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Seeding & Location Thoughts

One game left and I expected Villanova's seeding & location situation to be very clear. Unfortunately it is not. I can ONLY say with CERTAINTY that Villanova will be either a #1 or #2 seed and that as a #1 seed will not be in Chicago.

A see three factors in play still and two of them are so subjective and Committee preference oriented that lots of options exist.

The factors: Pure data driven analysis. (This is the most objective of the three but still open to subjective debate.)
(I am using the ESPN RPI data.) bad loss column outside top 50 is the first number outside top 100 is 2nd number. I also note that the Committee does not get a "Top 25" sheet and that is subjectas teams fall in and out. For example Seton Hall is 23 today. If they win, they move up. Lose and maybe they drop back. St. Joe's is 27...two wins gets them up...However, they can look at the who you beat on your schedule.

1) Six teams have potential colorable arguments for a #1 seed. One of them (UVA/NC)has to lose today but...

Kansas RPI 1, KenPom 2, SOS 10 v. Top 25 8-3 v. Top 50 14-3 Bad losses 0/1

Villanova RPI 4, KenPom 4, SOS 23 v. Top 25 3-3 v. Top 50 7-4 Bad losses 0/0

Virginia RPI 2, Kenpom 1 SOS 4 v. Top 25 8-2 v. Top 50 10-2 Bad losses 4/0

No. Carolina RPI 5, Kenpom 5 SOS v. Top 25 3-3 v. Top 50 6-5 Bad losses 1/0

Michigan St. RPI 14, Kenpom 3 SOS 85 v. Top 25 4-1 v. Top 50 6-4 Bad losses 0/1

Oregon RPI 3, Kenpom 13, SOS 5 v. Top 25 6-1 v. Top 50 11-3 Bad losses 1/2

Other Factors: UVA and Michigan State did not win their regular season conference titles....

Looking at all this:

a) Kansas is the overall #1 seed in Chicago period......

b) UVA probably has the next best quality resume with small blemishes for finishing behind NC in the ACC and some bad road hiccups in January....but they have also beaten N.Carolina, Villanova, West Virginia, and Louisville and Miami twice each...IF UVA wins tonight..they probably are the second #1 seed...

c) As of this minute Villanova is probably the third #1 seed....the only resume blemish is the comparative lack of top quality victories...

d) North Carolina and Michigan State need to win their conference tournaments to get a #1 seed. Carolina has a similar lack of top quality wins as Villanova and Michigan State finished two games in back of a nothing special Indiana team in the B1G race. the Spartans also have the weakest SOS of the contenders by far.

e) the "stealth team is Oregon....currently on nobody's #1 seed line but that blind resume actually looks like the fourth #1 seed in the West....they must beat Utah tonight and probably need two of Villanova, North Carolina or Michigan State to lose. It really comes down to PAC 12 perception...Oregon has piledup wins out west against teams generally in the 15-50 range but has not even faced a top 8 type opponent.

Subjective Factor 1

Conference Tournament Results.....

This is always an x factor.....

a) some years the Committee locks in to the body of work of the top teams and is not overly influenced by the conference tourney results...if that is the case Villanova is already locked into a #1 seed regardless of tonight...(example 2006 Villanova and UConn were not penalized for BET losses to Pitt and Syracuse before even reaching the finals)...if this is the case in 2016 then Kansas and Villanova/UVA are #1 seeds already....

b) some years the Committee seems to get conference tourney crazy and over reacts to the results. Given that most of the favorites are still playing I don't see this one happening this year...if it did in the most extreme some outlier such as a West Virginia win over Kansas with a series of other losses brings WVU into play.....a moderate version of this could bump Villanova off the #1 line if Seton Hall wins tonight.

c) they want to see how a certain handful of teams perform....my guess is that this factor may be in play for North Carolina tonight and definitely for Michigan State....under this theory Villanova's #1 seed status could be in jeopardy with a loss to Seton Hall and tourney wins by Carolina, Michigan State and maybe Oregon...

Subjective Factor 2 Geography

Theoretically a pure "s" curve is developed with each #1 seed going to the closest "as the crow flies" location left on the Board as its name comes up..... the #2 seeds just follow the s curve with the 5th overall team playing against the weakest #1 seed and weakest #2 seed playing the top overall #1 seed...

