Saturday, November 1st
Rhode Island (0-4/0-8) at Delaware (2-2/4-4)
Poor Rhode Island! They could just about taste victory this past Saturday but that piece of the cake was pulled away in the last 1:56 of their game with Maine. The Rams entered the 4th quarter with a 14-12 lead only to have the Black Bears score a touchdown and 2 point conversion to drive a knife in the heart of the Ram faithful. The last chance for a Ram win will come on the last day before they put the pads away until Spring ball on the 22nd against Towson in Kingston. Rhody is last in the CAA in points scored per game (12) and points allowed (37). Look for the Rams to do the quick fix with tons of 1-A transfers.
Opening up the CAA league play with two wins (at JMU & Elon in Newark) and having dreams about the playoffs, the Blue Hens have dropped two in-a-row (Towson in Newark and at W&M). The long winter nap begins on the 22nd after the Villanova game.
The Hens won this game last year in Kingston, 31-13. How about a 34-17 double-up down in Newark this Saturday for the Hens. The Rams host New Hampshire next and the Hens travel up to Albany.
#17 William & Mary (2-2/5-3) at JMU (2-2/5-3)
Here we have a game with so much on the line. It's an elimination game down in Harrisonburg for the playoffs for the loser while the winner keeps its postseason chances alive. The Tribe averages 26 points a game and JMU 34 ppg. The Tribe gives up 23 a game and the Dukes 32 ppg. Jeff Sagarin rates the Tribe as the 135th best (in 1-A/1-AA) with a 55.63 rating. JMU comes in at 152 with a 52.86 rating. Give the Dukes 3 points for the home team advantage and you have a JMU win by the smallest of margins. The Tribe won this game by 10 last year, 17-7 at home.
This CAA fan is going with another Tribe win by a FG, 34-31. JMU is so damn inconsistent you just don't know which team will show up from Saturday to Saturday. The Tribe hosts Elon on the 8th and JMU plays at Stony Brook (good luck there, coach Withers). I'm surprised JMU is not getting Top 25 votes - win on Saturday and you'll see your name called.
#23 Albany (2-2/6-2) at #2 New Hampshire (4-0/6-1)
The Great Danes entered the Top 25 for the first time this year after Week 4 with a 3-0 record and proceeded to beat winless Columbia and go 4-0. Their exit from the poll came a week later with their loss at home to JMU. Next was another loss at home to Richmond but after a road win at Maine in Week 8 the Great Danes reentered the Top 25 with their 5-2 record. Last Saturday (Week 9) the Great Danes hosted 4-3 Patriot Colgate and won the game 24-17 with a TD in the last 16 seconds. The script says that there is movement in the polls every two weeks for the Great Danes and the prophecy will be fulfilled this weekend in Durham (N.H.).
The Wildcats of New Hampshire move up to #2 in the FCS Nation after Eastern Washington's loss at Northern Arizona (Big Sky game) 28-27 this past weekend. Stony Brook threw a scare into Wildcat fans by jumping out to a 14-0 1st Quarter lead this past Saturday. UNH rallied for a one point half time lead. Stony Brook threw their 2nd scare for the Wildcat faithful with a 4th Quarter TD with 3:22 left and a PAT away to tie the score. That kicked failed. UNH cushioned their lead with a TD with 1:43 left and went to the locker room with a 28-20 win. UNH has won 6 in-a-row and that streak will reach 7 after their Albany game.
UNH to win at home (don't they always?), 35-21. Albany hosts the Delaware Blue Hens and UNH travels to Rhode Island on the 8th.
Elon (0-4/1-7) at Towson (1-3/3-5)
The Phoenix really struggle to score points (except at Delaware) averaging only 12 a game for 11th place in the CAA. They give up 31 a game on defense. That lone win in this 2014 campaign was at home vs Independent 3-5 Charlotte 49ers, 20-13. They have chance this weekend for their 1st CAA win but if they fall short their last opportunity will come in two weeks when they host Maine.
This is not an automatic win for the Towson Tigers. They have already lost at home this year to 2-6 Northeast Central Connecticut St., Maine,and Stony Brook (no disgrace there). Their one CAA win came as an upset at Delaware, 24-17.
The Tigers had a bye last week and should be well-rested for the Phoenix and take a 24-14 win up to Villanova next weekend. The Phoenix stay on the road and play in Williamsburg (W&M).
