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Belmont

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HereComeTheCats

VUSports.com All-American
Mar 27, 2009
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Some great racing tomorrow at Belmont. 5 graded stakes races with 4 races $1M+. With rain in the forecast early tomorrow, I may forego the beach and hit up Monmouth from some live/simulcast racing. Although, with the Twin Spires app, I could sit on the beach with some beers and get the best of both worlds.

In the 6th (Brooklyn Inv.) I'm a sucker for dual entries so I'm going with an exacta of Pletcher's horses 1/1A with V.E. Day

I like Promise Me Silver in the Acorn (7th)

The Met Mile (9th) has Bayern and Tonalist as the likely favorites with Pants on Fire as my exata pair with last year's Belmont winner Tonalist. Wicked Strong and Kobe's Back could make the most hated exacta pair of the day.

I like Finnegans Wake on the turf in The Manhattan (10th)

I will likely make some stupid long shot bet in the Belmont Stakes depending on how much I have left in my account around 6:45 tomorrow. Madefromlucky will be involved in any of my action.

Rayhad, what are your thoughts?
 
I have patients all day today. Will try to post thoughts tonight or tomorrow morning. Good luck, cash em don't trash em
 
Really a ridiculous card.. its actually 6 G1s, 2 G2s, a G3 and the Easy Goer to kick it all off. Breeders'esque day. The Met Mile field is stacked. Haven't given any thoughts to bets yet really. May try the early pick 4 and will post up card if i have time tomorrow.
 
Haven't given any of the other races a thought as an only occasional bettor on the horses (and rarely since movng from PA to MD), but I think Pharaoh gets it done tomorrow. Have not thought that about any of the other TC possibilities other than Smarty Jones.
 
Great card.

If AP loses it will be a scenario that beats him, not a horse. Not a great crop
of runners he's facing. Frosted would be most logical upsetter.
 
Race 3 I'm trying to beat Competitive Edge here with 4 (beaten favorite last time out) and 6 (route to sprint).
 
Right church, wrong pew there.

Fwiw, I hear a virus is going around Todd Pletcher's barn. His horses ran last and second last.

Anyway, the late Pick 4:

Race 8: ALL
Race 9: 4,6,7,9
Race 10: 4,5,6,9
Race 11: 5

$0.50 base wager will cost $80 for the ticket.

Keying American Pharoah and hoping to catch a price earlier.
 
Pretty sure Pharoah doesn't have the chops for the distance. In fact, wouldn't be shocked if he finished down the field.
 
What a race. Fantastic horse. I hope to see him at Monmouth for the Haskell.

I had some early wins in the 5th and 6th but gave it all back and then some.
 
$180 exacta straight.

#BigUnitRandyJohnson
#TomCruise?
 
538 has a nice piece on American Pharoah. Great horse. Not historic, though.
 
Not the best ever but I wouldn't say his performance wasn't historic. The first win in 37 years and a classy win at that. The 538 piece even points out that based on times, AP would have come in 2nd in a race of all 12 Triple Crown winners. Not Secretariat but still a wonderful horse.
 
Just looking at triple crown races----AP's derby time was about the 50th best of all time. 7th best Belmont. Great horse. Shy of historic. Very cool to see a triple crown winner though.
 
YourBuddyRayhad said:
Right church, wrong pew there.

Fwiw, I hear a virus is going around Todd Pletcher's barn. His horses ran last and second last.

Anyway, the late Pick 4:

Race 8: ALL
Race 9: 4,6,7,9
Race 10: 4,5,6,9
Race 11: 5

$0.50 base wager will cost $80 for the ticket.

Keying American Pharoah and hoping to catch a price earlier.
Click to expand...
Rayhad.. I had almost the same exact ticket on the late pick 4 (minus the 9 in the 10th). That 10 race blew up many I am sure. Great race day though. Met was a real fun race to watch as well.
 
Isn't winning the TC historic by it's very nature?

Thought he ran three really impressive races, especially the last one.
 
Ninetynine5.0 said:
Isn't winning the TC historic by it's very nature?

Thought he ran three really impressive races, especially the last one.
Click to expand...

Yep.

People downplaying this are the same dudes that look at a pic of some smoke piece and point out some imperfection, then state they wouldn't hit it. Eff outta here.
 
YourBuddyRayhad said:
He never looked like a loser for a second, made 3/5 odds look like a total gift.
Click to expand...
When Frosted caught up at the top of the stretch, I had about 1 second where I had a doubt. Then AP took off, and it was all over but the crying.
 
Ninetynine5.0 said:
Isn't winning the TC historic by it's very nature?
Click to expand...
I suppose. That's why I went back and looked at times (and not just those of the handful of triple crown winners as 538 did) to see where AP stands all-time. How much is the triple crown a function of greatness and how much depends on your competition? That's where I was curious. Burrs---why the need to hate when someone investigates the numbers?