However, the Committee has sometimes looked at the convenience factor for both teams if next to each other on the s curve....this is the heart of the Villanova/UVA to Philly debate...quite frankly it could go either way on that point if UVA is the overall number 2 team and Villanova is overall number 3.

As to #2 seeds, in recent years the Committee has tried not to follow a pure s curve and sent teams all the way across the country, preferring to keep them near home....under this theory if Villanova fell to the #2 line it definitely would not get sent West (and Oregon would not go East)...

However, would the Committee give Philly to a #2 seed Villanova (behind UVA)....that is a super subjective argument....on one hand it appears to reward Villanova and penalize UVA....which gets us to the next subjective point...if Villanova lost tonight and it was a close call for the last #1 seed or a top #2 seed, would keeping Villanova in Philly as a #2 seed be the "compromise".....this could actually play out if Oregon is competition for that last #1 seed...give it to the Ducks and keep Villanova at home....

Bottom line:

Villanova may already be locked in as a #1 seed....
A win tonight locks a #1 seed up (if there is still doubt)
Philly as a #1 seed is too close to call if Villanova and UVA win tonight
Lose tonight....Philly as a #2 seed is possible but would cause quite a discussion.....

As for rooting interests....

1) For Villanova
2) Against Michigan State and Oregon....
3) If Villanova wins for North Carolina
4) If Villanova loses for Virginia......

Although my brother is a UVA grad (who also is a big Villanova fan) so i have to root for UVA tonight regardless....

PS: I invite thoughtful discussion but any unequivocal statements about "LOCKS" (except for Kansas) from TV talking heads is speculation mixed with opinion.

A FEW OBSERVATIONS... THAT

ONE.... MAYBE ITS JUST ME BUT .RYAN ARCH LOOKS MUCH QUICKER THAN AT ANY POINT IN HIS CAREER.......HE SIMPLY IS BLOWING BY DEFENDERS ON DRIVES TO THE BASKET,,,,,HIS DRIBBLE PENETRATION HAS REALLY IMPROVED....HIS DEFENSE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY, I BELIEVE HE IS OUR BEST DEFENSIVE GUARD ON THIS TEAM.......BY FAR.....BETTER THAN BOOTH AND BRUNSEN........TWO...I BELIEVE HART AND KRIS JENKINS....BOTH HAVE A CHANCE TO BE ALL AMERICANS NEXT YEAR......JOSH HART RECENTLY MADE THIRD TEAM AA AS A JUNIOR AND I WOULD EXPECT THAT JOSH WILL BE ON MANY PRE SEASON ALL AMERICAN TEAMS, AND AS FAR AS KRIS JENKINS, HE IS ON THE VERGE OF BEING THE BEST ALL AROUND PLAYER ON THE TEAM.......SO THIS DYNAMIC DUO...WILL BE A TREAT TO WATCH NEXT YEAR....VERY EXCITED......THROW EXPLOSIVE ERIC PASCHALL INTO THE MIX...AND THE PAVILLION WILL BE ROCKING.........FOUR.....JUST MY OPINION BUT I THINK A HUGE PART OF OUR NCAA ADVANCEMENT HINGES UPON HOW WELL OUR THREE BENCH PLAYERS PERFORM......REYNOLDS......BOOTH......AND BRIDGES......WHEN TWO OUT OF THOSE THREE MAKE MAJOR CONTRIBUTIONS, WE ARE TOUGH TO BEAT.............FIVE....LUV THE WAY, THAT JAY HAS THROWN IN INTERMITTENT ZONE THROUGHOUT A GAME....TO MIX THINGS UP......I THINK COACH WRIGHT HAS DONE SOME OF HIS BEST COACHING.....IN RECENT GAMES.....HE HAS THE KIDS VERY PREPARED..........BEN BENTYL....VERY TALENTED....BUT IVE WATCHED HIM MANY GAMES THIS YEAR...AND HE HAS ALOT OF DEFENSIVE ISSUES BEFORE HE CAN GET TO THE NBA...BUT AN OUTSTANDING COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYER........SIX.... I DONT THINK OUR VARIOUS FULL COURT AND THREE QUARTER COURT PRESSESS HAVE GOTTEN ENOUGH CREDIT ON THIS BOARD....OUR PRESSESS HAVE CREATED TURNOVERS......DISRUPTS THE OPPONENTS OFFENSE.....AND ABOVE ALL HELPS TO SHORTEN THE SHOT CLOCK ON MANY POSSESSIONS.......HART...BOOTH..ARCH...BRIDGES...HAVE BEEN TEERIFIC ON OUR PRESSES........SEVEN....I NEVER BOUGHT INTO THE VILLANOVA LACKS ATHLETICISM BALONEY BY SOME ON THIS BOARD....SURE, THERE ARE MORE ATHLETIC TEAMS.....BUT NOVA IS PLENTY ATHLETIC ENOUGH.... YOU DONT WIN THIRTY GAMES AND ACHIEVE NO ONE IN THE NATION WITHOUT GOOD ATHLETES.......SOME DONT PASS THE LOOK TEST....BUT EVEN A KID LIKE K JENKINS FOR HIS BODY TYPE MOVES EXTREMELY WELL.....HIS REVERESE DUNK ROCKED THE GARDEN.......DARYL REYNOLDS IS EXTREMELY ATHLETIC......SAME WITH JOSH HART......AND MIKAL BRIDGES HAS A CHANCE TO BE SPECIAL WITH HARD WORK.............EIGHT....THIS SEASON CAN END ABRUBTLY....BUT IVE ENJOYED THIS TEAM AND THE QUALITY OF THE YOUNG MEN .....NO DRAMA TEAM......JUST HARD WORKERS...........NINE.....HOPE EVERYONE GETS OUT TO THE GARDEN IF POSSIBLE...TO SUPPORT THESE KIDS........TEN.....THESE ARE THE GOLDEN YEARS.....GREAT KIDS....GREAT CULTURE.......ENJOY IT...WHILE IT LASTS........EXCELLENCE IS MONOTONOUS.......

