb team. Duke is playing with no bench, Plumlee got 4th foul with 12 minutes to go, Johnson has been killing Dule all night. So what happens in last five minutes. UNC guards ignore their big men and jack up horrible shots. Berry and Paige should be ashamed of themselves.

Monmouth - Iona game

I went to the game last night. Bentil was there. He was clearly routing for Monmouth so I guess he has a friend there. Surprised he'd come all the way down to NJ even if they have the weekend off.

Monmouth really laid an egg. We would beat either of those teams by 20 plus. No idea how the heck they beat ND or Georgetown.

About the Big 5

I absolutely really love what Jay has done with the Big 5.
He owns them.
Second time that he's on a 14 wining streak.
He's 48-12 against them.
And some of you guys wanna stop playing them. That's crazy talk.
Just keep on beating on them all like a drum.
The margin of victory is also laughable.
Just read today's Dana's article.
The record is just unbelievable.
Jay is too classy to gloat or say anything too extravagant but I will:
"Hey Big 5, you're all my bitches!"

3 BE games on 2/20 ...

12:00 PM XAVIER at Georgetown (FOX) (kenpom - 75-73 Xavier - 58% chance of X win)

2:00 PM MARQUETTE at DePaul (Fox Sportsnet) (kenpom - 71-70 - 53% chance of Marq win)

2:30 PM Butler at Villanova (FOX) (kenpom - 78-66 Villanova - 88% chance of VU win)

Interesting that kenpom has this one so close. GTown did win at Xavier ... do they have the confidence to do it again? Or are the Hoyas beaten down from from losing 5 of their last 6 (with the only win at Home against St. John's. @X and home vs Creighton (in a game that the Jays handed to GTown on a silver platter) are the only good wins for the Hoyas in conference. They sit at 7-7 in the league (14-13 overall) and desperately need a string of Ws if they are going to even feign being back on the bubble. If Xavier is serious about trying to unseat 'Nova from the top perch in the BE - they need to show the onions to revenge their only home loss of the year. They are projected to finish 3 games behind Nova in the standings but are only 1.5 back right now and could alter that projection a little with a win.

The Marq - DePaul game is all but meaningless really.

Butler has fought back to 7-7 in the league and Bulldog fans are probably thinking a split of @Villanova and @ Georgetown could be all they need before returning home to close with SHU and Marq with a shot at finishing above .500. 'Nova wants to have a Senior Day celebration that is unmarred by an L. The Xavier - Villanova showdown on Wednesday would certainly be better for the league if both VU and X win on Saturday and enter the game with the highest rankings possible. Butler has the offensive firepower to upset the Cats if they lose focus on this game. 'Nova held Butler to 55 points at Butler earlier this season but Kelan Martin has really emerged since that game. He shot 1-8 from the floor with 2 points in the first game against the Cats. 'Nova did a good job of limiting the # of touches for Dunham in the first outing as well. That will be harder to do this time as both Martin and even Austin Etherington have proven they can be that third and fourth scorer. Andrew Chrabascz has struggled offensively in away games and against X/Nova.

So Butler, huh?

We do have a game tomorrow.

Anyway, Butler can score but are soft defensively. Butler is 0-5 vs. Nova/X/Providence and are 2-5 on the road in the Big East, with their only wins coming against...yup, you guessed it...@ Depaul and @ SJU.

Butler averages 80 points a game...when they score less than 80, they are 7-7. When they score under 70, they are 1-6. It doesn't happen often, but when they do, they aren't good.

Minus their first game against The Citidel where they had 98 possessions, they average about 70 per game. They are extremely efficient offensively with an ORtg of 114.9, but a bunch of their guys had a much better OOC than conference games.

Kelan Martin, Roosevelt Jones and Andrew Chrbasz are all playing worse in conference, from an efficiency standpoint, and that makes sense since they are 7-7 in conference. The lack of confidence in Tyler Lewis has forced Jones to play PG, though it could also have been since Lewis sustained a concussion. Either way, he's playing better when his minutes have been reduced to around 15 minutes a game and has 0 turnovers in the last 5 games, though he only has 18 for the season anyway.

