Mets

[NovaNation1188]

Originally posted by Ninetynine5.0:

Originally posted by LGBlue:
Unfortunately the rest of the middle is Flores, Murph and d'Arnaud. Maybe d'Arnaud will improve, seems athletic enough. And maybe they move Murph, put Flores at 2B where he can be a plus factor, and get a first rate defensive SS.

And burrs, hope springs eternal. No need to be bitter before pitchers and catchers have even reported.

Murphy's number suggests he's a serviceable if not solid position player, but he's not. He's a bigger issue than SS. Guy can hit a bit, but an awful base runner, and a below over fielder. Makes enough plays, but constantly making bad decisions out there.

Murph has gotten a lot better on the bases since the beginning of the 2013 season. A lot better. Guy was an all-star last year for God's sake.

The errors are a problem, but they certainly aren't enough to justify moving him. Of the 19 2nd basemen who qualify, 9 had negative defensive WAR last year. It's not like the Mets are the only one with this problem. Given the Mets have little/no hitting -- Murphy's consistency is what they need from the position.

 

[adp98]

Originally posted by NovaNation1188:
A 25 year old sophomore who hits .280 -- who had a WAR of 5.5 in 2014 -- should probably be considered an impact player on a contender. I don't know how much higher his ceiling is, but his defense is really unmatched in the league right now.

People who don't properly value up the middle defense don't watch the game enough. Probably a ball every other game that Lagares makes a play on that most CFs don't get to.

Smart post and I agree. I also believe defense at first base matters.

 

[adp98]

As for Murphy, he's gone from an absolute butcher to serviceable in the field. Note, I don't watch 145 Mets per year and it really takes a lot of games to fully understand someone's defense. So much is making the routine play and how many balls you get to. Tough to know unless you see a guy play a ton of games. However, I see almost all the Nats games and he's come along way since even last year. Given his offense he's the least of Mets worries. They need a SS (Desmond will be available in 9 months).

 

[wcburrs87]

Desmond is a butcher. You don't want him.

Who is playing 1B for the Nats this year? If it's Zimmerman, then obviously they don't value defense there. His throws to 2B will make Ryan Howard look like Keith Hernandez.

 

[wcburrs87]

Enough with the bitter crap. Bright side all you want over an overachiever who can track a ball. He ha no power to date, doesn't really steal bases, and gets on base less than Ben Revere. Yet, he'll be acceptable at the top of a line-up? I think he'll come back to Earth a little. Sorry, I don't feel it.

The Mets have good starting pitching and that will give them a chance every night. Their line-up is bland, led by a declining Wright, and their pen is unproven at best. Smells like .500 to me with a ceiling of 83-84 wins. Good for 3rd place in east.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Murph is not a butcher - but he's not anything resembling a smart player. Lot of dumb plays.

Far as SS - Flores has shown a lot of indications that he can hit. Spent all winter working on playing the position. He's 23. Not saying he is the solution but I'm willing to see what happens there. Worked out pretty well when they finally gave Lagaras the job, and in his starts at SS last year, Flores showed some signs of life, and didnt really kill them much at all. Actually made some nice plays. Not anticipating numerous posts about not appreciating his defense, but he's got some pop, he's a big kid, and until recently has never stayed at one position long enough to get a feel for it. Granted, that's mostly because he has not shown much proclivity to be good at any position so far. He's been the proverbial 'man without a position' till now.

Of course he's now at one of the more difficult positions on the field, but not like they have much choice at the moment. Cubs would be wise to take a shot at Syndergaard for one of their young SS's - but so far they've declined that. But the early returns on Flores at SS are not awful. Good article recently on Frangraphs about that. Some truly awful butcher jobs, but they were held to a minimum (4) and some truly good plays as well. He netted out a tick below average give or take - which is not awful considering his lack of experience. Actually somewhat promising, particularly given his bat. I think I can live with an ok fielding guy if he can give me 20 homers from the SS position. A lot of scouts think that's probably where he'll net out here.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:
Enough with the bitter crap. Bright side all you want over an overachiever who can track a ball. He ha no power to date, doesn't really steal bases, and gets on base less than Ben Revere. Yet, he'll be acceptable at the top of a line-up? I think he'll come back to Earth a little. Sorry, I don't feel it.

