Investment Idea Thread

[KennyTheKangaroo]

good bump.

In the brexit thread, i was going to ask tmj if he had any good brexit trades

instead, lets ask him here

btw i want electric cars to work, but i want musk to eat some humble pie someday.

 

[tomjackleman]

good bump.

In the brexit thread, i was going to ask tmj if he had any good brexit trades

instead, lets ask him here

btw i want electric cars to work, but i want musk to eat some humble pie someday.

I think the trade if you had the balls to do it is to be long Cable. It's undervalued when you look at the USD vs its peers this year, as the Brexit threat has kept it moving lower. Could see maybe a 1.60 handle if the remain wins easily. Soros says risk reward favors short GBP, but I think it's probably fairly priced in.

The polls show neck and neck, but odds makers favoring remain, I think based on the undecideds likely to swing to status quo. Hence why I would hope that you get a stronger than expected cable rally.

Honestly I don't think there's much to do in one day unless you have a strong opinion either way. I'm not touching it directly, will try to trade results and reposition after. I own vol and going to try to unload that on a good rally intraday today.

 

[tomjackleman]

TSLA down 11% in premarket. Shareholders have to be furious. This is going to be so fun to watch.

 

[FreddyShoop]

TSLA down 11% in premarket. Shareholders have to be furious. This is going to be so fun to watch.

Charles Schwab over here...

 

[adp98]

Isn't the vote bullshit anyway?

 

[tomjackleman]

Isn't the vote bullshit anyway?

Not legally binding, but I wouldn't call it bullshit. Would take 2-3 years to negotiate the exit, and there's lots that could be negotiated. Adds a huge element of uncertainty, which should weaken GBP, rally safe haven assets, and bring down multiples people are willing to pay. It'll be impactful if it's a no vote.

 

[adp98]

To the markets, no question. Good luck.

 

[NickleDimer]

I am looking to invest in real estate on THE HILL. Any leads?

 

[adp98]

You can't afford it.

 

[tomjackleman]

To the markets, no question. Good luck.

I mean it has significant political and social implications as well, those just take longer to take effect. Markets will react near instantaneously.

 

[NickleDimer]

You can't afford it.

I'm investing for a friend. We will call him "Chaka".

 

[tomjackleman]

. I own vol and going to try to unload that on a good rally intraday today.

Bang

 

[tomjackleman]

Latest poll shows leave at 48% vs stay at 42%.

 

[tomjackleman]

Bang

Bang

 

[adp98]

Just read remain in the EU is expected to win "handily".

 

[tomjackleman]

Just read remain in the EU is expected to win "handily".

Its still close, and UK law prevents reporting on it while the polls are open, so its really a quiet period right now. Its pouring rain in London right now. Bad for the remain vote, but probably not enough to swing the balance. Risk assets have rallied hard since yesterday, think it's probably overdone.

 

[adp98]

Heavy rains plays to the exit crowd. If you don't care you will stay home.

 

[tomjackleman]

Heavy rains plays to the exit crowd. If you don't care you will stay home.

thats what I said.

 

[NorCalVU10]

Despite what's being said I think that heavy rain might favor the exit side.

 

[adp98]

thats what I said.

Yep, I"m an idiot....didn't see it

 

[NovaNation1188]

Time to make England gr8 again. My girlfriend just voted for remain. I enjoyed going to her parents' house for a garden party 2 weeks ago. I had like 10 people come up to me and ask about Brexit. 7 said they can't believe some people are actually voting to leave. 3 others said they can't believe people actually vote stay. Seems like richer people prefer the status quo, can't blame them.

 

[NovaNation1188]

Heavy rains plays to the exit crowd. If you don't care you will stay home.

Also, I don't think rain really deters people in England. It rains every day all the time. Even thunderstorms, everyone's got a brolly.

 

[tomjackleman]

Also, I don't think rain really deters people in England. It rains every day all the time. Even thunderstorms, everyone's got a brolly.

It's flooding in some parts of London (not just raining), which skews towards remain given the heavy concentration of financial services in the city, most of which would be forced to recenter headquarters to elsewhere in the EU (Dublin and Frankfurt have been mentioned). Don't think it matters, but its a consideration to take into account if you're watching.

 

[PeterN]

UK polls are open until 2200 GMT for a good reason:

 

[tomjackleman]

Wow. Sky news posts a remain vote for Sunderland, GBP Cleara 1.50, then reverses on the official and GBP falls 500 pips. This is wild.

 

[tomjackleman]

Model now has leave in the lead, really close. English book makers have both sides at 5/6. Crazy, crazy night.

 

[tomjackleman]

Biggest move in GBP history at this point intraday. Absolutely stunning.

 

[tomjackleman]

Models now have leave at 97%.

Sell what you can right now. EUR to 1.10-1.11, GBP to 1.35 by morning. Lots of position puking to go through. Remains had gotten overconfident in the last couple of days and bulled up on cable. Spus already given up 2%.

Edit: now remain back in the lead somehow. Odds neck and neck on ladsbroke.

 

[adp98]

I'm sitting on a bunch of cash. Tell me when to go in.

 

[tomjackleman]

I'm sitting on a bunch of cash. Tell me when to go in.

Haha I don't hold trades for more than a day or two. You don't want me telling you when the proverbial 14k moment is. I sold short dated Vix puts at the close, so lots of anxiety over here.

A modeler just put the remain chances at 0 fwiw. I think it's much closer, and a stronger than expected London vote can push it more than models predict.

 

[adp98]

I'm too conservative anyway. that's why I'm sitting on it.

 

[tomjackleman]

I'm too conservative anyway. that's why I'm sitting on it.

Sell sterling if you want to make money right now. Global stocks taking an absolute beating. UK market isn't even open yet and it's given up 300 billion GBP worth. Black Swan event going on now.

 

[adp98]

No, I've got a guy that does my stuff. I'm waiting and figuring out if I man up and go with my buddies with real estate in Morgantown. That was the right call. Just hate having that money tied up.

 

[tomjackleman]

No, I've got a guy that does my stuff. I'm waiting and figuring out if I man up and go with my buddies with real estate in Morgantown. That was the right call. Just hate having that money tied up.

Hope he bought some puts.

 

[Mr. Wade Garrett]

Foxnews.com front page right now: "WHERE WAS IT? Clinton failed to turn over key email to State Department."

Second headline about black protestors on a college campus.

 

[tomjackleman]

Hope he bought some puts.

US Stocks down 3.75%. Bananas.

 

[tomjackleman]

Foxnews.com front page right now: "WHERE WAS IT? Clinton failed to turn over key email to State Department."

Second headline about black protestors on a college campus.

Check Lindsay Lohans Twitter if you need a laugh. World risk appetite just got destroyed. People are puking risk assets right now.

 

[Bethlehem Steel]

JPY/GBP

 

[tomjackleman]

JPY/GBP

JPY has Aso to intervene. Would be careful actually trading that. It should be at like 95 right now but the intervention makes me stay away.

 

[tomdudes]

There's a part of me that always wanted to jump into the finance sector, and then I look at some of these trades where positions are getting whipsawed and I just say, thanks but no thanks.