the on-going discussion regarding how Villanova lives and dies by the 3 and takes such a high percentage of 3s that it inevitably results in March disappointment prompted me to pull the 3-point shooting stats in the NCAA Tournament for the Jay Wright era.
Villanova is 14-10 in the NCAA Tournament under Jay Wright.
I was surprised to learn that the combined 3PFG % over those 24 games was .300 .... it actually comes to .2996 but with the round off - you get a nice, even 30% shooting from beyond the arc. Which of course is below the .333 you have to shoot in order to get the same bang for the buck as you do shooting .500 from 2PFG range.
In the 24 NCAA Tournament games, 37.2% of all Wildcat FG attempts have been from three-point range.
Most 3PFG attempts in a game - 31 against UConn (2014 Loss)
Least 3PFG attempts in a game - 11 against Florida (2005 Win)
Most makes - 11 (UConn in 2014 and Lafayette in 2015)
Least makes - 3 (FL in 2005 (W) and Kansas ('08, L)
Villanova shot .345 at Wells Fargo Center in NCAA play
Villanova shot .290 in all other arenas combined in NCAA play
Villanova shot 50% from three in Tampa/St. Pete during the first two rounds of the 2008 NCAAs (Clemson & Siena wins). 26-13.
If you remove those two games and the Wells Fargo games from the equation then you have Villanova going 8-10 in the other 18 NCAA Tournament games while shooting 111-401 (.277) from three-point range.
Villanova has won all four NCAA games in which it shot over .370 from three-point range (.538, .500, .474, and .462) (Clemson, Lafayette, Arizona, Siena).
Amazingly, Villanova is 6-1 in NCAA games under Jay Wright when shooting between .200 and .300 from three-point range (losing only to UNC in 2005 while beating New Mex, Robert Morris, Florida, Duke, and BC (.211 in that game).
Villanova is 1-4 in NCAA games under Jay Wright when shooting below .200 from three-point range (yes, amazingly they won one of those (and yes, it has happened in 20.8% of the overall games) Results: beat Milwaukee (.174) and lost to UNC ('09 & '13), Kansas and Florida (.174). The two .174 games were both 4-23 performances.
Villanova is 3-5 in games when shooting between .300 and .368 from three. Beat American, UCLA and Pitt and lost to St. Mary's, UConn, KY, NC St, and George Mason.
Interestingly, the NC State 3-point percentage was the 9th best mark in the 24 games. It tied for 5th highest game in terms of percentage of FGs shot from behind the 3-pt line. The 45.9% threes taken tied with the loss to UNC in 2005. I don't recall anyone complaining the Cats took too many threes nor missed too many threes in that one even though 8-29 was the result compared to 9-29 against NC State. The phantom travel call against A-Ray was the easy scapegoat and took the focus away from quality of shots.
There were two games where the Cats took >60% of FG attempts from beyond the arc - the Lafayette win last year (.629) and the UConn loss the year before (.608). Those happened to be the two games with the most makes - 11. 11-22 against Leopards and 11-31 against Huskies.
Overall, Villanova is 4-4 in NCAA Tournament games in which the Cats took >40% of their FG attempts from three-point range and 5-5 in games above the "average" percentage of shots taken from 3 in all 24 games.
Villanova is 4-2 in NCAA Tournament games in which they took <30% of their shots from deep - beating Clemson, Duke, Siena and Florida and losing to Kansas and St. Mary's.
The Cats are 5-5 in games taking less than 35% of shots from three-point range.
'Nova is 5-0 when taking between 35 and 38% of shots from three-point range (that looks to be the sweet-spot).
I don't see any strong correlation between taking a high or low percentage of shots from beyond the arc and winning or losing NCAA Tournament games.
Shooting REALLY POORLY or REALLY WELL does seem to have a direct correlation to Winning and Losing - but, interestingly, Villanova is 7-5 in NCAA games when shooting BELOW .290 from beyond the arc and also 7-5 when above .290.
