It’s been a great season. Here is a brief recap, a look forward to Josh’s draft prospects, and a few other things.
Points Per Possessions for the season
SHOT CHARTS vs UNC
Oddly clustered chart, left side of the court was lava. We shot extremely well in the mid-range and from 3pt.
Carolina’s best game from 3pt wasn’t enough. We did an excellent job defending the hoop and mid-range.
A FEW NOTES
- All four 3pt shots Jenkins took in the game were within 2 steps of where he hit the game winner.
- According to Matt Norlander who was sitting in front of the Nova section, Jenkins ran over to the Villanova section and yelled “What can they say now! Let’s ****ing go!”
KENPOM PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Brice Johnson was Kenpom’s Player of The Year. We held him to 14 points, which was his lowest total of the tournament, and his lowest efficiency of the tournament.
Josh Hart finished up at the #5 player in Kenpom. The Top 10 was as follows….
Brice Johnson
Malcolm Brogdon
Buddy Hield
Denzel Valentine
Josh Hart
Perry Ellis
Georges Niang
Domantas Sabonis
Thomas Walkup
Anthony Gil
CAN JOSH MAKE THE NBA?
Josh will be testing the NBA water – as he should be. Below is what I did last year for Hilliard and just added Josh's info.
Darrun measures out at 6’5.5” in shoes
(Hart6'4.5") with a 6’9” wingspan
(Hart6'7.5").
To give you some idea of how that stacks up, here are top wing prospects in the draft. All heights are in shoes, players are cherry picked based upon similar game / role as well as having easily accessible metrics.
2015
Hilliard 6’5.5” & 6’9”
Winslow 6’4.5” & 6’10”
Stanley Johnson 6’5” & 6’11.5”
Kelly Oubre 6’5.75” & 7’2.5”
Sam Dekker 6’7.75” & 6’11.5”
Justin Anderson 6’5.25” & 6’11.75”
2016
Hart 6’4.5” & 6’7.5”
Jaylen Brown 6’6.5” & 7’0.5”
Denzel Valentine 6’6” & 6’10”
Taurean Prince 6’7.5” & 6’11”
Malcolm Brogdon 6’5.5” & 6’10”
Wayne Selden 6’5” & 6’10”
Michael Gbinije 6’6.5” & 6’6”
Darrun was a little off the top prospects but still in the ballpark, Josh however is off the pace of the top prospects. The measurables are important because if Darrun (and now Josh) are going to make a living in the league, it will likely be as a 3 & D player. Defensive ability is harder to figure out from a statistics point of view, but measurables can give you an idea.
On a minutes weighted average basis the NBA SF is 6’6.5” Barefoot (don’t have Darrun’s or Josh’s height Barefoot) with a 6’11.1” Wingspan. For a SG it is 6’4.2” and a 6’8.2” Wingspan.
(Hart6'4.5" in shoes & 6'7.5" wingspan)
Darrun’s 8’7.5” standing reach fits in about average. (Do not have Josh’s)
Darrun shot a lot of three pointers last year, 205 actually
(Josh shot 154) which was 54% of his total shots. A remarkable 114 of those were from NBA range. Believe it or not he shot 39% from both three point range
and NBA three point range. The shot chart below is only from NBA 3pt range. It is excellent news that he already has NBA range.
Josh shot 86 NBA range 3pt shots and connected on 30%. However he shot 43% from between the college 3pt line and the NBA line. I do believe he can continue to extend his range with work, which we all know he will put in.
DARRUN NBA RANGE
Josh Hart NBA 3pt Range
The Villanova homers will say that Darrun can be a poor man’s Danny Green. How realistic is this comparison? Well Green takes 62% of his shots from 3pt land and hits 41% of them. He is 6’6.5” tall in shoes with a 6’10” wingspan. Pretty much the same shots, percentages, and body as Darrun. Josh on the other hand takes 34% of his shots from 3pt, while doing most of his damage with high efficiency at the rim and in mid-range. I’ll admit that Josh’s jump stop in the lane, and sweet mid-range shot may not translate to the next level.
At this point you might be thinking that somebody smarter than me, and with (even) more time on their hands has put together a model to project pro players off of their college stats and physical dimensions. And you would be correct,
fivethirtyeight has put together a fascinating analysis that I definitely recommend reading. The algorithm projects Darrun as the #46 overall prospect (FYI the draft is a total of 60 picks), with a 6% chance he becomes an NBA starter, 43% chance of becoming a role player and a 51% chance he is bust prospect. I actually like those odds – the model projects a fairly high likelihood that Darrun will in fact become a role player in the NBA. Read the article, it is nothing short of excellent, and looks even better with the benefit of hindsight. Hopefully they put out a 2016 version of the article in the weeks before the draft.
So does Josh get drafted?
I thought Darrun’s skill set and body made him an excellent NBA prospect, I expected him to get drafted. By the numbers, Josh shouldn’t be the same level of prospect, however winning a national championship will do wonders for your draft stock. I think there is a very good chance Josh slips into the late first round or early second round. And I think this never would have happened without a deep tournament run.
MORE KENPOM
Kenpom has been producing his player of the year standings for six years, meaning we have a track record of five years for how those top 10 players do in the draft and whether they stick in the NBA. This is particularly interesting since Josh finished up as the #5 player.
This is a lot to take in, but here are some thoughts…
- The NBA has 420 players and the draft is 60 players. 14% of the league does not turnover on a yearly basis, so simply making a roster and getting minutes is an accomplishment in itself.
- The KPOY list has been exceptionally good at identifying good draft values. Anybody could see that Karl-Anthony Towns was a star, but every team passed over Draymond Green at least once.
- The list pretty clearly doesn't work as well for short guards, they may put up excellent numbers in college, but that skill set does not necessarily translate to the NBA level.
- I suspect there will be some tremendous draft values in this year's Kenpom top 10 players. Especially seeing as 3 are expected to be 2nd round picks, and 6 are not expected to be drafted at all. There are no short point guards in the group either.
- Of the 46 players (not 50 due to repeats) on the list from past years, 36 are still in the NBA. And there are only 4 on the list taller than 6'4" that are not still in the league. It’s tough to play basketball as a short guy, as I can personally attest.
- Only 3 guys on the list went undrafted, and one of them (Sean Kilpatrick) ended up signing and is still in the league.
FINAL THOUGHTS ON 2015-2016
There is a new “the shot”
The ride home from Providence, from Detroit, from Detroit again, from Buffalo. Those were the lows, hung over, sleep deprived, dejected. After Buffalo we vowed never to go to a first round game again. Of course a year later we were sucked right back in. This year the air in Brooklyn felt different. The team was focused, determined. To knock this team out you were going to have to earn it. The fans felt the determined confidence too.
It is a strange feeling to know that the greatest experience of my life just happened. My friends and I tried to process everything post game at the bar. Sure we will all get married and have kids… (and some of us already have) but those days you will know the outcome. Those days are the beginning of long journeys. That Monday night the outcome was never certain until the ball went through the rim (or when it left Kris’ hand according to Jay). This day was the end of the journey, the top of the mountain. From that mountaintop every Villanovan was screaming and crying pure joy.
Jay isn’t going to stop coaching and we aren’t going to stop cheering, but now that we’ve been to the top it isn’t going to be the same. That’s ok, because the view from the top isn’t one I’ll ever forget.