Update on Hamels

[adp98]

2:58pm: [/B]Philadelphia continues to ask for top catching prospect tweets Nightengale, with the Red Sox refusing to part with him in a deal for Hamels.
2:08pm: [/B]Though Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has said he expects tweets that five or six clubs are still trying to get their hands on the Philadelphia ace. However, no team has yet come close to making an offer that would entice the Phillies to part with the 31-year-old lefty.
Please note, Swihart is currently ranked somewhere in the 60-70 range in terms of prospects. No one is giving up a top ten prospect for Cole Hamels.

 

[obriend1]

Top catching prospect in baseball.

http://www.overthemonster.com/2015/1/27/7921605/blake-swihart-named-baseballs-best-catching-prospect-by-mlb-com

 

[wcburrs87]

Again, how many of the top ten prospects are on teams that are a reasonable landing spot for Hamels? Furthermore, whoever said he was getting a top 10 prospect in all of baseball? Umm, no one.

Teams are holding out here. Trying to get the Phillies to rush a trade for something of lower value. It will be much easier to fetch a better return come deadline time when potential teams know for sure they are that one piece away from making a true title run.

Not sure what the point of this post is.

 

[Sportsboss_ofnothing]

What a meaningless "update"

Go bounce quarters.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[adp98]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:
Again, how many of the top ten prospects are on teams that are a reasonable landing spot for Hamels? Furthermore, whoever said he was getting a top 10 prospect in all of baseball? Umm, no one.

Teams are holding out here. Trying to get the Phillies to rush a trade for something of lower value. It will be much easier to fetch a better return come deadline time when potential teams know for sure they are that one piece away from making a true title run.

Not sure what the point of this post is.

Actually Selmore specifically said he'd fetch a top ten prospect. This was how we began the wager conversation.

 

[wcburrs87]

And I promptly talked Selomore off that ledge. Again, look at the teams that currently hold the top prospects of any list. How many of them are legit trading partners here? C'mon, you're better than this. Also, the opinion of whoever wrote that really means nothing. Like you, he's simply playing the percentages.

 

[adp98]

Burrs, he's not playing the percentages. You still don't understand the value of cheap top 10 prospects. For example, the Nats would not grade Giolito for Hamels straight up. They woudn't do it because one guy is cheap for the next 6 years and the other guy is owed over $100 million. Anyway, my trolling of Phillie fans is done for the day. Have a good one.
This post was edited on 2/4 8:03 AM by adp98

 

[wcburrs87]

That specifically says eating money when it comes to Howard and Paplebon. Who didn't know that?

Dude, they are in no rush to give Hamels away. On the other hand, other teams don't need to be in a hurry to acquire him at this point. Could something happen between now and the season starting? Sure. But I'm on the record in saying that a potential trade is more likely to happen at the deadline. By this point opposing teams have a clearer picture of where they stand. Not hard to understand. So, if the Phillies do end up sucking like many think, but Hamels is healthy and pitching well, then he will be attractive to a handful of teams in play here. Some of these teams don't currently hold any of the top 10 prospects in baseball. Again, not hard to understand. If he is eventually moved I believe he will fetch a top two (might not be top 10 in baseball) prospect, another top 10 prospect, and a third prospect or younger major league player. They will also eat little money. The Phillies shouldn't budge off of this. If you're a contender with a chance to do something special this year and you need a top of the rotation arm, then pony up or get to stepping.

 

[wcburrs87]

Originally posted by adp98:
Burrs, he's not playing the percentages. You still don't understand the value of cheap top 10 prospects. For example, the Nats would not grade Giolito for Hamels straight up. They woudn't do it because one guy is cheap for the next 6 years and the other guy is owed over $100 million. Anyway, my trolling of Phillie fans is done for the day. Have a good one.
This post was edited on 2/4 8:03 AM by adp98

No, the Nats wouldn't trade with the Phillies because it makes no sense on about thousand different levels. Piss poor example.

 

[adp98]

Good to see you're coming my way. To do this deal they will need to eat money. We agree.

 

[wcburrs87]

Minimum. Like I said from beginning. Not significant like you said.

 

[adp98]

Please define minimum? 5 percent of the contract, maybe 10? Specifically give me a definition. Obviously anything around 20 percent of the contract cannot be considered minimum. However, give me a number so we're all clear what you mean. To be clear, i'm thinking 25+ million. A quarter of the contract. Certainly a significant portion.

