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Investment Idea Thread

Mr. Wade Garrett

Mr. Wade Garrett

VUSports.com Addict
Dec 11, 2007
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There is a decent amount of financial intelligence on this newgroup. Interested to see if we can get a sporadic investment idea thread going.

Before i start, the following jokes are off limits because they are so telegraphed:
Market at 14k
Rita's Franchises
Stealing Facebook from Finkelweiner
JC Penney private equity
(all other tjc financial success stories are on the table though)

As for me:
Loaded some cash into ETW today in a tax free IRA as a long term play.
Also interested in NLY, but a little concerned as the curve is sure to flatten.

From a more pedestrian perspective, I like multifamily investment properties as the homeownership rate is sure to plummet in the coming decade.

What are you more astute guys involved in these days?
Anything piquing your interest that you haven't pulled the trigger on yet?
 
Last night I sold my house on Capitol Hill. Close in 30 days. Held it for a long time and thought I'd have it forever. However, the real estate market here (on Hill) is crazy. My place was ten years old, my tenant moved out and I didn't want to sink any money into the place. Listed Saturday, two offers and got just above list Tuesday. No idea what I'm going to do with the cash. Just knew I wanted to have the cash freed up. Feel as if we're about to get into the silly season with uncertainty. I'm in a different place in my life with 3 kids and bills. However, we wife and have saved. do ok and have some money to invest in something. We have money in the market but sitting on some cash and have no clue what to do. I just knew I wanted to cash the real estate as it was very hot in DC. We did a renovation on our current house and felt pot committed on real estate for the moment. Where now?
 
adp98 said:
Last night I sold my house on Capitol Hill. Close in 30 days. Held it for a long time and thought I'd have it forever. However, the real estate market here (on Hill) is crazy. My place was ten years old, my tenant moved out and I didn't want to sink any money into the place. Listed Saturday, two offers and got just above list Tuesday. No idea what I'm going to do with the cash. Just knew I wanted to have the cash freed up. Feel as if we're about to get into the silly season with uncertainty. I'm in a different place in my life with 3 kids and bills. However, we wife and have saved. do ok and have some money to invest in something. We have money in the market but sitting on some cash and have no clue what to do. I just knew I wanted to cash the real estate as it was very hot in DC. We did a renovation on our current house and felt pot committed on real estate for the moment. Where now?
Click to expand...

You might think about tossing that cash into a four unit multifamily in the DC area. Plenty of colleges and decent employment in the city. And the outlook for millenials is UGLY. Perma-renters abound.
Retardledly low interest rates, a bleak future for millenials and a multifamily market that hasnt caught fire the same as SFH.... Homerun, batflip, cap tip, ADP is retired by the time kids hit junior high.
 
Mr. Wade Garrett said:
You might think about tossing that cash into a four unit multifamily in the DC area. Plenty of colleges and decent employment in the city. And the outlook for millenials is UGLY. Perma-renters abound.
Retardledly low interest rates, a bleak future for millenials and a multifamily market that hasnt caught fire the same as SFH.... Homerun, batflip, cap tip, ADP is retired by the time kids hit junior high.
Click to expand...
I didn't want to be a landlord anymore so that idea's out. However, I like it and agree it's smart. My wife would probably agree. She wants to flip into something else in Northern VA.
 
Invested in the Cardinals pick 'em (-115) v the visiting Patriots yesterday for NFL WK 1. Book failed to adjust the number off of Brady suspension news.
 
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SnottieDrippen said:
Adp please give me 300 dollars
Click to expand...

episode-17-05.jpg
 
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adp if you are cool to the idea of being a landlord (and that is something i certainly respect), why don't you look into being a minority investor in larger building?
 
Charles Barkley had a very smart advisor in his early years. Had him invest in college town real estate. Talk about a cash cow. 12 months of rent and more demand than supply.

Won't you get hit with a big tax bill if you don't roll your proceeds into another property?
 
tomdudes said:
Charles Barkley had a very smart advisor in his early years. Had him invest in college town real estate. Talk about a cash cow. 12 months of rent and more demand than supply.

Won't you get hit with a big tax bill if you don't roll your proceeds into another property?
Click to expand...

For an investment property, you pay ordinary income tax rates on the amount of depreciation you have deducted over the years, and the rest is a capital gain. since adp is a bulge bracketer, he will have to pay his medicare investment tax too. thanks obama.

My friends and I have kicked around buying houses in college towns and renting them as airbnbs. For a crubby game like Pitt-Clemson , a house in clemson, sc rents for $3,000/night.....I can only imagine what they would fetch when clemson plays FSU or South Carolina.

We also kicked around doing the same thing for pro stadiums. Plenty of stadiums are in gentrifying areas....just find a dump, fix it up, and rent it 8-10 weekends a year.
 
KennyTheKangaroo said:
adp if you are cool to the idea of being a landlord (and that is something i certainly respect), why don't you look into being a minority investor in larger building?
Click to expand...
Few buddies and I have explored buying something in the 10-20 unit range. I'm open to that idea. Just have a feeli nd we will see another form of market correction soon. Weird things happen in presidential years.
 
tomdudes said:
Charles Barkley had a very smart advisor in his early years. Had him invest in college town real estate. Talk about a cash cow. 12 months of rent and more demand than supply.

