Mets

[NovaHoops2002]

Assuming Harvey is back and pitches well again I can honestly see the Mets making a run to the playoffs this year. I know Cuddyer was hurt last year, but he can hit and will really help that lineup. Not sure about Murphy leading off is that what they did last year? I see him more as a 2 hole hitter. They have a decent lineup and their rotation is young and good. Not sold on their bullpen though.

I'm not going out on a limb by saying the Nats should win the division, but I wouldn't be at all shocked if the Mets were in the Wild Card race.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20150212_NL_East_preview__Preseason_look_at_New_York_Mets.html

 

[adp98]

It will be interesting to see who from the Mets-Marlins duo emerges in the division. The Mets have a shot to be decent if they can hit and the pen holds up. The rotation looks solid and I like their position players more than most. The division is so bad at the bottom/middle that one of those two clubs should be positioned to take a solid step forward into the 85-90 win territory. 38 games vs. Phils/Braves is a huge advantage for the other 3 division teams.

 

[NovaHoops2002]

Originally posted by adp98:
It will be interesting to see who from the Mets-Marlins duo emerges in the division. The Mets have a shot to be decent if they can hit and the pen holds up. The rotation looks solid and I like their position players more than most. The division is so bad at the bottom/middle that one of those two clubs should be positioned to take a solid step forward into the 85-90 win territory. 38 games vs. Phils/Braves is a huge advantage for the other 3 division teams.

I'm not sold on Marlins just yet. If Fernandez was going to be back all year I could entertain the thought of them contending. But I am hearing June/July for him and who knows if they have him on some kind of innings limit. The rest of their rotation outside of maybe Alvarez is pretty weak. They have a good bullpen with Cishek closing. Their offense should put up numbers but overall I don't think they are that strong of a team.

 

[wcburrs87]

The Phillies will surprise everyone and play close to .500 ball.

I love how in every thread ADP had to remind us of how bad they are/will be.

Do i have anything else? Oh yea....Call me when the Nats' win a playoff series. Yawn. Most underachieving team in MLB over the last 3 years. Fact.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:
The Phillies will surprise everyone and play close to .500 ball.

I love how in every thread ADP had to remind us of how bad they are/will be.

Do i have anything else? Oh yea....Call me when the Nats' win a playoff series, and Lucas Duda wins something Yawn. Most underachieving team in MLB over the last 3 years. Fact.

Fixed.

 

[HereComeTheCats]

Just like every February I have high hopes for the Mets. By late May I will revert to apathy.

 

[NovaNation1188]

I'm pretty high on the Mets this year -- same reservations as everyone. I wouldn't be surprised if the 2nd NL Wildcard is an 85-86 game winner, so a lot of teams have a chance at it.

At 79 wins last year, are we 4-5 wins better with Harvey? Yeah, probably. Will deGrom pitch like he did last year, probably not. Hoping a few other guys can step up.

I'll go on record:

86 wins - 2nd wild card
Beat the Pirates @PNC Park

Don't want to predict anything else in fear of gdogging.

 

[LGBlue]

Reasonable areas to hope for improvement: Wright to get at least somewhat close where he was pre-2014, Flores to continue improvement and be able to play SS, and d'Arnaud to be like he was down the stretch. Not too much to ask.

Accepting same performance or better: Duda, Murph, Granderson, Legares. I say the same on Granderson because I do not believe it is reasonable to expect anything but what he gave last year, which I know isn't very good. Pleasantly surprised if one or more of the "same performance" guys actually get better this season.

I left out LF. Just give me anything on that, anything decent, a 1.0 WAR performance would be gravy at this point.

Pitching: agree on deGrom - can't be that good again can he? But add in Harvey, another year of seasoning on Wheeler, a hopefully healthy Niese and Gee for depth, maybe Syndergaard, and some Parnell not too far into the season. Like where they stand on pitching. Some will get better, some worse, overall they can handle that and be a good unit.

Very possible WC contender.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

A good and fairly young staff, with Steve Matz and Syndergaard on the way. Might be built to be decent for a few years here, provided the a hole owners don't eff it up. That is not a given and probably should be expected unfortunately. Small market owners in the biggest market we have. Shameful group. Alderson doing some solid work given the circumstances.

88 wins - but a few too many K's in that lineup for me.








This post was edited on 2/12 12:34 PM by Ninetynine5.0

 

[NovaNation1188]

The Mets are one of the reason why teams overpay for hitting. It's so hard to win without a few solid bats so teams overpay the long term knowing they'll only get a few good years -- but it's still worth it.

