Here is where we are after today.
Kansas is going to be a #1 seed unless they totally fall apart. (At least two bad losses.) If they run the table they are the overall #1 seed and will go to Chicago.
The Jayhawks are #1 RPI, #4 Kenpom and are 11-3 v. the Top 50 they have beaten Oklahoma twice and Kentucky on a neutral court....Kansas is the nation's best team by any objective standard....beatable but the best on paper...
Oklahoma is a #2 seed today....they are #6 in both RPI and Kenpom 8-5 v. Top 50.....they will likely be a #1 seed if they run the table including the B12 Tourney...anything else and they get a #2 seed.
Villanova is a #1 seed today.....the Cats are #2 in both RPI and Kenpom have an SOS of 7 and no bad losses....the only blemish is a 6-4 record against the Top 50 and only one marquee victory...if the Cats win the BET they will be a #1 seed....they could also hold the #1 seed line with only one loss if it is in the BET semis or final depending on the results of the other conference tournaments...a #2 seed is a virtual lock...it would take two bad losses and other teams like West Virginia, Oregon and Miami winning their tourneys to fall to a #3 seed...getting the #1 seed in Philly basically means staying above Virginia (and maybe North Carolina would could go to Philly or Louisville). Nova also has a contender best 10-2 road record.
Xavier's loss today was huge. If Nova wins the BE by two games...Xavier's only potential path past the Cats is a BET win.....Xavier now looks like a #2 seed....RPI #5 (before the loss) and #12 Kenpom (before the loss)....8-1 record v. Top 50 is very impressive but only truly elite win was v. Nova....
Virginia has the most impressive resume after Kansas (and arguably Nova).....they are #3 in both RPI and Kenpom, 8-2 v. Top 50 and hold non conference wins over Villanova, West Virginia and California...the blemish is a 4-6 road record and the bad road losses @ VT, NC St. and GTech in mid January....they also are in 3rd place in the ACC....if the Hoos win the ACC Tourney they are a #1 lock......they are also the primary challenger for Philly.....Louisville and the ACC Tourney will tell their tale but they easily could be #2 or 3 overall on selection Sunday...
North Carolina is actually marginally overrated...the Heels are 9 RPI, 5 Kenpom but shockingly for an ACC leader only 3-5 v. the Top 50....if they win the ACC season and tourney they are a no brainer #1 seed but if they lose @ Duke or lose before the ACC Final they are a #2 seed....
Miami is the stealth candidate...the Canes are 7 RPI, 13 Kenpom and tied for first in the ACC...8-2 v. Top 50...if they run the table they could slide into the last #1 seed spot.(at the expense of UVA and NC)...today they are probably the weakest #2 seed...I expect them to be a 2 or 3 seed but...
The Big Ten is a bit of a mess....Indiana leads due to a ridiculously soft unbalanced schedule but is only on the 4 or 5 line today....Michigan State is the team to watch....Sparty is only #13 RPI but #1 Kenpom...they are 8-4 v. the top 50 and have only one bad loss....pre conference they beat Kansas, Louisville, Providence and Florida...I expect them to run the table and win the Big Ten Tourney...if they do they will be a #1 seed....any loss and they are a solid #2 seed...
Maryland is the overrated underacheiver here...the Terps are RPI 10 and Kenpom 20...like Indiana (who they host this week) they have had an easy Big Ten schedule...Maryland is 6-5 v. the Top 50 and 4-5 on the road....unless they get hot...they are a 3 seed...a #1 seed is not likely...
Iowa is fading and is RPI 20 Kenpom 14...the sweep of Sparty is their big resume feature but they still are only 6-6 v. Top 50....they will only be a 2 seed with a B10 Tourney win and look to be a 3 seed fading towards a 4 seed...
Worth mentioning are West Virginia who should be on the 2/3 line but can't reach the #1 line and the Oregon Ducks...the Ducks are #4 RPI but #19 Kenpom theyare 9-4 v. Top 50 with a winover Baylor non conference...I see the Ducks as a #2 seed in the West if they run the table, a #3 seed otherwise.....
In summary Villanova controls its destiny....run the table including the BET and #1 seed in Philly is a near lock...the Cats can probably afford a BET stumble and hold onto a #1 seed unless most of the other contenders run the table....with one loss Virginia could steal the Philly location.if they win the ACC Tourney..
Getting the #2 seed in Philly is tough to predict...it depends on where the Cats fall on the s curve, how much geographic preference v. splitting top teams from the same conference factors in....it certainly is better than random 25%, probably around or slightly better than 50%.
Brooklyn in the first two games is a virtual lock.