The Mets have good starting pitching and that will give them a chance every night. Their line-up is bland, led by a declining Wright, and their pen is unproven at best. Smells like .500 to me with a ceiling of 83-84 wins. Good for 3rd place in east.

The Mets should have enough guys who can put one out with Wright, Grandy, CMW LD WS, Cuddyer, with some additional pop from d'Arnaud, Flores, Murphy, Not everyone has to hit homers. Let Largares take away 40 runs a year, win gold gloves and not be terrible at the plate. Fine by me. Hitters tend to come back to earth - but when you play the field, teh only thing that really gets you is age. Won't have to worry about that for a while with Lagares. He should be patrolling out there for a while as long as he can put up a decent ave.

Notice this is the second time you put him in the same sentence as Revere. Watch a few games and don't do that again. You'll be better off. Trust me on that one. One guy has already lead all CFs in assists (2013, only playing 88 games) and one guy cannot reach 2nd base on a relay throw. A bit more from his win of Fielding Bible Award:

In 2013, Juan Lagares started only 88 games in center field, yet he
saved 26 runs there defensively for the Mets. He finished second in the
2013 Fielding Bible Award voting. This year he started 105 games, blew
away the field with another 28 runs saved, and won his first Fielding
Bible Award. His throwing arm in center field is superb and deeply
respected by baserunners; he had six Outfield Arm Runs Saved in 2014.
But it's his ability to cover ground that sets him above the rest. He
saved 20 more bases on deep balls than an average center fielder (+20
Plus/Minus), the highest total among all center fielders. This is true
despite the fact that, generally speaking, he plays on the shallow side.
He had a +11 total on shallow balls, second best among center fielders.
His +9 on medium hit balls was fourth best. Lagares finished first on
every ballot except one.


Again let's not put him and Ben Revere in the same sentence. Just not fair to Ben Revere.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Not bad for a 'fringe prospect'

 

[wcburrs87]

Good to see Dmil is all in on the saber stuff when it fits his agenda.

How does one "save a run"? How is this compiled? Are there a bunch nerds sitting in a room on a nightly basis arguing about if a player should of made a play. Sounds like exciting stuff. Oh yea, what is the "Fielding bible Award"?

I referenced Ben Revere in terms of OB% only. You know, because his isn't very good for a top-of-the-order guy and he's been ridiculed on here countless times. Yet, it is better than Lagares'. As his ability hit for average and steal bases.

Look, I get it. The kid can field, but he's not a complete player to date. And I'm busting balls in his brightsiding, which is obviously getting to you.

Please, don't ever tell me to watch the games. I watch as many as you, but unlike you, I won't proclaim to be an expert on CoDB sports like you do with the CoP.

I think I'll start bright siding about the mid-20's+ players that will be playing for the Phillies this. Yea, that and a possibly decent rotation and a solid pen. Maybe, I'll convince myself that they can win more games than expected because it's baseball and sometimes these things happen. Or, maybe I'll just stay here on Earth like some other fan bases should be doing but aren't. Then again, I'm still living off the fat of being relevant for a while and I do remember prior to that when I was starved for something positive to look forward to. So, I can empathize a bit here, I guess. Carry on....

 

[NovaNation1188]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:
Good to see Dmil is all in on the saber stuff when it fits his agenda.

How does one "save a run"? How is this compiled? Are there a bunch nerds sitting in a room on a nightly basis arguing about if a player should of made a play. Sounds like exciting stuff. Oh yea, what is the "Fielding bible Award"?

I referenced Ben Revere in terms of OB% only. You know, because his isn't very good for a top-of-the-order guy and he's been ridiculed on here countless times. Yet, it is better than Lagares'. As his ability hit for average and steal bases.

Look, I get it. The kid can field, but he's not a complete player to date. And I'm busting balls in his brightsiding, which is obviously getting to you.