 

[adp98]

Burrs, the Nats, marlins and Mets all have an advantage over the NL central and west teams. Pointing that out if doing due diligence. The Central is going to be tough top-to-bottom. With San Diego's moves the west is stronger. The NL east is just not good on the bottom. You have what could be the two worst teams in the entire league within the same division. In an era of unbalanced shedules that's a huge deal for the Mets and marlins. They will play nearly a quarter of their games vs two clubs who should lose 180 games between them.

 

[NovaNation1188]

Path to Playoffs for Mets:

-76 Divisional Games
14-5 - Phillies
13-6 - Braves
11-8 - Marlins
8-11 - Nationals
(46 wins)

64 NL Games (might be a little more than that, but I'm going on two home and homes 3 games -- with a few 4 games series)
-32 - NL Central
16-16
-32 - NL West
14-18
(30 wins)

22 AL Games
10-12

86 total wins.

Baseball has always had the same recipe for success since 1995 (first wild card). Crush the crappy teams, play .500 against good teams.

 

[kjbert]

I don't know if they have enough offense to make it happen. When you are hanging your hopes on a 37 year old Michael Cuddyer to spark your lineup, or a 33 year old Curtis Granderson who just struck out 200 times or a broken down David Wright...I just don't have faith.

There was an offensive move to be made in the winter and they haven't done it (yet).

The defense is built appropriately for that ballpark, but the offense isn't. They should have signed Jacoby Ellsbury. Perfect guy for that park.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by kjbert:

I don't know if they have enough offense to make it happen. When you are hanging your hopes on a 37 year old Michael Cuddyer to spark your lineup, or a 33 year old Curtis Granderson who just struck out 200 times or a broken down David Wright...I just don't have faith.

There was an offensive move to be made in the winter and they haven't done it (yet).

The defense is built appropriately for that ballpark, but the offense isn't. They should have signed Jacoby Ellsbury. Perfect guy for that park.

They have moved the fences in again.

 

[Chimpat]

Originally posted by kjbert:

The defense is built appropriately for that ballpark, but the offense isn't. They should have signed Jacoby Ellsbury. Perfect guy for that park.

Except they have maybe the best defensive CF in baseball.

 

[wcburrs87]

NN1188, I'll take the Phillies over 5 wins vs the Mets.

And I think I read 88 total wins along the way from someone. Seems a bit ambitious.

Is Harvey back starting day 1?

What's the Mets' projected line-up? Can someone post Arak style?

 

[adp98]

Originally posted by Chimpat:

Originally posted by kjbert:

The defense is built appropriately for that ballpark, but the offense isn't. They should have signed Jacoby Ellsbury. Perfect guy for that park.

Except they have maybe the best defensive CF in baseball.

+2. Love the way he goes and gets the ball. Higher on him than most.

 

[LGBlue]

Yes, Harvey is projected opening day starter.

Potential lineup that day:


CF Juan Lagares
2B Daniel Murphy

3B David Wright

1B Lucas Duda

C Travis d'Arnaud

SS Wilmer Flores
RF Michael Cuddyer
LF Curtis Granderson

SP Harvey

 

[Chimpat]

Originally posted by adp98:

Originally posted by Chimpat:

Originally posted by kjbert:

The defense is built appropriately for that ballpark, but the offense isn't. They should have signed Jacoby Ellsbury. Perfect guy for that park.

Except they have maybe the best defensive CF in baseball.

+2. Love the way he goes and gets the ball. Higher on him than most.

ADP, I'm a Dodgers fan but living in NYC I watch a lot of the Mets (mostly because I love their broadcast team). Lagares is about as good as it gets defensively. Guy is really an incredible center fielder. Gets to everything and usually pretty comfortably. Very good player.

 

[NovaHoops2002]

Originally posted by LGBlue:
Yes, Harvey is projected opening day starter.

Potential lineup that day:


CF Juan Lagares
2B Daniel Murphy

3B David Wright

1B Lucas Duda

C Travis d'Arnaud

SS Wilmer Flores
RF Michael Cuddyer
LF Curtis Granderson

SP Harvey

Cuddyer should be higher than that. I know d'Arnaud is a breakout candidate but I would bat Cuddyer 5th.

This post was edited on 2/12 3:34 PM by NovaHoops2002

 

[adp98]

Chimpat, he robbed the Nats last year on a play at the center field wall that maybe 2 guys in the game make. Can't think of the other two.