Their main lineup is Jones, Dunham, Martin and 2 of Chrasbaz, Tyler Weidman and Jordan Gathers. Austin Eitherington, Jackson Davis and Tyler Lewis round out their rotation, though I only expect them to go 7.5 tomorrow. (Not playing Davis and playing 1 of Eitherington or Lewis, unless there's foul trouble)

This team, to me, is simliar to Temple with a bit more talent on the wing and less talent at guard. We'll probably guard them the same way we did before with Archi on Jones and Brunson on Dunham. Hart will likely start out on Martin, but Jenkins could guard him as well. Jenkins will guard Charbascz...but more or less, we'll just automatically switch everything, per usual.

This is the type of game we need to step on their throats ASAP because their fire power, even down 15 with 3 minutes left, they can win.

Senior day will make it tough for any opposing team, but this is a dangerous team that is fighting for a NCAA birth...winning this game just might give them one as they are very close right now.

Butler Preview

Kenpom #43 (#16 Offense / #130 Defense)

18-8

Good Wins: #30 Cincinnati, #88 Tennessee, #4 Purdue, @#31 Seton Hall, #45 Creighton

Losses: #10 Miami, #54 Providence (home & away), #9 Xavier (home & away), @#45 Creighton, @#106 Marquette.


SINCE WE LEFT THEM
  • Butler is 6-4 since we last played them, with notable wins at Seton Hall and at home against Creighton.
  • But they also lost at Marquette, at Creighton, and missed opportunities to take down Xavier and Providence.
  • The offense has stepped back a hair, but the defense has improved substantially, but still is ranked #130

OFFENSE
MRmIMUp.jpg


Shot Distribution: 36% Rim / 34% Mid-range / 30% Three
  • This is an elite offense (#16)
  • They are the #89 2pt shooting team
  • #47 3pt shooting team (38%)
  • Don’t turn it over (#11)
  • Never turn it over via the steal (#5)
  • They don’t shoot too many threes and they get to the line at an average rate.
  • An unusually low assist rate of 52% considering they are an elite offense. (Average is 53% and Villanova is 60%)
DEFENSE
QZl7D7Y.jpg


Shot Distribution: 32% Rim / 30% Mid-Range / 38% Three
  • Defense is improved, but still not a strength (#130)
  • Nothing jumps out as exceptional good or bad, this team is just a little above average defensively.
THE STARS

ROOSEVELT JONES (6-4) Senior
YUsSsmG.jpg


Shot Distribution: 54% Rim / 46% Mid-Range / 0% Three
  • Most interesting shot chart in the game
  • Shouting report is same as always… plays huge minutes, shoots an unbelievable number of shots, gets the free throw line at a high rate.
  • Believe it or not all of his stats are up this year… shooting 48% from two and 72% from the line (previously a struggle for him).
  • Drink every time the announcer says he has “old man game” (or don’t you’ll be hammered in the first half)
  • Game is also more well rounded this year, in conference he is #8 in assist rate, #7 in steals rate, #18 in defensive rebounding… all while playing 87% of the game.
  • With the struggles of Tyler Lewis, it’s Jones running the offense a lot of the time for this team.
  • Make him shoot the floater or spot up, he only shoots 34% Mid-Range verses 60% at the rim.

    KELLEN DUNHAM (6-6) Senior
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Shot Distribution: 19% Rim / 28% Mid-Range / 54% Three
  • An unconscionable shooter
  • Last time we played he was shooting only 33% from three, but is now all the way up to 41% (and on the same volume as Jenkins). He has shot 53% since our last meeting. The #1 3pt shooter in the Big East.
  • Playing 79% of the game.
  • Happy he is a senior and he won’t light us up anymore.

KELAN MARTIN (6-6) Soph
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Shot Distribution: 31% Rim / 43% Mid-Range / 27% Three
  • A budding star with a well-rounded game
  • Taking the most shots in the Big East
  • Shooting 41% from three
  • Excellent rebounder #13 offensive & #6 defensive in conference
  • Draws tons of fouls (#13 in BE)
  • Shoots an excellent 84% from FT in conference
  • Has had 7 games of 20+ points but had his worst game of the year against Villanova last time, only scoring 2pts.

