Growing number of SPs on trade market could hurt Phillies
Corey Seidman
In April, the idea that Cole Hamels could still be a Phillie on Aug. 1 would have been met with astonishment. The entire point of the 2015 season for the Phils was to develop young players, including those expected to be acquired for their biggest trade chip, Hamels.
But here we are on July 23, eight days away from the non-waiver trade deadline, and despite cautious optimism from Ruben Amaro Jr. that a deal can be struck before 4 p.m. on July 31, three recent developments have complicated the market:
Whose decision is it really?
There's the crowded front-office picture, with Amaro still serving as GM and making phone calls, Pat Gillick remaining president and ultimate decision-maker until the season ends, and Andy MacPhail waiting in the wings to take over for Gillick. It seems the Phils will give MacPhail some input in trade talks, but how much? What happens if Gillick prefers one trade package and MacPhail likes another? Does the president on his way out make the franchise-shifting trade, or does he step aside and compromise with MacPhail?
The uncertain dynamic has resulted in the increased belief that Hamels could be held onto until the winter. If he's not injured over the season's final two months, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Shopping Hamels at the winter meetings would allow MacPhail to talk with as many as 29 other teams, as opposed to the handful that are interested and equipped to add a player as talented and expensive as Hamels at the deadline.
It would also give MacPhail more time to survey the market and pick which package he likes best. Tough to argue with a more deliberate approach than what Amaro took with Cliff Lee and the Mariners the last time the Phillies traded an ace.
Sure, most Phillies fans would be disappointed if the deadline comes and goes with no Hamels trade, but he'll be owed about $7.5 million less this winter than he'd be owed if acquired on July 31, which should also increase his trade value.
It would be a risk to hold onto Hamels, though, no doubt about that. The Phils were unable to trade Lee at last year's deadline, and later that night he went down with an elbow injury that has been catastrophic to the Phils' rebuild. A healthy Lee would have brought back some nice pieces. If Hamels were also to go down ... well, let's not even think about that.
More arms available
This point is more important than the other two. There are just way more starting pitchers available right now than expected.
Entering the season, it looked like the July market for starters would include Hamels, Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, Washington's Doug Fister and Oakland's Scott Kazmir.
But the Marlins struggled and now Dan Haren and Mat Latos are available.
The Rangers have fallen flat, making Yovani Gallardo and Colby Lewis potential trade pieces.
The Brewers could move Mike Fiers.
The Padres could trade one or more of James Shields, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner.
The White Sox didn't contend the way they hoped, which could result in another Jeff Samardzija trade.
The Braves might think about testing the market on the young and talented Julio Teheran, who's disappointed in 2015.
And let's not forget about Tigers ace David Price, a free agent destined for close to $200 million this winter, who could be moved by a wildly disappointing Detroit club.
All of these available arms have shifted the market. Is Hamels still the white whale?
Of the aforementioned pitchers, Price, Cueto, Kazmir, Leake, Fister, Gallardo, Samardzija, Kennedy, Latos and Haren are all rentals. All of them will be free agents this winter and rentals don't have nearly as much value as they did under the old free-agent compensation system. Prior to 2013, a team could trade for a rental, extend him the qualifying offer after the season, and if he didn't sign it, the spurned team could get a first- or second-round draft pick from the club that signed the player.
That is no longer allowed and that's why trades like a half-season of Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler no longer take place.
That should all make Hamels more valuable than the others, right? Not necessarily, considering some of the most starting pitching-needy teams — Houston, Toronto, Kansas City — are not exactly equipped to take on years of salary. A rental like Price or Cueto might make more sense for the Astros, Blue Jays and Royals, especially since rentals figure to demand less of a prospect haul than a player under years of control.
(Update, 1:12 p.m.: Looks like the Astros did indeed prefer a rental. They acquired Kazmir from the Athletics on Thursday for three prospects.)
This is why you're still seeing the Dodgers, Red Sox and Rangers mentioned as the most realistic fits for Hamels. Even though Boston and Texas are pretty much out of the race, both teams could use Hamels in 2016 and beyond.
That doesn't mean Hamels won't be moved, it just means that those interested clubs will probably try to add a solid rental pitcher first until realizing the price will still be high on Price, Cueto and some of the others.
The sheer number of available starting pitchers should delay any final decisions until close to the 4 p.m. deadline on July 31. GMs will try to drive the prices down until it's too late and they're backed into a corner and need to make their move.
Huge start upcoming
No executive in his right mind will alter his opinion of Hamels based on two untimely poor starts in July. Hamels has the longest active streak in the National League of 30-plus starts and 190-plus innings, making him not only one of the game's best 15 pitchers, but also one of the most durable.
But what happens if Hamels is rocked again at Wrigley Field this Saturday? Would three straight clunkers be too troublesome a trend for a GM to stomach?
Worth noting that Saturday's game starts at 4:05 p.m. and that Hamels has always been much worse during day games than night games. At night, Hamels has a career 3.13 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. During the day, he has a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, with a lower strikeout rate, a higher walk rate, a higher home run rate and an opponents' batting average 20 points higher than at night.
Hamels, and the Phillies, badly need one of his seven-inning, two-run performances this weekend.