 

[wcburrs87]

First, I don't care how much they do it don't eat. It's not my money. It's sports and reMs do it all of the time.

I'll take under 25 mill (your number). He's owed 94 million over next 4 years. 25 mil is about 26.6%. If he's traded at deadline then the contract is now down to about 82 million. 25 million of that is 30+%. They shouldn't do that if he's pitching well and the receiving team wants a better shot of winning something.

 

[Sportsboss_ofnothing]

Why does every bet with adp contain and excruciating amount of fine print? You need lawyers to hammer out all the details. What a DC weasel.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[adp98]

Originally posted by Sportsboss_ofnothing:
Why does every bet with adp contain and excruciating amount of fine print? You need lawyers to hammer out all the details. What a DC weasel.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

Because every quarter counts.

 

[selmore1]

My Howard bet with him was about as straight forward as it gets. And the only reason I didnt make the bet is because of where the top prospects lie. He'd have to go to the dodgers in order for that to work and don't really want to limit to one team. I still stand by no money.

 

[nardibynature123]

I need dmill to comment, then this can be a true BW's pissing contest.

 

[lowry99]

Originally posted by adp98:
Burrs, he's not playing the percentages. You still don't understand the value of cheap top 10 prospects. For example, the Nats would not grade Giolito for Hamels straight up. They woudn't do it because one guy is cheap for the next 6 years and the other guy is owed over $100 million. Anyway, my trolling of Phillie fans is done for the day. Have a good one.

This post was edited on 2/4 8:03 AM by adp98

Adp you're better than this and you're supporting the argument others are making. Nats have a boatload of starting pitching depth, best in the majors in years, just went to the free agent market to pay top dollar for another, so have no need for another SP in Hamels. So obviously, even though they have a top prosepct in Giolito, they're just not a good fit for the Phils as a trading partner for Hamels (also in same division). Even if he was a top 50-75 type prospect they probably wouldn't deal for Hamels. Nats are tapped out right now and by all accounts more likely to cut salary than add it in Hamels. Phils are not looking to eat salary on this one. That further reduces list of trade partners.

Need a team that:

--Has prospect(s) in an acceptable range
--Has the ability to take on all Hamels' remaining salary
--Needs a top of the rotation starter
--Feels it can win it all this year

Nats fulfill only 2 of 4 criteria. Red Sox are one of the few teams today that fit all 4 criteria. As the season goes on, more teams will, by virtue of hanging in the race and probably injuries/poor performance from players currently on their roster. And as the prize of a possible playoff berth and WS becomes closer and seems more real, more teams will be willing to sacrifice a shot at club control of a top player for a chance to win in the next couple years. As a nouveau fan of a team that has never won a playoff series, I can understand how you don't get this.

 

[adp98]

Because there will be 5 other guys with similar ability on the market who will cost a lot less. That's why.

 

[nardibynature123]

Originally posted by lowry99:

Originally posted by adp98:
Burrs, he's not playing the percentages. You still don't understand the value of cheap top 10 prospects. For example, the Nats would not grade Giolito for Hamels straight up. They woudn't do it because one guy is cheap for the next 6 years and the other guy is owed over $100 million. Anyway, my trolling of Phillie fans is done for the day. Have a good one.

This post was edited on 2/4 8:03 AM by adp98

Adp you're better than this and you're supporting the argument others are making. Nats have a boatload of starting pitching depth, best in the majors in years, just went to the free agent market to pay top dollar for another, so have no need for another SP in Hamels. So obviously, even though they have a top prosepct in Giolito, they're just not a good fit for the Phils as a trading partner for Hamels (also in same division). Even if he was a top 50-75 type prospect they probably wouldn't deal for Hamels. Nats are tapped out right now and by all accounts more likely to cut salary than add it in Hamels. Phils are not looking to eat salary on this one. That further reduces list of trade partners.

Need a team that:

--Has prospect(s) in an acceptable range
--Has the ability to take on all Hamels' remaining salary
--Needs a top of the rotation starter
--Feels it can win it all this year

Nats fulfill only 2 of 4 criteria. Red Sox are one of the few teams today that fit all 4 criteria. As the season goes on, more teams will, by virtue of hanging in the race and probably injuries/poor performance from players currently on their roster. And as the prize of a possible playoff berth and WS becomes closer and seems more real, more teams will be willing to sacrifice a shot at club control of a top player for a chance to win in the next couple years. As a nouveau fan of a team that has never won a playoff series, I can understand how you don't get this.

