The coming week will start to set a focus on what possibilities Nova has left for an outside shot at an NCAA bid. ESPN's Charlie Creme's bracketology as of January 7th had us in the tournament as a #10 seed, but I doubt that he will have us in based upon his updated projection that should be coming out soon. The overall quality of the Big East is down this year and I don't think you can count on more than six or maybe seven teams getting bids this year.
Home games against Seton Hall and Providence this week are must wins to keep that hope alive. That would give us a 5-5 conference record heading into the DePaul game next Tuesday facing a team that will be no better than 5-5 at that point and possibly 4-6 with games this week at Louisville and home against Notre Dame. DePaul is just a shadow of the team that had at the beginning of the season due to injuries and Nova should have an even shot to win that one also.
To have a potential NCAA resume, I think this team needs eight Big East wins and at least an opening round win in the Tournament to give us an overall record of 19-12 in Division I games. We will have an outstanding RPI at year end so that shouldn't be a problem. Better yet would be to finish 8-8 and get a nine seed (rather than a #8) in the B/E tournament, meaning a first round game against the #16 seed and a second round game against the #8 seed which should be a winnable game for us, potentially getting us to 20 wins on the year and into the B/E quarter-finals for some national exposure.
How do we get to 8-8 in the B/E? Absolute must wins agains Seton Hall and Providence this week (note that Providence is 7-0 in Saturday games this year). A must win game to end the season at home on Senior Night against Syracuse and a road win at South Florida (never beaten them before). That leaves us with another win needed against DePaul or St. John's on the road, or a home win against Georgetown or Rutgers.
The team looks capable but three tough losses on the road to Big East teams that gave them opportunities to win (West Virginia, Marquette and Louisville) really hurt and the team has yet to show the offensive consistency (especially from beyond the arc) to put teams away when given the chance. We made all three of those teams look awful, but weren't able to put enough points up to win the games. The Marquette loss was especially galling since it never should have come down to the last five minutes of that game.
High hopes or maybe wishful thinking could all be dashed early on with a poor performance against either team this week. If so, it's off to the WNIT for this team after the Big East tournament. This team could go two or three games into that tournament. In any event, significant post-season tournament game experience will prove helpful in going further next season.
Since there has been very little input to the board this year I am limiting my posts to better use my time elsewhere. I will continue to post up any significant news or comments occasionally.
UPDATE: Creme's updated bracketology for 1/30 still has Nova in as a #11 seed, facing Nebraska down at Maryland. Ugh, recalling our last NCAA game there. Interestingly he has us on the bubble as one of the last four in, while West Virginia is one of the first four out.
This post was edited on 1/31 10:05 PM by tpenter
This post was edited on 1/31 10:07 PM by tpenter
Home games against Seton Hall and Providence this week are must wins to keep that hope alive. That would give us a 5-5 conference record heading into the DePaul game next Tuesday facing a team that will be no better than 5-5 at that point and possibly 4-6 with games this week at Louisville and home against Notre Dame. DePaul is just a shadow of the team that had at the beginning of the season due to injuries and Nova should have an even shot to win that one also.
To have a potential NCAA resume, I think this team needs eight Big East wins and at least an opening round win in the Tournament to give us an overall record of 19-12 in Division I games. We will have an outstanding RPI at year end so that shouldn't be a problem. Better yet would be to finish 8-8 and get a nine seed (rather than a #8) in the B/E tournament, meaning a first round game against the #16 seed and a second round game against the #8 seed which should be a winnable game for us, potentially getting us to 20 wins on the year and into the B/E quarter-finals for some national exposure.
How do we get to 8-8 in the B/E? Absolute must wins agains Seton Hall and Providence this week (note that Providence is 7-0 in Saturday games this year). A must win game to end the season at home on Senior Night against Syracuse and a road win at South Florida (never beaten them before). That leaves us with another win needed against DePaul or St. John's on the road, or a home win against Georgetown or Rutgers.
The team looks capable but three tough losses on the road to Big East teams that gave them opportunities to win (West Virginia, Marquette and Louisville) really hurt and the team has yet to show the offensive consistency (especially from beyond the arc) to put teams away when given the chance. We made all three of those teams look awful, but weren't able to put enough points up to win the games. The Marquette loss was especially galling since it never should have come down to the last five minutes of that game.
High hopes or maybe wishful thinking could all be dashed early on with a poor performance against either team this week. If so, it's off to the WNIT for this team after the Big East tournament. This team could go two or three games into that tournament. In any event, significant post-season tournament game experience will prove helpful in going further next season.
Since there has been very little input to the board this year I am limiting my posts to better use my time elsewhere. I will continue to post up any significant news or comments occasionally.
UPDATE: Creme's updated bracketology for 1/30 still has Nova in as a #11 seed, facing Nebraska down at Maryland. Ugh, recalling our last NCAA game there. Interestingly he has us on the bubble as one of the last four in, while West Virginia is one of the first four out.
This post was edited on 1/31 10:05 PM by tpenter
This post was edited on 1/31 10:07 PM by tpenter