SHU's Gordon in the Inky

Don't know if anyone saw this or not:

Gordon, quoted in the Asbury Park Press after Friday night’s win, said of Villanova, “There’s something about them I don’t like. I don’t like how they go about themselves,” and there was “a lot of trash talk and everything like that” in their two games this season.

Gordon also told the newspaper that he didn’t like not being recruited by the Wildcats, either out of St. Patrick High School in New Jersey or when he left Massachusetts as a graduate transfer.
“Teams that overshadow me and don’t recruit me, I take vengeance to them,” he said.




Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...ll-in-Big-East-final.html#GYwXc1gImZRBm555.99

Nova Nation, TCB Tonight!

A small wiff of homesickness is setting in these last couple days, and though after each win in the BET it subsides somewhat for a few hours, it ramps up the next day. That said, a win tonight will certainly cure this bug.

I haven't missed a BET in years, since college actually (late 90's), having always worked in Manhattan. I am jealous of my VUSports.com brethren who have enjoyed this week together thus far and have one more great day and night to go, with the prospect of the title glow leading you into the late night NYC hours celebrating with friends.

We will need the entire Nova Nation: players, coaches, alumni, fans, friends, VUSports.com posters, etc.; to bring home the BET Title tonight at MSG. I don't like Seton Hall at all, especially their fans. That said I really respect how they have improved and matured all year and are now playing at an extremely high level and capable of winning the BET. A collective effort starting early in the day, whether it be the team's walk through and grease-board prep sessions, or the fans creating a buzz around midtown before packing MSG to be loud, are all essential.

If you don't yet have a ticket, GET ONE AND GO.

If you have one but weren't decided on how early to head in for some pregame drinks and conversation with fellow Villanovans, clear your schedule and GET INTO MIDTOWN EARLY.

Whether it be Proper West, or Stout, or Blarney Rock or wherever, those places need to be filled with Navy blue wearing Villanovans, who know how to handle themselves and create the required buzz on a BET Final pre-game. Don't mind the johnny-come-lately SHU fans who will be drinking Bud's in Tracks Bar in Penn Station because they don't know any better.

We own the league, we own the BET, we again own Midtown Manhattan today and tonight!