Thanks matty.

 

[selmore1]

Please name the 5 other guys that are a top 3 lefty in baseball?

 

[wcburrs87]

Originally posted by adp98:
Because there will be 5 other guys with similar ability on the market who will cost a lot less. That's why.

Who?

Didn't we go over this already?

 

[adp98]

Why do they need to be a lefty? Grienke, Zimmermann, cuerto, the guy who just went to Texas and David price is another lefty. I'm missing two more but don't have time to look them up. All these. Guys are FA's who will cost left.

 

[lowry99]

I'm not a Phils' apologist (have wanted Ruben fired since the day of the ridiculous Lee to Seattle deal) but provided Hamels stays healthy time is on the Phils' side here. No guarantees but should be able to get a spolid package. If not, they should keep him as he's worth coming to the ballpark to see (or turning on the game if you might not be inclined to do so anyway), just like Schilling was the only SP they had worth a trip to the park in the late '90s (although they also had Rolen then who was fun to watch). Red Sox or others can just say no to certain guys and Phils can say fine and wait.

Edit to add on the adp list -- at one point are the teams those guys are playing for going to be giving up on the season in your estimation? With two WCs, will they all be sellers? Phils (unfortunately) are a guaranteed seller, not sure their teams are.
This post was edited on 2/4 11:01 AM by lowry99

 

[wcburrs87]

Originally posted by adp98:
Why do they need to be a lefty? Grienke, Zimmermann, cuerto, the guy who just went to Texas and David price is another lefty. I'm missing two more but don't have time to look them up. All these. Guys are FA's who will cost left.

So, if the Nats hold onto Zimmerman and are rolling along come late July, then they'll just ship him out instead of going all in for a title chance this year? Same with Fister? Got it.

Same thing with the LAD and Grienke. And Grienke has a hefty player option that he could exercise for the next 2/3 years, but if he doesn't then he feels he can get more on the open market, which in his mind be more than Hamels.

Texas wants to re-sign the local guy Gallardo, who is a shell of Hamels anyway.

The White Sox could be in the mix and decide to hold onto to Price.

Cueto is plausible, so that's one.

Also, why will they be less? I'm going to assume as a recent Nats' fan you heard about some guy named Scherzer setting the market on the price of starting pitching in baseball. Maybe, you didn't.

Oh that's right because they can sign them as FAs and not give up any prospects. Never mind the other teams they would have to compete with during free agency to get such a player. Never mind wanting a chance to win in 2015 and not wanting to wait until the next offseason.

Fact: You trade for Hamels you own a guy in his young 30's, at 3-more years (Not 5-7 years they give FA pitchers), at a reasonable number (considering how it will go up thanks to Boras/Scherzer/Nats). Not sure why this stuff is beyond you right now. Must be too much running around the dining room table. Is there a low hanging chandelier that you're bumping your head on as you make the turns?

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by adp98:
Why do they need to be a lefty? Grienke, Zimmermann, cuerto, the guy who just went to Texas and David price is another lefty. I'm missing two more but don't have time to look them up. All these. Guys are FA's who will cost left.

With the exception of Cueto, do you think any of these guys are truly going to receive less than the 100m owed to Cole Hamels right now?

It's not the 23M, it's the 4 years. One is basically market for his ability, the other is far less than market. 4 years is the home run in this equation. Really a manageable number. All the aforementioned almost assuredly getting 150M plus, over 7 plus years. My guess is the Yankees here. And if I am CoP, i take less on the prospect dollar now rather than wait. I'm risk adverse in this situation if I am a GM, mainly because Hamels has plenty of miles on him, and I dont see THAT much of an upside waiting till July and praying through 140 innings. And if I am dealing with the Yankees, look deep into their last 3 years of foreign free agents. That's where they spent a lot of money and have done well on the past.

 

[adp98]

But those guys cost you very little so that brings down Hamels value or the Phils eat more sslary to make him more attractive. You guys must be checkers players.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by adp98:
But those guys cost you very little so that brings down Hamels value or the Phils eat more sslary to make him more attractive. You guys must be checkers players.