Please, don't ever tell me to watch the games. I watch as many as you, but unlike you, I won't proclaim to be an expert on CoDB sports like you do with the CoP.

I think I'll start bright siding about the mid-20's+ players that will be playing for the Phillies this. Yea, that and a possibly decent rotation and a solid pen. Maybe, I'll convince myself that they can win more games than expected because it's baseball and sometimes these things happen. Or, maybe I'll just stay here on Earth like some other fan bases should be doing but aren't. Then again, I'm still living off the fat of being relevant for a while and I do remember prior to that when I was starved for something positive to look forward to. So, I can empathize a bit here, I guess. Carry on....

There are some people that say "clutch" doesn't exist -- and they'll use stats to back it up. After watching thousands of games in my life, I still believe in "the clutch" and that some people are better than others when in those situations. We all know a-rod is horrible in the clutch, but I'm sure someone could use stats to say he's better than jeetz.

I think the same can be said about defense. There are times I'm watching the Mets and I see Lagares make a play in a crucial part of the game that, truthfully, gives us a way better chance at winning. That's clutch. Others don't do what he does.

 

[wcburrs87]

Just for the record, I didn't tab him as a fringe prospect. Baseball people did. Maybe, they got lucky with him.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:
Good to see Dmil is all in on the saber stuff when it fits his agenda.

How does one "save a run"? How is this compiled? Are there a bunch nerds sitting in a room on a nightly basis arguing about if a player should of made a play. Sounds like exciting stuff. Oh yea, what is the "Fielding bible Award"?

I referenced Ben Revere in terms of OB% only. You know, because his isn't very good for a top-of-the-order guy and he's been ridiculed on here countless times. Yet, it is better than Lagares'. As his ability hit for average and steal bases.

Look, I get it. The kid can field, but he's not a complete player to date. And I'm busting balls in his brightsiding, which is obviously getting to you.

Please, don't ever tell me to watch the games. I watch as many as you, but unlike you, I won't proclaim to be an expert on CoDB sports like you do with the CoP.

I think I'll start bright siding about the mid-20's+ players that will be playing for the Phillies this. Yea, that and a possibly decent rotation and a solid pen. Maybe, I'll convince myself that they can win more games than expected because it's baseball and sometimes these things happen. Or, maybe I'll just stay here on Earth like some other fan bases should be doing but aren't. Then again, I'm still living off the fat of being relevant for a while and I do remember prior to that when I was starved for something positive to look forward to. So, I can empathize a bit here, I guess. Carry on....

Not getting to me at all - you've really only succeeded in making yourself look small, antiquated and uninformed. And bitter.

No one is stopping you from brightsiding over the Phillies. We heard it for 3 years about Dom Brown. Now that was a fringe prospect, save two months a couple years back. Please feel free, if you can find something.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:

Originally posted by Ninetynine5.0:

Burrs, Lagaras is not willie Mays, but he is probably the best defensive CF in MLB right now. Dont be bitter - you had a great run.

And you're still waiting for the Mets' run to begin. One of these years it will happen. Has to, right?

and whose bitter? I just get a kick out of brightsiding over a fringe prospect, who exceeded expectations one year, and will ultimately come back to Earth. He has a snatch hair more power than Ben Revere and got on base less. Strikes out a lot, barely walks, and doesn't really steal bases. But by all means, splash the keyboards over a couple of nice catches.

By baseball people do you mean, do you mean you?

 

[wcburrs87]

No, I mean by whatever baseball people that do that stuff. He was a mid-level prospect for the most part, not even a top 10 organizational player.

Are you going to explain to me how runs saved are measured? Not small-minded at all. I just don't swear by advanced metrics, especially defensively.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:

No, I mean by whatever baseball people that do that stuff. He was a mid-level prospect for the most part, not even a top 10 organizational player.

Are you going to explain to me how runs saved are measured? Not small-minded at all. I just don't swear by advanced metrics, especially defensively.