Corey Seidman
In April, the idea that Cole Hamels could still be a Phillie on Aug. 1 would have been met with astonishment. The entire point of the 2015 season for the Phils was to develop young players, including those expected to be acquired for their biggest trade chip, Hamels.
But here we are on July 23, eight days away from the non-waiver trade deadline, and despite cautious optimism from Ruben Amaro Jr. that a deal can be struck before 4 p.m. on July 31, three recent developments have complicated the market:
Whose decision is it really?
There's the crowded front-office picture, with Amaro still serving as GM and making phone calls, Pat Gillick remaining president and ultimate decision-maker until the season ends, and Andy MacPhail waiting in the wings to take over for Gillick. It seems the Phils will give MacPhail some input in trade talks, but how much? What happens if Gillick prefers one trade package and MacPhail likes another? Does the president on his way out make the franchise-shifting trade, or does he step aside and compromise with MacPhail?
The uncertain dynamic has resulted in the increased belief that Hamels could be held onto until the winter. If he's not injured over the season's final two months, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Shopping Hamels at the winter meetings would allow MacPhail to talk with as many as 29 other teams, as opposed to the handful that are interested and equipped to add a player as talented and expensive as Hamels at the deadline.
It would also give MacPhail more time to survey the market and pick which package he likes best. Tough to argue with a more deliberate approach than what Amaro took with Cliff Lee and the Mariners the last time the Phillies traded an ace.
Sure, most Phillies fans would be disappointed if the deadline comes and goes with no Hamels trade, but he'll be owed about $7.5 million less this winter than he'd be owed if acquired on July 31, which should also increase his trade value.
It would be a risk to hold onto Hamels, though, no doubt about that. The Phils were unable to trade Lee at last year's deadline, and later that night he went down with an elbow injury that has been catastrophic to the Phils' rebuild. A healthy Lee would have brought back some nice pieces. If Hamels were also to go down ... well, let's not even think about that.
More arms available
This point is more important than the other two. There are just way more starting pitchers available right now than expected.
Entering the season, it looked like the July market for starters would include Hamels, Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, Washington's Doug Fister and Oakland's Scott Kazmir.
But the Marlins struggled and now Dan Haren and Mat Latos are available.
The Rangers have fallen flat, making Yovani Gallardo and Colby Lewis potential trade pieces.
The Brewers could move Mike Fiers.
The Padres could trade one or more of James Shields, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner.
The White Sox didn't contend the way they hoped, which could result in another Jeff Samardzija trade.
The Braves might think about testing the market on the young and talented Julio Teheran, who's disappointed in 2015.
And let's not forget about Tigers ace David Price, a free agent destined for close to $200 million this winter, who could be moved by a wildly disappointing Detroit club.
All of these available arms have shifted the market. Is Hamels still the white whale?
Of the aforementioned pitchers, Price, Cueto, Kazmir, Leake, Fister, Gallardo, Samardzija, Kennedy, Latos and Haren are all rentals. All of them will be free agents this winter and rentals don't have nearly as much value as they did under the old free-agent compensation system. Prior to 2013, a team could trade for a rental, extend him the qualifying offer after the season, and if he didn't sign it, the spurned team could get a first- or second-round draft pick from the club that signed the player.
That is no longer allowed and that's why trades like a half-season of Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler no longer take place.
That should all make Hamels more valuable than the others, right? Not necessarily, considering some of the most starting pitching-needy teams — Houston, Toronto, Kansas City — are not exactly equipped to take on years of salary. A rental like Price or Cueto might make more sense for the Astros, Blue Jays and Royals, especially since rentals figure to demand less of a prospect haul than a player under years of control.
(Update, 1:12 p.m.: Looks like the Astros did indeed prefer a rental. They acquired Kazmir from the Athletics on Thursday for three prospects.)
This is why you're still seeing the Dodgers, Red Sox and Rangers mentioned as the most realistic fits for Hamels. Even though Boston and Texas are pretty much out of the race, both teams could use Hamels in 2016 and beyond.
That doesn't mean Hamels won't be moved, it just means that those interested clubs will probably try to add a solid rental pitcher first until realizing the price will still be high on Price, Cueto and some of the others.
The sheer number of available starting pitchers should delay any final decisions until close to the 4 p.m. deadline on July 31. GMs will try to drive the prices down until it's too late and they're backed into a corner and need to make their move.
Huge start upcoming
No executive in his right mind will alter his opinion of Hamels based on two untimely poor starts in July. Hamels has the longest active streak in the National League of 30-plus starts and 190-plus innings, making him not only one of the game's best 15 pitchers, but also one of the most durable.
But what happens if Hamels is rocked again at Wrigley Field this Saturday? Would three straight clunkers be too troublesome a trend for a GM to stomach?
Worth noting that Saturday's game starts at 4:05 p.m. and that Hamels has always been much worse during day games than night games. At night, Hamels has a career 3.13 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. During the day, he has a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, with a lower strikeout rate, a higher walk rate, a higher home run rate and an opponents' batting average 20 points higher than at night.
Hamels, and the Phillies, badly need one of his seven-inning, two-run performances this weekend.