#4 Villanova (4-0/7-1) at #13 Richmond (3-1/6-2)
Best game in the CAA this weekend and in the FCS Nation unless you think #7 Illinois St. (7-0) at #22 Northern Iowa (4-4) or #18 South Dakota St. (5-3) at #1 North Dakota St. (8-0) is better. OK, so what does this game bring us? Both teams are pretty much evenly matched. Villanova was picked 2nd in the CAA in the preseason and Richmond 3rd. In rushing offense Villanova is 1st in the CAA and Richmond 3rd. In rushing defense Villanova is ranked 2nd in the CAA and Richmond 4th. Where the Spiders gain an advantage is with the passing game both offense and defense. In pass offense the Spiders are ranked 1st with receivers JR Reggie Diggs (4th in the CAA), SO Brian Brown (5th) and SR Rashad Ponder (10th). Villanova ranks 4th with only SR Poppy Livers (9th) in the Top 10. And on pass defense, oh boy, Villanova ranks dead last in the CAA and Richmond 4th.
Another area that Villanova gives Richmond a big advantage is with penalties. The Spiders rank 6th in the CAA giving up 51 penalty yards a game while the Cats are next-to-last with 74 yards a game.
Let's look at their Red Zone Offense and Defense. The Spiders rank 1st on offense and Villanova 4th and on defense, Villanova 3rd and Richmond 4th.
Another distinct advantage for the Spiders (and Villanova fans already know this and no statistics are necessary) is in the kicking game. I'll give you the stats anyway. Richmond is ranked 4th as So Peter Yoder is probably the 2nd best kicker in the conference behind W&M's SR John Carpenter. Yoder has kicked 4 FGs over 40 yards in the last two games. Villanova is ranked 11th.
Now let's look at the past 6 seasons and Villanova-Richmond matchups.
2013 - no play - Cats 6-5 and Spiders 6-6
2012 - Spiders win at 'Nova, 28-17. Cats 8-3 and 0-1 in playoffs losing to Stony Brook, 20-10. Spiders 8-3 but no playoffs. (Villanova was the automatic qualifier in the CAA that year).
2011 - no play - Cats 2-9 and Spiders 3-8 (they beat 1-A Duke but go 0-8 in the CAA).
2010 - Cats win at home 28-7 and go 9-5 and 2-1 in playoffs losing in the Semifinals to Eastern Washington. Spiders go 6-5
2009 - Cats win 21-20 at Richmond and go 14-1 and are FCS NCAA Champions. Spiders go 11-2 and 1-1 in playoffs losing to Appalachian St., 35-31 in Quarterfinals.
2008 - Cats win at home 26-20 and go 10-3 and 1-1 in playoffs losing to JMU, 31-27 in Quarterfinals. Spiders go 13-3 and beat Montana 24-7 for the FCS NCAA Championship.
Now let's look at the 2014 Richmond schedule.
Richmond 55 and 3-5Pioneer Morehead St. 10.
4-4 1-A/ACC Virginia 45 Richmond 13.
Richmond 42 and 2-6 MEAC Hampton 17.
6-1 CAA UNH 29 and Richmond 26. (Spiders lost this home game in the last 19 seconds).
Richmond 46 and 5-3 Big South Liberty 39 in 2OT.
Richmond 41 and 6-2 CAA Albany 28.
Richmond 37 and 0-8 CAA URI 0.
Richmond 30 and 1-7 CAA Elon 10.
OK, now the prediction. Win this game Richmond and just split your JMU (home) and W&M (away) games and you go to the playoffs at 9-3 (you're going to win at Maine). Lose this game and split those two (8-4) I don't think you make it. Lose this game and win JMU and at W&M (9-3) and you go.
Villanova - it's hard to pick against you with the Miracle Man (as the voice of the Wildcats Joe Eichorn calls him) JR QB John Robertson keeps finding ways to win games for the Cats. However, with the injuries mounting and playing down in a hostile enviornment at the Brickhouse (Robins Stadium) and with coach Dan Rocco going 7-0 in November the past two seasons, I'm going with a 38-35 Richmond win. Hope I'm wrong!
Last week was a perfect 7-0 pick week. Hope that doesn't happen this week.
GO CATS - BEAT THE SPIDERS!
