Oklahoma Preview

ONIN2TO · Mar 29, 2016

OKLAHOMA (29-7)

Kenpom #5 (#13 Offense / #13 Defense)

Big Wins: #1 Villanova, #16 Iowa State (2x), #9 West Virginia (2x), #27 Baylor (2x), #19 Texas A&M, #11 Oregon.

Losses: #2 Kansas (2x), #16 Iowa State, #52 Kansas State, #51 Texas Tech, #33 Texas, #9 West Virginia

OFFENSE

Shot Distribution: 36% Rim / 23% Mid-Range / 40% 3pt

Kenpom #13
Very efficient shot selection
Play at a fast pace (#56)
#17 eFG%
#2 Three Point shooting team (43%) and they take a high volume (#60)
Do not get the foul line often (#262) but knock down 72% when they get there (#89)
Somewhat turnover prone (#177), especially steals (#303)
Average assist rate (#154)
Solid offensive rebounding (#131)

DEFENSE

Shot Distribution: 38% Rim / 26% Mid-Range / 36% 3pt

Kenpom #13
#31 defensive eFG%
Do not force many turnovers (#202)
But do block shots at a high rate (#33)
Do not rebound very well (#208)
Excellent keeping teams off of the foul line (#28)
Hold teams to low shooting percentages from everywhere on the court. 33% from Three (#27), 45% from Two (#38)
Extremely low assist rate (#9)

THE STARS

BUDDY HIELD (6-4) SENIOR

Shot Distribution: 33% Rim / 14% Mid-Range / 52% 3pt

After a bit of a mid-season swoon (on a very relative basis), Buddy is back up to the #2 player in the country according to Kenpom, just a hair behind Brice Johnson for the #1 spot.
Shoots 47% from 3pt range (#14). Shoots 43% from NBA Range, and 54% between the college and NBA lines.
Plays a ton of minutes, 88% of the game. And takes 31% of shots.
#8 True shooting in the nation.
Not a great assist rate.
Draws a ton of fouls 5.4 / 40 minutes and knocks down 88% from the line (#25)

ISAIAH COUSINS (6-4) SENIOR

Shot Distribution: 22% Rim / 41% Mid-Range / 37% 3pt

Big minutes, plays 83% of the game.
Excellent assist rate (#208)
Good steal rate (#426)
Shoots only 67% from the line.
But an excellent 3pt shooter 42% (#116)
Much like Buddy, he will pull up from NBA range all the time, and still knock down 41%.
Takes a huge number of shots in the mid-range, where he only shoots 34%.
Hasn’t been playing quite as well down the stretch.

JORDAN WOODARD (6-0) JUNIOR

Shot Distribution: 26% Rim / 25% Mid-Range / 49% 3pt

Plays 74% of the game.
Yet another excellent shooter (#336 True shooting)
Excellent assist rate (#382)
Excellent steal rate (#131)
Draws a ton of fouls, 4 / 40 minutes, and knocks down 81% at the foul line (#255)
Shoots 46% from 3pt (#20)
And yet again pulls up all the time from NBA range and still shoots 46%
But shoots only 29% mid-range and 47% at the rim.
Playing excellent in the tournament.

RYAN SPANGLER (6-8) SENIOR

Shot Distribution: 55% Rim / 12% Mid-Range / 34% 3pt

Plays 82% of the game.
Excellent shooter for a big man. (#107 True shooting)
Best rebounder on the team (yes better than Lattin). #337 Offensive / #188 Defensive.
Surprisingly blocks nobody.
Never gets into foul trouble.
Not a good foul shooter (61%)
Yet somehow is also a very good 3pt shooter at 36%.
Very efficient on 2pt shots (#25) because he shoots almost all at the rim.
Suddenly taking far fewer 3pt shots during the tournament and is 0-3.

KHADEEM LATTIN (6-9) SOPH

Shot Distribution: 65% Rim / 34% Mid-Range / 1% 3pt

Plays 55% of the game, in part because he gets 5.4 fouls / 40 minutes.
Good offensive rebounder, decent defensive one.
Excellent shot blocker (#28)
Shoots only 55% from the line.
Plays within himself on offense, gets most of his shots at the rim where he connects on 69%.
Only a 32% shooter in the mid-range.
You want him to get into foul trouble, because their remaining big men McNeace and Manyang are not nearly the same player.

Other thoughts…

Get very little out of their bench (#331 in bench minutes). Kruger will rely heavily on his trio of guards and Spangler.
This team has never played in a football stadium.
Per Kenpom, in 16 college basketball games at NRG Stadium , teams have shot 32.3%. 34.3% is the d1 average this year. However you usually only play in football stadiums if you are good… and those teams shot 36.3% on the season. The take away here is that the stadium lowers 3pt percentage by roughly 4%. Not huge but hey, maybe it will stop Buddy from pulling up at NBA range. The only worse place to shoot is an aircraft carrier. Scrolling through old box scores it seems some players are unaffected, while others (sometimes even elite shooters) can’t hit anything in NRG.

AROUND COLLEGE BB

The ACC will earn at least $39.9 from this NCAA tournament. Cheating definitely doesn’t pay.
Again to the preseason poll. In order it was: UNC, Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Wichita State, Villanova. The preseason poll is the most predictive poll of the eventual champion.
Josh Hart checks in at #5 in Kenpom’s Player of The Year Standings.
Villanova is back to #1 in Kenpom (#4 Offense / #7 Defense). Our raw rating has surpassed last year’s team for the first time this season.
Kenpom awards a MVP for every game based upon an algorithm that rewards efficient scoring and strong overall stats. In 38 games this year, a Villanova player was the game MVP 31 times. That is impressive by itself, but what is truly amazing is that 7 different players have earned a game MVP.
- Hart 10
- Ochefu 7
- Jenkins 6
- Arch 3
- Brunson 2
- Bridges 2
- Reynolds 1

It’s been an amazing season.

ghill03 · Mar 29, 2016