Oh I see, but I am sure you can see how I was confused - you did not mention 'baseball people' in your original statement at all. It seemed like it came form you, because you didn't cite any other source, but it makes sense since you have not really seen him play and don't know much about him.

I am a little surprised a guy like you doesnt value advanced metrics, particularly in baseball where they are most common. You certainly like them for basketball.

Anyway, defensive runs saved is based on a few things, but mostly it is based on the plays a certain player makes that other players would not, based on percentages. For example, they calculate that balls hit to a spot
X with hang time Y are hits 76 percent (or whatever %) of the time over the past
calendar year. Lagares has taken away hits that fall upwards of 98% of the time.

There is also the arm factor. The season where he lead the league in OF assists, opponents took an extra base (went first to third or second
to home on a single, or went first to home on a double) on 42%of hits that Lagares fielded. A year later, that number dropped to 35
percent. Late last year that was down to 24%.

Fact is, they simply do not take the base on him anymore. A quote from Freddie Gonzalez last year :

"I saw him last
year, and he was impressive; I said to my coaches, he might be the best center
fielder in the National League. Now, a year later, there's no doubt
about it."


But hey, he doesnt steal bases, and Revere gets on base more. Probably the better player.

 

[wcburrs87]

I'm not totally against advanced metrics. They're just not gospel to me, especially on the defensive side of things. I think there are factors in play that make it difficult to really judge if one guy can get to a ball over another. I think you start getting into to hang times, spots on the field, etc etc, then you're mostly over-thinking it. Like Charles said, a few geeky guys crested these analytics to make themselves part of the game. And though I think there is definitely a place for these things, I still think some of this statement is true.

I've seen him play plenty. No, not as much as people who watch every Mets' game. Yea, he can field the position. Most MLB CFs can go get a ball. Not all can throw it, ie Revere. I think a lot of splitting hairs with "range" at that level. I mean you're are literally talking about inches and 1/8 of a step.

Never said Revere was better. What I did say is that Revere is mocked on here outside of his piss-poor arm. Like no power, OB%. Well, this guy has no power to date, doesn't get on-base enough, rarely walks, and will strikeout probably 120 times over a 600 PAs.

I don't have every minor league player in baseball potential crammed into my head. Of course, I'd have to look that up and there is no need to cite everything. But.....After 2012 Baseball America had him as Mets' 31st best prospect. One evaluator said, "I had him a C/C+ level prospect.".....Another said, "He's never been considered a Top 10 prpsoect guy...."

So, he was a fringe prospect along the way here. With that said, maybe they luck out with him. Or, maybe he comes back to earth and with being good defensive OF only hits .250 ish and produces less offensively than what you saw last season when he was no better than ok. We'll see. Just a bit early to brightside here.

My initial comments were to poke at you guys and per usual you took the bait. Enjoy the season. I'm done discussing Juan Leguizamo or whatever his name is.

 

[kjbert]

Chimpat,

That's fine. But their offensive solution this off-season was Michael Cuddyer. That's it.

 

[Chimpat]

Now that I agree with you KJ. Didn't like the Cuddyer move at all. Not a good defensive player and only getting older.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:

I'm not totally against advanced metrics. They're just not gospel to me, especially on the defensive side of things. I think there are factors in play that make it difficult to really judge if one guy can get to a ball over another. I think you start getting into to hang times, spots on the field, etc etc, then you're mostly over-thinking it. Like Charles said, a few geeky guys crested these analytics to make themselves part of the game. And though I think there is definitely a place for these things, I still think some of this statement is true.

I've seen him play plenty. No, not as much as people who watch every Mets' game. Yea, he can field the position. Most MLB CFs can go get a ball. Not all can throw it, ie Revere. I think a lot of splitting hairs with "range" at that level. I mean you're are literally talking about inches and 1/8 of a step.

Never said Revere was better. What I did say is that Revere is mocked on here outside of his piss-poor arm. Like no power, OB%. Well, this guy has no power to date, doesn't get on-base enough, rarely walks, and will strikeout probably 120 times over a 600 PAs.