Rhode Island (0-4/0-8) at Delaware (2-2/4-4)
Poor Rhode Island! They could just about taste victory this past Saturday but that piece of the cake was pulled away in the last 1:56 of their game with Maine. The Rams entered the 4th quarter with a 14-12 lead only to have the Black Bears score a touchdown and 2 point conversion to drive a knife in the heart of the Ram faithful. The last chance for a Ram win will come on the last day before they put the pads away until Spring ball on the 22nd against Towson in Kingston. Rhody is last in the CAA in points scored per game (12) and points allowed (37). Look for the Rams to do the quick fix with tons of 1-A transfers.
Opening up the CAA league play with two wins (at JMU & Elon in Newark) and having dreams about the playoffs, the Blue Hens have dropped two in-a-row (Towson in Newark and at W&M). The long winter nap begins on the 22nd after the Villanova game.
The Hens won this game last year in Kingston, 31-13. How about a 34-17 double-up down in Newark this Saturday for the Hens. The Rams host New Hampshire next and the Hens travel up to Albany.
#17 William & Mary (2-2/5-3) at JMU (2-2/5-3)
Here we have a game with so much on the line. It's an elimination game down in Harrisonburg for the playoffs for the loser while the winner keeps its postseason chances alive. The Tribe averages 26 points a game and JMU 34 ppg. The Tribe gives up 23 a game and the Dukes 32 ppg. Jeff Sagarin rates the Tribe as the 135th best (in 1-A/1-AA) with a 55.63 rating. JMU comes in at 152 with a 52.86 rating. Give the Dukes 3 points for the home team advantage and you have a JMU win by the smallest of margins. The Tribe won this game by 10 last year, 17-7 at home.
This CAA fan is going with another Tribe win by a FG, 34-31. JMU is so damn inconsistent you just don't know which team will show up from Saturday to Saturday. The Tribe hosts Elon on the 8th and JMU plays at Stony Brook (good luck there, coach Withers). I'm surprised JMU is not getting Top 25 votes - win on Saturday and you'll see your name called.
#23 Albany (2-2/6-2) at #2 New Hampshire (4-0/6-1)
The Great Danes entered the Top 25 for the first time this year after Week 4 with a 3-0 record and proceeded to beat winless Columbia and go 4-0. Their exit from the poll came a week later with their loss at home to JMU. Next was another loss at home to Richmond but after a road win at Maine in Week 8 the Great Danes reentered the Top 25 with their 5-2 record. Last Saturday (Week 9) the Great Danes hosted 4-3 Patriot Colgate and won the game 24-17 with a TD in the last 16 seconds. The script says that there is movement in the polls every two weeks for the Great Danes and the prophecy will be fulfilled this weekend in Durham (N.H.).
The Wildcats of New Hampshire move up to #2 in the FCS Nation after Eastern Washington's loss at Northern Arizona (Big Sky game) 28-27 this past weekend. Stony Brook threw a scare into Wildcat fans by jumping out to a 14-0 1st Quarter lead this past Saturday. UNH rallied for a one point half time lead. Stony Brook threw their 2nd scare for the Wildcat faithful with a 4th Quarter TD with 3:22 left and a PAT away to tie the score. That kicked failed. UNH cushioned their lead with a TD with 1:43 left and went to the locker room with a 28-20 win. UNH has won 6 in-a-row and that streak will reach 7 after their Albany game.
UNH to win at home (don't they always?), 35-21. Albany hosts the Delaware Blue Hens and UNH travels to Rhode Island on the 8th.
Elon (0-4/1-7) at Towson (1-3/3-5)
The Phoenix really struggle to score points (except at Delaware) averaging only 12 a game for 11th place in the CAA. They give up 31 a game on defense. That lone win in this 2014 campaign was at home vs Independent 3-5 Charlotte 49ers, 20-13. They have chance this weekend for their 1st CAA win but if they fall short their last opportunity will come in two weeks when they host Maine.
This is not an automatic win for the Towson Tigers. They have already lost at home this year to 2-6 Northeast Central Connecticut St., Maine,and Stony Brook (no disgrace there). Their one CAA win came as an upset at Delaware, 24-17.
The Tigers had a bye last week and should be well-rested for the Phoenix and take a 24-14 win up to Villanova next weekend. The Phoenix stay on the road and play in Williamsburg (W&M).
