Pretty important game coming up on Wednesday against St. John's. Is it a must-win for Nova's NCAA Tournament hopes?
I think 19 wins will be enough to get into the tournament but would still be sweating on Selection Sunday. 20 wins and I think Nova is comfortably in the field.
Currently sitting at 11 wins with 13 games to play, things are a little tighter than one would like. There aren't nearly as many "gimme" games on the Big East slate as maybe were expected prior to the season, and Nova has already played two of the few that remained expected wins (DePaul twice). The Cats have two games that on paper appear gimmies, both against Georgetown, which is currently ranked No. 175 in KenPom (Nova, however, is just 1-2 against teams ranked between 100-199 in KenPom). Outside of the Georgetown games, no remaining Nova opponent is currently ranked worse than No. 56 on KP (Nova is 6-4 against KenPom top 70 teams so far this season).
If you count the two G-Town games as wins (dangerous, I know), that gets you to 13. So you need at least six, probably seven, to be comfortable come Selection Sunday. KenPom projects Nova to go 5-6 in those 11 games (including projecting a loss to St. John's on Wednesday), finishing with a record of 18-13. Beyond Wednesday, there are a few projected losses that would seem to be games Nova could reasonably steal (road games at Butler, Seton Hall, Xavier and Providence), but there are also a couple projected wins that you certainly can't put in the bank (Marquette, Creighton). It's worth noting that Nova carries a better KenPom ranking than 10 of its final 13 opponents, but between some tough road games and not knowing what Villanova team will show up on any given night, it's difficult to chalk up any remaining game as a definite win.
Obviously, a loss on Wednesday doesn't mathematically eliminate the Cats. But they are playing with a razor-thin margin for error right now, with bad losses to St. Joe's, Penn and Drexel and near-misses against Kansas State and UConn looming large. While Wednesday's game might not technically a must-win, in my opinion it's about as close as you can get unofficially.
What do you think?
I think 19 wins will be enough to get into the tournament but would still be sweating on Selection Sunday. 20 wins and I think Nova is comfortably in the field.
Currently sitting at 11 wins with 13 games to play, things are a little tighter than one would like. There aren't nearly as many "gimme" games on the Big East slate as maybe were expected prior to the season, and Nova has already played two of the few that remained expected wins (DePaul twice). The Cats have two games that on paper appear gimmies, both against Georgetown, which is currently ranked No. 175 in KenPom (Nova, however, is just 1-2 against teams ranked between 100-199 in KenPom). Outside of the Georgetown games, no remaining Nova opponent is currently ranked worse than No. 56 on KP (Nova is 6-4 against KenPom top 70 teams so far this season).
If you count the two G-Town games as wins (dangerous, I know), that gets you to 13. So you need at least six, probably seven, to be comfortable come Selection Sunday. KenPom projects Nova to go 5-6 in those 11 games (including projecting a loss to St. John's on Wednesday), finishing with a record of 18-13. Beyond Wednesday, there are a few projected losses that would seem to be games Nova could reasonably steal (road games at Butler, Seton Hall, Xavier and Providence), but there are also a couple projected wins that you certainly can't put in the bank (Marquette, Creighton). It's worth noting that Nova carries a better KenPom ranking than 10 of its final 13 opponents, but between some tough road games and not knowing what Villanova team will show up on any given night, it's difficult to chalk up any remaining game as a definite win.
Obviously, a loss on Wednesday doesn't mathematically eliminate the Cats. But they are playing with a razor-thin margin for error right now, with bad losses to St. Joe's, Penn and Drexel and near-misses against Kansas State and UConn looming large. While Wednesday's game might not technically a must-win, in my opinion it's about as close as you can get unofficially.
What do you think?