I don't have every minor league player in baseball potential crammed into my head. Of course, I'd have to look that up and there is no need to cite everything. But.....After 2012 Baseball America had him as Mets' 31st best prospect. One evaluator said, "I had him a C/C+ level prospect.".....Another said, "He's never been considered a Top 10 prpsoect guy...."

So, he was a fringe prospect along the way here. With that said, maybe they luck out with him. Or, maybe he comes back to earth and with being good defensive OF only hits .250 ish and produces less offensively than what you saw last season when he was no better than ok. We'll see. Just a bit early to brightside here.

My initial comments were to poke at you guys and per usual you took the bait. Enjoy the season. I'm done discussing Juan Leguizamo or whatever his name is.

Glad you clarified. It was far from clear in your oroginal statement, which was "I just get a kick out of brightsiding over a fringe prospect" - nothing about 'baseball people' or scouts or this being anyone else's opinion. Jimmy Rollins never hit about .280 in the minors nor showed any power. Wonder what he was rated. Sometimes guys get better. He's being called the best CF in the league. I;m ok with a few less SB's and on a base a little less than Ben Revere.

Still a little surprised to see you down play and poo poo defensive stats after 5 years of keyboard covering for J Roll. Lagares gets to more balls other players do no, and stops guys from advancing with his arm. Not an opinion. It's a statistical fact. Surprised you dont see the value in that.

 

[wcburrs87]

Jimmy Rollins entered MLB at age 21. Jimmy Rollins was the #1 Phillies prospect and #31 in baseball by Baseball America after 2000 season. Since you were wondering....


Also, when guys do it for over decade they typically get more street cred with me than guys who only played CF 88 games one year and 116 another.


I'll keep Revere and Lagares out of the same sentence defensively if you keep Lagares and Rollins out of your sentences.


In the meantime, enjoy the occasional great catch and when it happens don't forget to call the family. I'm moving on from this convo.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:


Jimmy Rollins entered MLB at age 21. Jimmy Rollins was the #1 Phillies prospect and #31 in baseball by Baseball America after 2000 season. Since you were wondering....

Also, when guys do it for over decade they typically get more street cred with me than guys who only played CF 88 games one year and 116 another.

I'll keep Revere and Lagares out of the same sentence defensively if you keep Lagares and Rollins out of your sentences.

In the meantime, enjoy the occasional great catch and when it happens don't forget to call the family. I'm moving on from this convo.

For the sake of accuracy, Jimmy Rollins came up in 2000. In 1999, he was no higher than #4 according to Baseball America, and was lower than that in the prior years due to his 'perceived lackadaisical attitude'.

I never compared the two players - just cited as an example of how stats on young players can improve. It wasn like I cited other stat categories to put the two as equals like you did with Revere and Lagares.

I still find it curious how you refer to guys as 'fringe prospects' even after ML success and how you choose not to value your bread and butter, stats, when it's not convenient.

 

[wcburrs87]

For the sake of accuracy Jimmy Rollins played 14 games at the end of 2000. Also, here is the site.....I didn't make it up. #1 after 2000 season and 31st in all of baseball. Scroll to the bottom half.

He was a fringe propsect because he was labeled and ranked that way. I think I saw 31st in Mets organization after 2012. Regardless, it wasn't top 10.

I didn't call them equals. I cited Revere's piss-poor offensive stats to show you that Lagares' were worse in some ways. There is a difference. G

So, players have never come out of nowhere and done well, only to come back to earth in later years? Got it...

I expect a mean culpa on the Rollins' ranking. Now, this convo is over

BA

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Safe to say Lagares would be rated higher AFTER he played major league games as well. According to the same Baseball America, Rollins never made it above #4 on the Phillies list before he was called up.