 

[wcburrs87]

When did the Mets get Willie Mays?

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:

NN1188, I'll take the Phillies over 5 wins vs the Mets.

And I think I read 88 total wins along the way from someone. Seems a bit ambitious.

Is Harvey back starting day 1?

What's the Mets' projected line-up? Can someone post Arak style?

If you're not going to be baseball ambitious on February 12, when can you be?

I suspect Wilmer Flores will be somewhat of a butcher at SS, but he is athletic, was passable last year and he's hit everywhere he's been in the system so far. Solid MLB stint for 75 games or so as a 22 year old.

Staff of Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Niese, Gee and Colon. Matz and Syndergaard in the well. Some live arms in the pen with Mejia, Familai, Parnell back. Vic Black and Edgin were solid in the middle. Line up is not bad at all.

But this team wins only by pitching as expected. As a group they have not won, so they have to get that mind set first. Until they do, they don't have much to talk about. More optimistic than I've been in a while though. Again, why not, it's February.

 

[NovaNation1188]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:

NN1188, I'll take the Phillies over 5 wins vs the Mets.

I think it's possible for the Mets to go 14-5 against the phils, but not likely. My point necessarily wasn't supposed to be an exact prediction, but what the goals of the season should be. Need to really crush the worst teams out there to have a chance when you're not that good.

The Mets went 13-6 against the phillies in 2014.

 

[TheFoyeEffect]

The Mets have to hope that David Wright was bad last year because he had an injury that needed rest and not because he's getting older and has a bad shoulder.

Requisites to Mets success other than Wright:

1. Travis d'Arnaud staying healthy and continuing to progress.
Healthy
2. Getting league average production out of both corner outfielders.
3. Juan Lagares playing 140+ games, keeping his DRS over 25, and continuing his improved base stealing.
4. Matt Harvey playing well (not necessarily as dominant as 2013)
5. Zack Wheeler getting deeper into games.
6. Lucas Duda repeats his production from 2014.
7. Wilmer Flores producing at the plate and being better than late career Derek Jeter in the field.
8. Jenrry Mejia, Vic Black, Bobby Parnell, and Jeurys Familia being reliable in the bullpen.
9. Significant contributions from at least one pitching prospect and one hitting prospect.

Obviously, there are a lot of things there, but none of them are inherently unreasonable. I think that as composed right now, they're roughly a .500 team. The difference between being a .500 team and a playoff team in baseball isn't huge though.

 

[adp98]

Last year the Mets won 79 games. IMO, a 5+ game improvement is reasonable. Especially when you consider the division got much worse. The Braves appear to have taken a huge step backwards from where they entered last season. Division Champs 90 wins expeted. Today they look like a 75ish win team. There is simply no chance the Phillies can replace JROLL's defense. That alone should cause them to slip from a 73 win team to 67ish, maybe less.

 

[tomdudes]

Maybe I am confusing him with someone else, but will Cuddyer stay healthy playing outfield all year? Didn't he spend some time at 3B last few years? Obviously 3B is not an option with Wright being there for the Mets.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by adp98:
Last year the Mets won 79 games. IMO, a 5+ game improvement is reasonable. Especially when you consider the division got much worse. The Braves appear to have taken a huge step backwards from where they entered last season. Division Champs 90 wins expeted. Today they look like a 75ish win team. There is simply no chance the Phillies can replace JROLL's defense. That alone should cause them to slip from a 73 win team to 67ish, maybe less.

I dont see the Phillies dropping tha much, even if they unload Hamels and Lee. Losing 95 games is pretty hard. You gotta be a really a lot worse than bad. Dont think they will be that bad. Braves too. Braves will get back some arms healthy and that alone will keep them in a lot of games.

Far as the Mets, a lot of their inside numbers were decent, and on paper they should have had a few more wins. Ranked solidly in offense ( 8th in runs ). Gave up fewer runs than Royals and Pirates, who made playoffs, scored more than Cardinals, who made playoffs. Only team with positive run differential (+11) to be under .500 since 2012 Phillies who were just +1.

No doubt some things will have to come together TFE nailed them all pretty much. They are not terribly far fetched by any means.

When do the Vegas over unders come out? next week? I think they will have the Mets around 85.5 or 86.5.

Burrs, Lagaras is not willie Mays, but he is probably the best defensive CF in MLB right now. Dont be bitter - you had a great run.