#4 Villanova (4-0/7-1) at #13 Richmond (3-1/6-2)
Best game in the CAA this weekend and in the FCS Nation unless you think #7 Illinois St. (7-0) at #22 Northern Iowa (4-4) or #18 South Dakota St. (5-3) at #1 North Dakota St. (8-0) is better. OK, so what does this game bring us? Both teams are pretty much evenly matched. Villanova was picked 2nd in the CAA in the preseason and Richmond 3rd. In rushing offense Villanova is 1st in the CAA and Richmond 3rd. In rushing defense Villanova is ranked 2nd in the CAA and Richmond 4th. Where the Spiders gain an advantage is with the passing game both offense and defense. In pass offense the Spiders are ranked 1st with receivers JR Reggie Diggs (4th in the CAA), SO Brian Brown (5th) and SR Rashad Ponder (10th). Villanova ranks 4th with only SR Poppy Livers (9th) in the Top 10. And on pass defense, oh boy, Villanova ranks dead last in the CAA and Richmond 4th.
Another area that Villanova gives Richmond a big advantage is with penalties. The Spiders rank 6th in the CAA giving up 51 penalty yards a game while the Cats are next-to-last with 74 yards a game.
Let's look at their Red Zone Offense and Defense. The Spiders rank 1st on offense and Villanova 4th and on defense, Villanova 3rd and Richmond 4th.
Another distinct advantage for the Spiders (and Villanova fans already know this and no statistics are necessary) is in the kicking game. I'll give you the stats anyway. Richmond is ranked 4th as So Peter Yoder is probably the 2nd best kicker in the conference behind W&M's SR John Carpenter. Yoder has kicked 4 FGs over 40 yards in the last two games. Villanova is ranked 11th.
Now let's look at the past 6 seasons and Villanova-Richmond matchups.
2013 - no play - Cats 6-5 and Spiders 6-6
2012 - Spiders win at 'Nova, 28-17. Cats 8-3 and 0-1 in playoffs losing to Stony Brook, 20-10. Spiders 8-3 but no playoffs. (Villanova was the automatic qualifier in the CAA that year).
2011 - no play - Cats 2-9 and Spiders 3-8 (they beat 1-A Duke but go 0-8 in the CAA).
2010 - Cats win at home 28-7 and go 9-5 and 2-1 in playoffs losing in the Semifinals to Eastern Washington. Spiders go 6-5
2009 - Cats win 21-20 at Richmond and go 14-1 and are FCS NCAA Champions. Spiders go 11-2 and 1-1 in playoffs losing to Appalachian St., 35-31 in Quarterfinals.
2008 - Cats win at home 26-20 and go 10-3 and 1-1 in playoffs losing to JMU, 31-27 in Quarterfinals. Spiders go 13-3 and beat Montana 24-7 for the FCS NCAA Championship.
Now let's look at the 2014 Richmond schedule.
Richmond 55 and 3-5Pioneer Morehead St. 10.
4-4 1-A/ACC Virginia 45 Richmond 13.
Richmond 42 and 2-6 MEAC Hampton 17.
6-1 CAA UNH 29 and Richmond 26. (Spiders lost this home game in the last 19 seconds).
Richmond 46 and 5-3 Big South Liberty 39 in 2OT.
Richmond 41 and 6-2 CAA Albany 28.
Richmond 37 and 0-8 CAA URI 0.
Richmond 30 and 1-7 CAA Elon 10.
OK, now the prediction. Win this game Richmond and just split your JMU (home) and W&M (away) games and you go to the playoffs at 9-3 (you're going to win at Maine). Lose this game and split those two (8-4) I don't think you make it. Lose this game and win JMU and at W&M (9-3) and you go.
Villanova - it's hard to pick against you with the Miracle Man (as the voice of the Wildcats Joe Eichorn calls him) JR QB John Robertson keeps finding ways to win games for the Cats. However, with the injuries mounting and playing down in a hostile enviornment at the Brickhouse (Robins Stadium) and with coach Dan Rocco going 7-0 in November the past two seasons, I'm going with a 38-35 Richmond win. Hope I'm wrong!
Last week was a perfect 7-0 pick week. Hope that doesn't happen this week.
GO CATS - BEAT THE SPIDERS!