Kansas is going to be a #1 seed unless they totally fall apart. (At least two bad losses.) If they run the table they are the overall #1 seed and will go to Chicago.
The Jayhawks are #1 RPI, #4 Kenpom and are 11-3 v. the Top 50 they have beaten Oklahoma twice and Kentucky on a neutral court....Kansas is the nation's best team by any objective standard....beatable but the best on paper...
Oklahoma is a #2 seed today....they are #6 in both RPI and Kenpom 8-5 v. Top 50.....they will likely be a #1 seed if they run the table including the B12 Tourney...anything else and they get a #2 seed.
Villanova is a #1 seed today.....the Cats are #2 in both RPI and Kenpom have an SOS of 7 and no bad losses....the only blemish is a 6-4 record against the Top 50 and only one marquee victory...if the Cats win the BET they will be a #1 seed....they could also hold the #1 seed line with only one loss if it is in the BET semis or final depending on the results of the other conference tournaments...a #2 seed is a virtual lock...it would take two bad losses and other teams like West Virginia, Oregon and Miami winning their tourneys to fall to a #3 seed...getting the #1 seed in Philly basically means staying above Virginia (and maybe North Carolina would could go to Philly or Louisville). Nova also has a contender best 10-2 road record.
Xavier's loss today was huge. If Nova wins the BE by two games...Xavier's only potential path past the Cats is a BET win.....Xavier now looks like a #2 seed....RPI #5 (before the loss) and #12 Kenpom (before the loss)....8-1 record v. Top 50 is very impressive but only truly elite win was v. Nova....
Virginia has the most impressive resume after Kansas (and arguably Nova).....they are #3 in both RPI and Kenpom, 8-2 v. Top 50 and hold non conference wins over Villanova, West Virginia and California...the blemish is a 4-6 road record and the bad road losses @ VT, NC St. and GTech in mid January....they also are in 3rd place in the ACC....if the Hoos win the ACC Tourney they are a #1 lock......they are also the primary challenger for Philly.....Louisville and the ACC Tourney will tell their tale but they easily could be #2 or 3 overall on selection Sunday...
North Carolina is actually marginally overrated...the Heels are 9 RPI, 5 Kenpom but shockingly for an ACC leader only 3-5 v. the Top 50....if they win the ACC season and tourney they are a no brainer #1 seed but if they lose @ Duke or lose before the ACC Final they are a #2 seed....
Miami is the stealth candidate...the Canes are 7 RPI, 13 Kenpom and tied for first in the ACC...8-2 v. Top 50...if they run the table they could slide into the last #1 seed spot.(at the expense of UVA and NC)...today they are probably the weakest #2 seed...I expect them to be a 2 or 3 seed but...
The Big Ten is a bit of a mess....Indiana leads due to a ridiculously soft unbalanced schedule but is only on the 4 or 5 line today....Michigan State is the team to watch....Sparty is only #13 RPI but #1 Kenpom...they are 8-4 v. the top 50 and have only one bad loss....pre conference they beat Kansas, Louisville, Providence and Florida...I expect them to run the table and win the Big Ten Tourney...if they do they will be a #1 seed....any loss and they are a solid #2 seed...
Maryland is the overrated underacheiver here...the Terps are RPI 10 and Kenpom 20...like Indiana (who they host this week) they have had an easy Big Ten schedule...Maryland is 6-5 v. the Top 50 and 4-5 on the road....unless they get hot...they are a 3 seed...a #1 seed is not likely...
Iowa is fading and is RPI 20 Kenpom 14...the sweep of Sparty is their big resume feature but they still are only 6-6 v. Top 50....they will only be a 2 seed with a B10 Tourney win and look to be a 3 seed fading towards a 4 seed...
Worth mentioning are West Virginia who should be on the 2/3 line but can't reach the #1 line and the Oregon Ducks...the Ducks are #4 RPI but #19 Kenpom theyare 9-4 v. Top 50 with a winover Baylor non conference...I see the Ducks as a #2 seed in the West if they run the table, a #3 seed otherwise.....
In summary Villanova controls its destiny....run the table including the BET and #1 seed in Philly is a near lock...the Cats can probably afford a BET stumble and hold onto a #1 seed unless most of the other contenders run the table....with one loss Virginia could steal the Philly location.if they win the ACC Tourney..
Getting the #2 seed in Philly is tough to predict...it depends on where the Cats fall on the s curve, how much geographic preference v. splitting top teams from the same conference factors in....it certainly is better than random 25%, probably around or slightly better than 50%.
Brooklyn in the first two games is a virtual lock.