1997
Scott Rolen, 3bBobby Estalella, cDave Coggin, rhpReggie Taylor, ofAdam Eaton, rhpMarlon Anderson, 2bRyan Brannan, rhpCarlton Loewer, rhpRob Burger, rhpSteve Carver 1b/of
1998
Ryan Brannan, rhpReggie Taylor, ofBobby Estalella, cJimmy Rollins, ssCarlton Loewer, rhpDesi Relaford, ssMarlon Anderson, 2bDave Coggin, rhpAdam Eaton, rhpRob Burger, rhp
1999
Pat Burrell, 1bMarlon Anderson, 2bRandy Wolf, lhpEric Valent, ofBrad Baisley, rhpCarlos Duncan, 3bJorge Padilla, ofReggie Taylor, ofDave Coggin, rhpRyan Brannan, rhp
2000
Pat Burrell, 1b/ofBrad Baisley, rhpBrett Myers, rhpJimmy Rollins, ssEric Valent, ofDerrick Turnbow, rhpReggie Taylor, ofDoug Nickle, rhpJosue Perez, ofRyan Madson, rhp

Anyway, it proves my point for all intents. Rollins got a lot better as he matured, just like Lagares has been doing. At age 24, Rollins was a low double digit power number, .250 hitter with some speed and a glove. Good things the Phillies didn't deem him fringe prospect and think he would come back to earth.


This post was edited on 2/13 3:40 PM by Ninetynine5.0

BBA

 

[LGBlue]

 

[adp98]

Will Rube get a better package for Hamels than the next willy Mays, Saragard and a third top 100 player? I say no chance.

 

[NovaHoops2002]

Originally posted by LGBlue:

I'll see that catch and raise you with this:

Please note, I am not comparing their defensive ability at all. Revere makes circus catches because he takes terrible routes. Revere is a better offensive player right now though.

Also, Lagares is probably the top CF right now defensively, but Leonys Martin is not too far behind. Plus, Adam Jones, Trout, McCutchen etc are no slouches out there either.

 

[wcburrs87]

Safe to say that you can't play in too many ML games to get another ranking because BA still ranked him after 2000. You moved the goal popsts. Rollins ranked #1 for the Phillies and #31 in baseball by Baseball America after is brief cup of coffee, late in the season in 2000. Mea culpa, please..... Even still, the last time I checked #4 is a lot better than the #31 ranking Lagares held after 2012.

Also, Rollins made an AS game in first full year, stole 46 bases (Some speed???), led the league in triples, and had 55 extra base hits as a 22-year old. Lagares will be 26 when the season starts.

No, the Phillies wouldn't have thrown away a "fringe" prospect because Rollins never was one and his 15 years of service and very good numbers have proven as such. He was a high pick and ranked in the Top 100 of BA twice, something Lagares never got. Why? Because he's been a fringe prospect all along. But again, maybe they lucked out with him and he'll defy the odds. Sometimes that does happen. I can concede that.

Oh yea, Juan Lagares has about 2% chance of having a similar type career as Rollins has had.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by wcburrs87:
Safe to say that you can't play in too many ML games to get another ranking because BA still ranked him after 2000. You moved the goal popsts. Rollins ranked #1 for the Phillies and #31 in baseball by Baseball America after is brief cup of coffee, late in the season in 2000. Mea culpa, please..... Even still, the last time I checked #4 is a lot better than the #31 ranking Lagares held after 2012.

Also, Rollins made an AS game in first full year, stole 46 bases (Some speed???), led the league in triples, and had 55 extra base hits as a 22-year old. Lagares will be 26 when the season starts.

No, the Phillies wouldn't have thrown away a "fringe" prospect because Rollins never was one and his 15 years of service and very good numbers have proven as such. He was a high pick and ranked in the Top 100 of BA twice, something Lagares never got. Why? Because he's been a fringe prospect all along. But again, maybe they lucked out with him and he'll defy the odds. Sometimes that does happen. I can concede that.

Oh yea, Juan Lagares has about 2% chance of having a similar type career as Rollins has had.

Probably true. Almost ironic that he's already 1/3 way to Rollins GG total, Rollins' bread and butter. Anyway, there were no goal post moved - just simple observation that players get better sometimes, and silly to call gold glove winners fringe anything when managers in teh league are calling him the best at his position defensively.
Plenty of life left for 26 year old basebal players. Their entire prime basically. Interesting year ahead for the Mets. Lots to be anticipatory about.