Won't you get hit with a big tax bill if you don't roll your proceeds into another property?
Click to expand...
My buddy did this with all his bonus money. He has a bunch of places on morgantown. You can't do that where I live. Too expensive.
 
Anything tied to colleges could go either way, no? What if the a$$ falls out on traditional college? it has to eventually with online classes, no? Or maybe some socialist gives everyone free college and demand goes through the ceiling.
 
NickleDimer said:
Anything tied to colleges could go either way, no? What if the a$$ falls out on traditional college? it has to eventually with online classes, no? Or maybe some socialist gives everyone free college and demand goes through the ceiling.
Click to expand...
Not in towns like Morgantown with big state U. Your downside is the units get destroyed and you have to maintain them. However, if you have the upfront cash it's a great way to have steady income.
 
I realize that Barkley hit the boomer kid cycle which caused a run up in college kids looking for housing. He said that ongoing income was the reason he never worried about his gambling losses. Basically said that he never had to rely on his salary or endorsements because he had so much revenue from real estate.
 
I've had a first hand look at state college PA and Gainesville FL and like adp said, big state U has a very steady demand.
 
That's the key. If we were smart we'd buy a building in Morgantown. Darn, an idea might of just come together.
 
adp98 said:
Not in towns like Morgantown with big state U. Your downside is the units get destroyed and you have to maintain them. However, if you have the upfront cash it's a great way to have steady income.
Click to expand...
Mom and dad aren't cosigning those leases and covering damages?
I would think that purchasing existing housing at big State U would be expensive enough that it would beat up your return. You're assuming that the existing owners are ignorant?
 
I would imagine the cost would outweigh the benefit of suing someone for damages to a crapshack apartment in morgantwon.
 
NickleDimer said:
Mom and dad aren't cosigning those leases and covering damages?
I would think that purchasing existing housing at big State U would be expensive enough that it would beat up your return. You're assuming that the existing owners are ignorant?
Click to expand...
Loads of new buildings going up in Morgantown. That is the college, bigbstate u market I'm most familiar. And yes, you obviously have parents cosign etc...but it still requires having the right people on the ground to do the work and someone to manage. I said that's the downside. Small one we could agree.
 
adp98 said:
Loads of new buildings going up in Morgantown. That is the college, bigbstate u market I'm most familiar. And yes, you obviously have parents cosign etc...but it still requires having the right people on the ground to do the work and someone to manage. I said that's the downside. Small one we could agree.
Click to expand...

A piece of a well-managed large scale development would be the way to go. Ideally they would have a management company and gr8 processes in place from prior projects.

I've also heard of some people making hay on low income housing development.
 
I'm a bit of a novice. What exactly is "regional real estate"? How do you distinguish from local and national? Especially if you are talking about one property be it single of multi-dwelling.
 
NickleDimer said:
A piece of a well-managed large scale development would be the way to go. Ideally they would have a management company and gr8 processes in place from prior projects.

I've also heard of some people making hay on low income housing development.
Click to expand...
I'd rather fleece college kids as opposed to poor people. I'm a man for the people not donald sterling.
 
My favorite trade has been:

Short AUDNZD

Entry: 1.1250
Targert: 1.08
S/L 1.1350 (above recent highs)
Mostly playing this for the AUD leg of the trade, but don't really feel comfortable in straight long USD given the FOMC yesterday. If you can be patient, AUD may rally in the general USD weakness given dovish Feds, but AUD has the potential in late 2016 to trade mid to low 60s.

A lot of the rally since Jan 1 of the AUD has been on the back of stronger employment data, but the data was skewed due to a strange change in sampling size (along with outdated methodology), and will remain offered throughout the year. You also get the benefit of any surprise China deval, which I currently think is now under-priced in the markets (1m points are significantly down from 1000 on Jan 1 to roughly 220 now).

Not sure Kiwi is an asset I want to hold, I'm not an expert on Milk prices and Fonterra has been a mess the past few years, but it's a natural pair and should neutralize in the region well.
 
The damage bill for my sons apartment senior year was over $4,300. I'm guessing there was about $500 of real charges (to clean and paint) and the rest was Trumo-ed up BS. Just consider it another money making opportunity.
 
Mr. Wade Garrett said:
No, NickelDimer. This is supposed to be an ongoing idea exchange among privileged white males from all walks of life.
Click to expand...

Skew is closer to flat now on SPY than in January when people were paniced. I hate being short, but I am, also looking at some downside there on a rally into 2100. Unless earnings really impress (they won't), you're basically topped out on the valuation side. So no earnings expansion, cheaper vol, and at the top of a range, You can buy spy puts at a sub 13 vol for June, probably not a terrible trade to have one.

Edit - also looking at buying something in Vix, but who knows.

If you're trading your PA, you also need to think of your personal beta, but that's a different discussion.
 
adp, why don't you buy a bunch of crappy coal mines in wv? When Trumo came to Pittsburgh, he told us that he is going to bring back our coal mines and steel mills.
 
Hrc is good for the wallet. If she wins I'm going to take a page from the 47%ers and get mine.
 
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