A little surprised with the men. Didn't realize that G'town was so much better. Figured Corbusier was in the same range as Warnick. Reminds me of several years ago when men had four really good guys and lacked a fifth. Women are about where they should be. Burda is good. Where is Williams?
Yes, it seems as though Villanova men will go only so far this year as their #5. Georgetown is
very deep (at Paul Short on Friday they had 9 guys home before Villanova's #5 crossed the line), but only 5 guys count and Villanova can still rebound if Corbusier and Warnick stay within 5-10 seconds of each other (and if they don't get too far detached from Rob Denault). But if Villanova's #4 and/or #5 get detached (as #5 was at Paul Short -- a full 32 seconds behind Warnick at #4), then there will be trouble.
Looking back at last year's results, Corbusier consistently ran about 20 seconds behind Warnick:
- Washington Invitational: Warnick 24:08; Corbusier 24:31 = 23 second gap
- Princeton: Warnick 24:20; Corbusier 24:42 = 22 second gap
- Big East: Warnick 24:16; Corbusier 24:38 = 22 second gap
- NCAA Regional: Warnick 30:33; Corbusier 30:50 = 17 second gap
- NCAA Nationals: Warnick 31:46; Corbusier 31:59 = 13 second gap
Hypothetically, at Paul Short on Friday if Corbusier had run his usual 20 seconds (instead of 32) behind Warnick, Villanova still does not beat Georgetown -- it would have been Georgetown (37), Villanova (45). Still, Villanova's 1-5 spread of 55 seconds was the largest of any of the top 9 teams (Georgetown's 1-5 was 25 seconds, and its 1-7 was only 34 seconds).
Also, looking at the Open race (where Villanova's frosh ran), despite Comber (25:07) & Marston (25:10) again looking very good (and with Wetzel still working through some minor physical issues), there don't seem to be any potential remedies there for this year. Corbusier was still 17 and 20 seconds faster at Paul Short than Comber and Marston, respectively. Given Marcus's history with frosh, count on those guys to be redshirted. So, it is what it is.
Bottom line, Villanova's 3-4 gap (15 seconds between Denault & Warnick) and the 4-5 gap (32 seconds between Warnick & Corbusier) were too large to beat Georgetown on Friday.
We'll get more evidence at the Princeton meet. That being said, Georgetown is very good.