 

[NovaNation1188]

2 Notes on the rollins/Lageres dilemma:

1) rollins had the benefit of using steroids and playing with guys who were steroid addicts for the majority of his career.
2) Once you win one GG, it's yours to lose. Even if Lagares doesn't match what he did last year, he'll probably win again. No reason to believe he won't have 7-8 gold gloves over the next decade if -- ironically -- his bat is good enough to keep him in the majors.

 

[lowry99]

The only real compelling argument for the Mets making the playoffs IMO is that the NL East stinks. The second best point is probably that their starting staff could be decent at the top. The rest of the arguments seem pretty weak. I don't think their lineup is any good. The bullpen is ok but I think they benefited quite a bit from playing in a huge park (getting smaller it sounds like this year) and not playing a lot of pressure games given that they were never in the race. I also don't think their ownership will have the guts to make a move (and spend extra money/trade prospects) if it looks like they could be close this year.

Sound like they're still at least a year away from making the playoffs. Stranger things have happened, sure, but I still don't see it. Regardless, I look forward to invoking this thread as the basis for ripping on Mets fans when they're out of it, talking about how all the Mets fans had them ticketed for the playoffs. The ongoing disucssion in the thread is a sign of true fandom from the Mets. Very admirable.

 

[Ninetynine5.0]

Originally posted by lowry99:

The only real compelling argument for the Mets making the playoffs IMO is that the NL East stinks. The second best point is probably that their starting staff could be decent at the top. The rest of the arguments seem pretty weak. I don't think their lineup is any good. The bullpen is ok but I think they benefited quite a bit from playing in a huge park (getting smaller it sounds like this year) and not playing a lot of pressure games given that they were never in the race. I also don't think their ownership will have the guts to make a move (and spend extra money/trade prospects) if it looks like they could be close this year.

Sound like they're still at least a year away from making the playoffs. Stranger things have happened, sure, but I still don't see it. Regardless, I look forward to invoking this thread as the basis for ripping on Mets fans when they're out of it, talking about how all the Mets fans had them ticketed for the playoffs. The ongoing disucssion in the thread is a sign of true fandom from the Mets. Very admirable.

I don't see a lot of bravado here, just hopeful some of the build comes together more than anything. I dont know any Met fan who is a inch past hopeful. With some of the signs (Harvey back, current ROY, Wheeler getting a little better), a little better offense for a group that was not awful last year ( 8th in NL) and some young emerging talent (Flores, Lagares). It's obviously better than recent history.

Also - the NL kind of stinks, not just the NL East. Only 6 of the 15 over .500 last year, with one being Milwaukee at 82-80. SD made some moves, Nats brought in Scherzer - but not sure who else really got any better. So that does offer some additional life to the long suffering. Especially on Feb 13. East probably weakest, yes, but the others are not exactly stacked.

Lastly, I think you will see Michael Conforto playing at this level in 2015. They seem to have stolen Dilson Herrera as well. He and Vic Black from Pirates in Marlon Byrd deadline deal. (might want to note that adp when on the train tonight thinking about Hamels trade)

 

[selmore1]

Since there is no FoyeEffect anymore, I guess I'll have to bring it up. I definitely put alot of weight into defensive statistics because all though they are not perfect, they are working with some pretty advanced data and unless the Mets coaches are the best at positioning their center field, all things are equal. Plus, the thought process makes sense.

Have you guys checked out the recent articles on pitch framing? Some really awesome stuff. It's crazy the stuff these guys can measure. The most recent one I read discussed Posada and the fat, worst hitting Molina. Molina was an absolute zero on offense (actually a negative) but his pitch framing was so good and it saved so many runs, that he was actually more valuable than Posada. Also, went into how Brad Ausmus had such a long career because of his pitch framing prowess. I believe Ausmus works for a team now and is actually analyzing these statistics, pretty cool. No links, people who are interested will find and read.