TYLER LEWIS (5-11) Junior
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Shot Distribution: 24% Rim / 29% Mid-Range / 47% Three

  • Transfer from NC State, where in two years he never got into a game.
  • Minutes have really gone down as the season has progressed.
  • Shoots a tone of threes (47% of his shots)

  • They beat Purdue, who is still the #1 Defense in the nation and scored 1.03 points per possession. Take them seriously for this reason, but not too seriously, Purdue is a very simple offense to scout / disrupt.
  • One of the few teams we will generally be taller than, but keep in mind that they are the 56th best offensive rebounding team.
  • Getting very little out of their bench this year (#304 in bench minutes)

AROUND COLLEGE BB

  • Maryland finally goes down. Even better, Minnesota was ranked #180 going into the game. For some perspective, DePaul is #179 and St. Johns #234.
  • Rutgers now has sole possession of the worst team in the BIG10.
  • Testing the no good teams narrative… Villanova maintains the top spot in Kenpom, however they would have ranked as the #7 team in basketball last year, one spot behind last year’s Villanova team. Additionally the #50 team this year would have ranked #41 last year... the difference in quality between #1 and #50 really has flattened out significantly.
  • Villanova has the 2nd highest efficiency at the rim, behind only UNC.
  • For all the talk about how amazing Villanova is in the Mid-Range, we are only converting at 38% which is #37 in the country.
  • Guard U defends the hoop 10th best in the country.
  • Villanova is very good defending the entire court really… except for corner threes, where we rank #89 and allow opponents to shoot 41%.

An idea for all brunch attendees

Since you are all going to enjoy the wonderful brunch free due to the generosity of Eric and Rivals, how about making a commensurate donation to Villanova or the Villanova Athletic Fund?

Pick your college, pick a team that you want to support, or just contribute to the general fund. Nobody is going to know the amount or whether you did it, so don't be embarassed if you are only kicking in a few bucks. Every little bit helps.

https://www1.villanova.edu/villanova/advancement/development/athletic.html

http://www1.villanova.edu/villanova/advancement/development/annualfund.html

David Milch - Degenerate Gambler

Great article on the financial ruin of David Milch, creator of NYPD Blue, Deadwood, John From Cincinnati, & Luck.

Yale grad, four Emmy Awards, a 22-acre spread on the Vineyard, a 7,500sf pad in Brentwood, but just couldn't stay away from the ponies....he cashed checks issued by his business managers alone totaling nearly $25,000,000 at various racetracks.



http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/david-milch-made-100m-gambled-866184

Where we are elite

I hear over and over and over how Nova does not have elite size/talent/athleticism like Kentucky/Kansas/Duke/UNC, etc. Let's say that is true, since it supports my next thought.

Given that we do not have elite size/talent/athleticism, it is quite obvious to me that we have elite, and quite possibly the best in the country, COACHING. I don't know any other way to explain what we are seeing this year.

We lost 2 seniors and a 3rd starter, that everyone agreed would create a big hit in terms of defense and rebounding. But if you look at our performance on the court since the start of the BE season, we are strongest in defense AND rebounding. That is all coaching and effort.
  • The staff, against pretty much the entire board's (myself included) continued to work on zone defensive schemes early in the season, and now they sprinkle in that rollie-style match-up zone throughout the game, AND IT WORKS.
  • We more often than not send all 5 guys to the boards to secure defensive boards, sacrificing fastbreaks but reducing opponent possessions.
  • We typically only allow 1 guy to crash the offensive glass, and make it very difficult for opponents to generate fastbreaks of their own or catch us out of position. Remember how many times OK scored from deep in transition? That really doesn't happen much anymore. I did think we slipped a little against Temple late in the game, but the game was so out of reach at times I think our guys just stepped off the gas more than they should or typically do.
  • We own loose balls. This is all effort, and we have seen it from Arch and Hart day 1. But you can see how everyone attacks the ball any time it is remotely possible to snatch it from the other team. That is coaching.
For a team that cannot shoot consistently from deep, we still get the respect of the other teams that we can really hurt you from deep, and even without great athletes or ball handlers or above-the-rim 5-men, we are 4th in the country in 2P FG%. 4th! We are 15th in the country in offensive efficiency even though we shoot 32.5% from deep. Why? We take care of the ball, we don't give up extra possessions, we make our FT's, and we maximize opportunities that result from spreading the floor with shooters. That is COACHING. We do this every single game, and it is very hard to take us out of that "system".

I would like to add that I think we are also elite in the effort we bring forth every game. You see so many teams lose to teams they shouldn't...and we have been there ourselves over the years. But not last year, and not this year. Our guys play hard every single game, especially on defense. This of course is also a result of coaching and getting our guys to buy into a style of play that may not look as sexy as Kansas, or OK or UNC, but it is a winning formula and it has given us the chance to sit on top of every poll and computer # there is. We do all this without a roster of top 25 talent. What a wonderful time to be a Nova fan.
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