 

[wcburrs87]

Originally posted by Ninetynine5.0:

Burrs, Lagaras is not willie Mays, but he is probably the best defensive CF in MLB right now. Dont be bitter - you had a great run.

And you're still waiting for the Mets' run to begin. One of these years it will happen. Has to, right?

and whose bitter? I just get a kick out of brightsiding over a fringe prospect, who exceeded expectations one year, and will ultimately come back to Earth. He has a snatch hair more power than Ben Revere and got on base less. Strikes out a lot, barely walks, and doesn't really steal bases. But by all means, splash the keyboards over a couple of nice catches.

 

[kjbert]

Originally posted by Chimpat:

Originally posted by kjbert:

The defense is built appropriately for that ballpark, but the offense isn't. They should have signed Jacoby Ellsbury. Perfect guy for that park.

Except they have maybe the best defensive CF in baseball.

Great. So they will lose their games 1-0 instead of 2-0.

 

[LGBlue]

Legares was already better than Ellsbury last season and he's 5 years younger and costs $140,000,000 less. He's far better defensively and was actually a plus factor already on offense. He will definitely be more noticed this season if he stays on the same path.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:

Originally posted by Ninetynine5.0:

Burrs, Lagaras is not willie Mays, but he is probably the best defensive CF in MLB right now. Dont be bitter - you had a great run.

And you're still waiting for the Mets' run to begin. One of these years it will happen. Has to, right?

and whose bitter? I just get a kick out of brightsiding over a fringe prospect, who exceeded expectations one year, and will ultimately come back to Earth. He has a snatch hair more power than Ben Revere and got on base less. Strikes out a lot, barely walks, and doesn't really steal bases. But by all means, splash the keyboards over a couple of nice catches.

Try watcing the games - guy won the GG handily and was spectacular in the field. You think that makes him a 'fringe prospect' . Pretty good chance a 25 year old can get a little better.

Very bitter. I dont blame you though.

 

[wcburrs87]

God, it's so easy with certain topics.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:
God, it's so easy with certain topics.

Certainly is - you are like clockwork.

 

[SnottieDrippen]

Burrs, all they said was that the guy is a great defensive player. Are you saying his defensive play is a fluke? I know stats can be misleading sometimes but if a guy makes great plays he makes great plays. No one is saying he makes a big impact outside of that.

 

[NovaNation1188]

A 25 year old sophomore who hits .280 -- who had a WAR of 5.5 in 2014 -- should probably be considered an impact player on a contender. I don't know how much higher his ceiling is, but his defense is really unmatched in the league right now.

People who don't properly value up the middle defense don't watch the game enough. Probably a ball every other game that Lagares makes a play on that most CFs don't get to.

 

[LGBlue]

Unfortunately the rest of the middle is Flores, Murph and d'Arnaud. Maybe d'Arnaud will improve, seems athletic enough. And maybe they move Murph, put Flores at 2B where he can be a plus factor, and get a first rate defensive SS.

And burrs, hope springs eternal. No need to be bitter before pitchers and catchers have even reported.

 

[Chimpat]

Originally posted by kjbert:

Originally posted by Chimpat:

Originally posted by kjbert:

The defense is built appropriately for that ballpark, but the offense isn't. They should have signed Jacoby Ellsbury. Perfect guy for that park.

Except they have maybe the best defensive CF in baseball.

Great. So they will lose their games 1-0 instead of 2-0.

KJ, you act like Ellsbury hits 30+ homers every year. He's a good player, no question but Lagares is better defensively. CF is not where the Mets need to dump significant money.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by LGBlue:
Unfortunately the rest of the middle is Flores, Murph and d'Arnaud. Maybe d'Arnaud will improve, seems athletic enough. And maybe they move Murph, put Flores at 2B where he can be a plus factor, and get a first rate defensive SS.

And burrs, hope springs eternal. No need to be bitter before pitchers and catchers have even reported.

Murphy's number suggests he's a serviceable if not solid position player, but he's not. He's a bigger issue than SS. Guy can hit a bit, but an awful base runner, and a below over fielder. Makes enough plays, but constantly making bad decisions out there.

 

[LGBlue]

Murph "does OK" defensively, which along with his offense makes him a desirable piece. I think that he would do really well in a hitter friendly park, he could probably put up tremendous 2B offensive numbers in NYY stadium or the like. Put him together with one of the excess arms that you are willing to part with, and maybe you can fetch a good SS and move Flores to 2B.