AP is a great horse. As others have said, the Belmont was a devastating performance. Dominant in every way.
 
Not exactly a racing guy, but could his numbers also be tied to his competition? Watching on Saturday, it seemed like he was one of these rare horses that just had the ability to summon speed at will. Kind of like they used to say about Barbaro before the injury. Wondering if it mattered who his competition was - seemed like his rider toyed with the field in each race, especially the Belmont. Never even seemed to be challenged much - so wondering if he could have even been better than what we saw. Seemed like he had a lot in the tank at the end of all three of these races. What I loved about Saturday is that he left zero doubt. From the before the first turn, he was sending the message.
 
I won't pretend to know anything about horses or horse racing. However, I read the Beyer article Liz linked in the WaPost. Can someone explain in simplistic terms why asking a race horse to run 3 times in 5 weeks is considered very demanding? I'm sure that it is and I have no knowledge to the contrary. On it's face, it just doesn't seem all that tough. Is the training for a race tough? What is it that is so hard? Usually by the time Belmont rolls around only a limited number of horses run so it would seem to get easier in terms of traffic. I simply don't have an appreciation for the stress one of these races puts on a horse. If anyone have some basic understanding I would appreciate the explanation.
 
It's hard to compare times over different races with different fields. The pace is determined by the field and many horses need a push to run their fastest. It's the nature of horses being pack animals. If no one is challenging the leader, they will just sit back and cruise rather than running all out each race.

I think there are a few things that play into the recovery time. For the Triple Crown or all the big destination stakes races in general, the travel is as much of a tiring factor on the horse as the race itself. Horses will usually get 3-4 weeks of rest at a minimum so running 3 races in about 1 month is pretty rough on the horse.
 
I'll admit that I don't know the ins and outs of all 8 horses but I think Frosted did a good job of pushing the pace and probably contributed to relatively fast Belmont for AP. It's hard to say at this point if AP was dominant because of his exceptionalism or if it's a weak field. Seeing how the other horses perform in future races will help I guess. Going off the comments from the jockeys and people who know more than me, he's a very special horse.
 
That was a pretty good article. Has AP's owner commented on his racing future? BTW - He's Jersey owned. Gotta love that.
 
He ran the second 3/4 faster than the first, which meant he probably could have run faster than he did.
 
Zayat said he wants to race him until the end of the year. He made it seem in the article I read that because he already sold the stud rights, he isn't the sole decider but I like the chances of seeing him run 2-3 more times. Baffert loves the Haskell and as mentioned Zayat lives in NJ so there's a great chance he'll run the Haskell on 8/2 then the Breeders Cup.
 
Haskell is likely his next race. Zayat lives near the track and Baffert generally runs his best 3 yr old in the race. After that either the Travers or Pacific Classic. Then the BC Classic. Hopefully it's smooth sailing for him on the injury front. The slightest hiccup and they won't run him again. Shame that Shared Belief got hurt. Really would've liked to see him and AP go at it in the Classic. Shared Belief doesn't have any balls so they'll run him again when he's healthy. Probably next yr.
 
Oh and that race was over at the 1/2 mile marker when they were crawling at 48.4. From there it was all academic.
 
TheFoyeEffect said:
He ran the second 3/4 faster than the first, which meant he probably could have run faster than he did.
Click to expand...
Good point. The first part of the race was slooow. That stat is a nod to Secretariat--running each 1/4 mile faster than the previous one at the Derby (and setting the still-standing Derby record in the process).
 
LizReed said:
Good point. The first part of the race was slooow. That stat is a nod to Secretariat--running each 1/4 mile faster than the previous one at the Derby (and setting the still-standing Derby record in the process).
Click to expand...
He also went through a mile and a quarter at Belmont at 1:59 I believe.
 
TommySalami said:
Can someone who speaks degenerate gambler translate this?
Click to expand...

Think this means the golden puppy won $180 by hitting the exacta straight (5-6 horses). Since this paid about $14 for every $2 bet, that would mean Coscto the Great wagered about $26 on the 5-6 exacta. Since he's a degenerate, I doubt this was his only wager so his proclamation that he "won" 180 is typical gambling addict math. Only look at what he took in and call it a "win" and forget that he probably spent $300 to "win" the 180.

The "Big Unit" thing is a reference to how gdog and his frat boi brahs call their winnings "units" as in "Brah, I totally crushed that reverse teaser for major units...totes redonks, Clark"

Have no idea what Tom Cruise means. He's friends with Rayhad so maybe a veiled reference to his own in the closet-ness.
 
Gdog had an $180 wager, so 90 x 13.50 - $180 is what he won.

I have absolutely no idea what Tom Cruise means tho, not in this context. Certainly not something I've ever heard at the track
 
So gdog randomly wagered $180 on the 5-6? Ballsy. Also why 180? Why not 200 even?

And you don't get the 180 back?
 
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