Not really, mostly because they are not as good as Hamels. There is a big difference between Cueto and Greinke and Hamels.

 

[wcburrs87]

Originally posted by adp98:
But those guys cost you very little so that brings down Hamels value or the Phils eat more sslary to make him more attractive. You guys must be checkers players.

How do they cost you very little? And how do you know all of them will be available? None of those teams are projected to have a worse season than the Phillies and some of them are projected to make a run at their division.

 

[adp98]

Originally posted by Ninetynine5.0:

Originally posted by adp98:
But those guys cost you very little so that brings down Hamels value or the Phils eat more sslary to make him more attractive. You guys must be checkers players.

Not really, mostly because they are not as good as Hamels. There is a big difference between Cueto and Greinke and Hamels.

You might want to check out their numbers before making that statement.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by adp98:

Originally posted by Ninetynine5.0:

Originally posted by adp98:
But those guys cost you very little so that brings down Hamels value or the Phils eat more sslary to make him more attractive. You guys must be checkers players.

Not really, mostly because they are not as good as Hamels. There is a big difference between Cueto and Greinke and Hamels.

You might want to check out their numbers before making that statement.

Ok, lemme rephrase - all things being equal (contract etc) would you trade Cole Hamels for either guy straight up? Cueto is injury prone and we won't even get into the other head case.

No?

Me either.

Next

 

[adp98]

But all things aren't equal because I have to trade more assets for Hamels than the others. Which has been my point the entire time and why Philly has to eat salary to get the package needed. Hamels is also 3. Year's older and is two years removed from an 8-14 season. The guy has won more than 15 games once his entire career. He's not a top 5 pitcher. Cueto is better.

This post was edited on 2/4 3:53 PM by adp98

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by adp98:
But all things aren't equal because I have to trade more assets for Hamels than the others. Which has been my point the entire time and why Philly has to eat salary to get the package needed. Hamels is also 3. Year's older and is two years removed from an 8-14 season. The guy has won more than 15 games once his entire career. He's not a top 5 pitcher. Cueto is better.

This post was edited on 2/4 3:53 PM by adp98

And why are the other two available?

And he's the same age as Greinke, and far healthier than Cueto. Those two are risks - and Hamels is as sure a thing as there is. And he's lefty.

 

[Novacatt94]

Originally posted by adp98:
But all things aren't equal because I have to trade more assets for Hamels than the others. Which has been my point the entire time and why Philly has to eat salary to get the package needed. Hamels is also 3. Year's older and is two years removed from an 8-14 season. The guy has won more than 15 games once his entire career. He's not a top 5 pitcher. Cueto is better.


This post was edited on 2/4 3:53 PM by adp98

Wins are an overrated metric. I believe his ERA was more than respectable in that 8-14 season. He started out in a 1-9 hole or something like that due to horrific run support

 

[wcburrs87]

How about we let it play out? In the mean time, spare us the updates. Oh yea, please don't refer to wins anymore.

 

[adp98]

You are certainly entitled to your opinion.

 

[selmore1]

ADP, I get that it might cost a little more to get Hamels but that's because you get him through the end of his prime on a below market contract. Yes his yearly salary is probably about market but you don't have to pay for any of the guaranteed crappy years. You seem to believe that every team is only interested in trading great prospects for one year rentals so they don't have to pay the guy. These teams have LOADS of money. I'd think it'd be more valuable to trade for a guy you have under control for a few years if you want to be a contender so you don't have to either sign the pticher you just traded for a to a longer deal than you want or just let him go and have to figure out what you're gunna do pitching wise for the next few years. If you trade prospects for Hamels you are in good position to compete for the next 3 years. I see value in that and you don't.

 

[adp98]

I don't believe teams will trade great prospects for these other guys, thus they are cheaper. That's half my point and driving down the price on Hamels. I might need to bust out the crayons soon.

 

[selmore1]

Ok, so you need to bust out crayons because you believe something and I believe something different? Way to go right to belittling when someone has a difference in opinion. Don't dare disagree with the almighty ADP.

 

[gldendog]

These teams want prime aces on manageable contracts for middling prospects. F*ck outta here. The overvaluing of these prospects is hilarious. Most dont make it big. They're only called prospects because they havent proven anything yet.