Though I will be rocking my Villanova gear all day here in London and up and down the King's Road, I will be thinking of all the VUSports.com luminaries I have enjoyed these kind of days/nights with in person for more than a decade and a half now. ericw, novaworm, PublicEnemyNo1, LetsGoNova, rbnova, rstrick30, NovaUSMC01, Z-Man, RP_Gambit, PeterN, Beefer, ace, peteyluv, riggs98, kjbert, TheBigO, AQuarterman, milo93, kef98, EdMcM, TwoDecks, UncleBill, Lowry45 and his pop, Voice, OldT, Bones92, KittlesFan, adp98, tanman, ctnova99, novaclassof90, Nova98, Shananigans, L_aurie, HoyaKiller, whitecat, ncaaball and plenty others who I missed (and apologize about that).

OWN THE PREGAME BARS, DOMINATE MSG, BRING HOME THE BET TITLE, CELEBRATE and ENJOY THE EXPERIENCE!

hard to believe it was 10 years ago tonight ...

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March 11, 2006
The Game No Longer Mattered

Eric Watkins

VUSports.com Senior Writer

Early in the second half of Villanova's Big East semi-final game with Pitt, the Cats were increasing their defensive pressure in an attempt to dictate tempo and further narrow what had been a double figure half-time deficit. Allan Ray was near the sideline by the Villanova bench and the unimaginable happened – somehow Allan Ray got poked in the right eye and fell to the Garden floor in immense pain. He was helped off the court and rushed to the hospital – he could not see out of his eye – his teammates seemed stunned. Within minutes, word of the severity of the injury was passed via text messages, cell phone calls and word of mouth through the Garden crowd. The Villanova faithful watched the remainder of the game in stunned silence.
The game no longer mattered. The game clock simply could not run down fast enough.
All that mattered was that Allan Ray was going to be ok. Not ok enough to return, ok enough to play next week, or even ok enough to play again ever – simply that he would be able to see clearly out of two eyes again.
Prayers for Allan's health filled the Garden silence.
Normally, win or lose, the post-game scene around the Garden is decorated with Villanova fans enjoying a few laughs and sharing a few drinks while talking about their Cats. This time it was different – everyone was fixated on ESPN coverage of college basketball – waiting for whatever updates could be heard. Cell phones and text messages were commonplace even at 2 and 3 am. Everyone wearing a Villanova shirt, hat or scarf was asking each other "have you heard anything about A-Ray".
As I walked around the hotel lobby this morning taking calls from 'Nova fans and speaking with others, I noticed that people were sharing similar reactions. Many pondered just how difficult it must have been for the Villanova players to finish out that game – having seen their friend and teammate suffer such a traumatic injury and wondering if he was ok. Several people shared with me that they slept restlessly or for only a couple of hours. Others expressed that they felt as if one of their own children or a relative had been hurt. It had to be a thousand times worse for the players, the coaches and their families.
The reports now sound promising for Allan – he regained his vision, he was discharged from the hospital and back with the team around 2:30 am last night – he will likely be able to play again this year. With or without Allan Ray on the court this Friday at Wachovia, this most resilient of teams, this band of brothers, will find a way to regroup and come back strong and the 'Nova Nation will be ready to cheer on the Cats with fervor.
No team can match the attitude and heart of this Villanova Wildcat team – none.
God Bless A-Ray.

Kris Jenkins

Quickly becoming one of my favorite Nova players ever. Every game, he just gets more and more confident. His jumper right now is hot fire, and his floor game is great.

His reverse dunk was something I certainly did not expect from him today.

And on top of all that, he's an emotional leader and a great kid. And he's better defensively than we sometimes give him credit for.

Last 8 games, he's averaging 20 PPG and shooting 53% (45% from 3).

Stud.

1 seeds

pretty much everyone up for a 1 seed won today with the exception of Xavier.

I think -
- Kansas is #1 in the Midwest regardless of what happens in the Big XII
- Nova controls it's destiny for #1 in the East
- MSU controls it's destiny for #1 in the West (by virtue of being locked out of a region by Kansas)
- The UNC/UVA winner is #1 in the South

Oregon, and the ACC loser would line up next for 1 seeds
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