Just some quick thoughts about Marquette...
I've watched Marquette 3 times this year and when looking at the numbers, I was so surprised that their defensive numbers were so good. I totally forgot that their OOC schedule was putrid and looking at their conference only numbers made me feel better about what I thought I was seeing out on the court.
Marquette has an 8 man rotation and their 3rd string big man may get some run as he has in the past few games, so I guess 8.5. They start 3 freshman, a sophomore and a junior.
Marquette has some nice size and length, but I'm not sure it's anything to be worried about. Ochefu will likely guard Fischer and I'd put Brunson on Carter, but here's is where it gets interesting. Cheathem has some size and gets to the rim, so I'd put Arch on him. That leaves Hart and Jenkins and I'd likely flip flop them around...I'd put Hart on Ellenson and Jenkins on Cohen.
The rationale for that is Ellinson has a high usage rate, and roughly every fourth shot he takes is a 3. He doesn't post up a ton (not nearly enough for his skill in the post) and gets the ball out on the perimeter a lot. Both him and Fisher play volleyball with offensive misses.
Marquette turns the ball over a lot. Even with their terrible OOC, they are 316th in total turnovers this season with 242. Point of reference, we are 34th in the nation with 167. Especially Carter and Ellinson are very loose with the rock.
Ellinson has a high usage rate (over 27%, higher than any usage rate Scottie Reynolds ever had) so according to ADP, he's a plug and play type kid put in the right situation and that's why he's putting up numbers. But for everyone else, the kid can play, but he's like Angel Delgado...Charmin soft. And in conference games, Ellinson's offensive rating is 84. As a point of reference, amongst our regulars, Phil Booth has the lowest ORtg at 104.
When Ellinson and Fisher are on the floor, their defense is not good. When Fisher is by himself, my eye test said they were better, but they are, indeed, not better than when Ellinson is playing the 5. I thought that was interesting.
Marquette doesn't shoot a ton of 3's (15-50 so far during conference play) and they attack the hoop and get to the line. They seem to play fast as they force a lot of steals and force a lot of turnovers, but they also turn the ball over a lot (as I mentioned above) The 1-2-1-1 press should slow them down and force turnovers. Defensively in conference, they give up open shots, they foul a lot and give up a lot of rebounds (though that is likely due to their fast pace) They block some shots, but we should be able to get around their guards and if we don't, we'll likely get fouled.
Not a ton to be worried about unless Cheathem can consistently get to the rim. I think we'll play Bridges a lot in this game and Hart will eventually guard Cheathem to slow him down.
The line, as of now, is -19. That's an aggressive line, but it should be around that area for a 'Cats win.