The only game when Villanova shot exactly .300 was against Pitt - the win to get to the Final Four.
If there is some other slice of this data that would interest you - let me know.
Villanova is 14-10 in the NCAA Tournament under Jay Wright.
I was surprised to learn that the combined 3PFG % over those 24 games was .300 .... it actually comes to .2996 but with the round off - you get a nice, even 30% shooting from beyond the arc. Which of course is below the .333 you have to shoot in order to get the same bang for the buck as you do shooting .500 from 2PFG range.
In the 24 NCAA Tournament games, 37.2% of all Wildcat FG attempts have been from three-point range.
Most 3PFG attempts in a game - 31 against UConn (2014 Loss)
Least 3PFG attempts in a game - 11 against Florida (2005 Win)
Most makes - 11 (UConn in 2014 and Lafayette in 2015)
Least makes - 3 (FL in 2005 (W) and Kansas ('08, L)
Villanova shot .345 at Wells Fargo Center in NCAA play
Villanova shot .290 in all other arenas combined in NCAA play
Villanova shot 50% from three in Tampa/St. Pete during the first two rounds of the 2008 NCAAs (Clemson & Siena wins). 26-13.
If you remove those two games and the Wells Fargo games from the equation then you have Villanova going 8-10 in the other 18 NCAA Tournament games while shooting 111-401 (.277) from three-point range.
Villanova has won all four NCAA games in which it shot over .370 from three-point range (.538, .500, .474, and .462) (Clemson, Lafayette, Arizona, Siena).
Amazingly, Villanova is 6-1 in NCAA games under Jay Wright when shooting between .200 and .300 from three-point range (losing only to UNC in 2005 while beating New Mex, Robert Morris, Florida, Duke, and BC (.211 in that game).
Villanova is 1-4 in NCAA games under Jay Wright when shooting below .200 from three-point range (yes, amazingly they won one of those (and yes, it has happened in 20.8% of the overall games) Results: beat Milwaukee (.174) and lost to UNC ('09 & '13), Kansas and Florida (.174). The two .174 games were both 4-23 performances.
Villanova is 3-5 in games when shooting between .300 and .368 from three. Beat American, UCLA and Pitt and lost to St. Mary's, UConn, KY, NC St, and George Mason.
Interestingly, the NC State 3-point percentage was the 9th best mark in the 24 games. It tied for 5th highest game in terms of percentage of FGs shot from behind the 3-pt line. The 45.9% threes taken tied with the loss to UNC in 2005. I don't recall anyone complaining the Cats took too many threes nor missed too many threes in that one even though 8-29 was the result compared to 9-29 against NC State. The phantom travel call against A-Ray was the easy scapegoat and took the focus away from quality of shots.
There were two games where the Cats took >60% of FG attempts from beyond the arc - the Lafayette win last year (.629) and the UConn loss the year before (.608). Those happened to be the two games with the most makes - 11. 11-22 against Leopards and 11-31 against Huskies.
Overall, Villanova is 4-4 in NCAA Tournament games in which the Cats took >40% of their FG attempts from three-point range and 5-5 in games above the "average" percentage of shots taken from 3 in all 24 games.
Villanova is 4-2 in NCAA Tournament games in which they took <30% of their shots from deep - beating Clemson, Duke, Siena and Florida and losing to Kansas and St. Mary's.
The Cats are 5-5 in games taking less than 35% of shots from three-point range.
'Nova is 5-0 when taking between 35 and 38% of shots from three-point range (that looks to be the sweet-spot).
I don't see any strong correlation between taking a high or low percentage of shots from beyond the arc and winning or losing NCAA Tournament games.
Shooting REALLY POORLY or REALLY WELL does seem to have a direct correlation to Winning and Losing - but, interestingly, Villanova is 7-5 in NCAA games when shooting BELOW .290 from beyond the arc and also 7-5 when above .290.
The only game when Villanova shot exactly .300 was against Pitt - the win to get to the Final Four.
If there is some other slice of this data that would interest you - let me know.
