Before the season started, and early on in the season as well, we had some nice back-and-forth about how good this team would be, and whether there would be a drop-off from last year after losing 3 starters.
Prior to the start of the season, it was generally agreed that we would have a harder time on defense and especially rebounding. On the flip side, with the addition of Brunson and Jenkins in the starting line-up, the general consensus was our offensive output would increase.
Mid-way+ thru the season, we are actually seeing a better (statistically) defense, and a less effective offense. The differences are slight, but they are there. Defensively, we have an eFG% of 43.9% vs a full-year 45.5% last year. Offensively we have an eFG% of 54.3 vs 55.3 last year. Our 2P FG% is way up this year and 3P is way down. Also, it is interesting to note that our % of offensive rebounds given up this year is exactly the same as last year (31%).
We played a much tougher OOC this year, which has resulted in the top SOS (to date) and top RPI. We are at the top or near the top in every statistical model that measures team performance.
Looking at individual players...
Arch: Much improved (thanks to no injuries) OOC. Early Big East shooting is up and down, but while his efficiency is down, he is contributing more defensively and with rebounding.
Hart: major junior year leap. Lucky to have him!
Jenkins: started slow but he has really started to blossom into his 4-man starting roll. Shooting is still below average, but he has expanded his game and is contributing defensively as well.
Ochefu: I would say he is better offensively year over year at times, and other times not so much. Defense and rebounding are both better.
Booth: Hard to keep up with last year's efficiency, but his lack of aggression is surprising. Next year I expect a change. His defense is better, but he still lacks the aggressive nature that Jay loves to help generate TOs.
Reynolds: His offensive game actually looks worse, but he has held his own nicely defensively in significantly more minutes than he is used to.
Losing JVP, DH, Ennis: Gaining Brunson, Bridges, DD: Obviously you can't replace SR leadership and production with freshmen, but I have been super-impressed with what we have gotten from both Brunson and Bridges. Brunson to me has performed just about where I expected. He is probably holding back a bit, but that's normal. Bridges is amazing. Who'd have thought his impact would be this big and consistent every single game? DD got hurt and his rookie season really got hurt by it. He wasn't going to play much in the BE schedule, but he is losing out on practices too. I like his potential though and expect big things from him over the rest of his career.
I think overall we are about the same right now as we were last year, but with the potential to be better overall if we can find some consistency with our outside shooting. We have addressed rebounding and defense nicely, and if our offense picks up, we can be really really dangerous in March.
