After yesterday where EVERYTHING broke against Villanova, I have spent hours pondering this and taken a fresh look....I am more confused than ever....
1) Two Decks (and others) "top seeding was decided yesterday afternoon theory" could be true....if so Villanova stays on the #1 seed line and has a 50% chance of getting Philly....
After the Seton Hall game my logic (with some pro-Villanova bias) agrees with the concept. Playing a rival (and legitimate top half of the bracket team) for the third time, playing three days in a row, with a gimpy center and having a fantastic basketball game come down to 30 frantic seconds complete with disputed calls/non calls really says next to nothing about the "body of work" theory that the Committee espouses. For other non Villanova examples see whether Darnell Valentine misses a FT and Melo Trimble miss a contested driving layup or Buddy Heild's 5/100ths of a second miracle bank shot waived off and you get the logic....that is how Tournaments get decided.... but not BODY OF WORK. It is also why regular season championships are more meaningful than conference tournaments.
2) So assuming the Committee (either had contingencies in place...more possible with today's computer capabilities) ) or were up half the night or early this morning and those games mattered.....Editorial Comment: the talking heads, bracketologists, and sportswriters are not on the Committee and have a built in conflict of interest favoring over valuing these results because if it was already decided yesterday afternoon...there would be little result to listen to them, check their websites every two hours or watch the next game on TV if your dog is not impacted by that fight.....
Here is some more analysis....
Kansas is overall #1 (Chicago)
North Carolina is overall #2 (probably Philly...maybe Louisville)....the Heels won both the ACC regular season AND ACC Tourney...end of discussion....
Oregon is the #1 seed out West.....the Ducks won both the PAC 12 regular season and Tournament and just blew out the #2 seed by 31 points....the Ducks are now #2 in the RPI with a #3 SOS....they have 12 top 50 wins......I share the PAC 12 skepticism....who have these teams beaten? when was the last time anybody out there won it or anybody but Arizona or UCLA made any noise in the Dance....but if you believe the numbers...that is a league with 7 bids coming (all Top 50 RPI) and 11 of the 12 teams are in the Top 100....the arguments for and against whether "it is real" mirror the arguments for and against the Big East...lots of good teams but where are the wins over NC, Duke, UVA, Louisville, Kansas, Oklahoma, Michigan St???
And the other #1 seed is?
I don't know.....
Virginia....If you want quality of victories. (NC, Villanova, WVU, Louisville and Miami 2x each, Cal) ...but the Cavaliers did NOT win either the ACC season or Tournament (despite home crowd advantage in DC), have a mediocre road record and too many bad losses.
Michigan State....if you love the eye test, believe in the B1G, discount a couple of losses without Valentine, love momentum, and the win over Kansas.....but they finished 2 games behind a nothing special Indiana team in the B1G season and may or may not win the B1G Tourney (will the Committee wait that long to decide?)....their RPI trails the other contenders and the SOS is surprisingly weak in the 70s...
Villanova....if you are looking for consistency....the Cats #4 RPI and Kenpom, BE regular season title, run to the BET Final (with controversial ending), excellent road record, solid SOS, not one bad loss.....but when they played elite competition they did not get enough quality wins.
Location:
Just as crazy.....
Is sending Villanova to Philly as a #2 seed a reward (or consolation prize) for Villanova or an "unfair penalty" to the top seed?
Will the Committee strictly follow mileage (or consider the totality of moving several teams around and/or factor in conference markets)?
Does the Committee strictly follow the s curve for two seeds or not?
(Some years they claim to and send eastern teams West, sometimes they put the twos closest to home, and sometimes they adjust to avoid coast to coast travel only)
Will bracket guidelines of keeping the top 3 teams from a conference in different regions come into play....example if both Oklahoma and WVU are #2 seeds and neither can go to Chicago with Kansas, and NC and UVA can't be together and Oregon is going to be in the West.....Villanova could wind up in Chicago or Louisville by default
I am not sure where Villanova will go and whether they are a #1 seed....my guess is a #2 seed...still 50/50% on Philly..doubtful in Anaheim...
By the way....this is much more relaxing than the days of worrying about whether Memphis is going to steal our bid this afternoon or whether the Committee will pick Wichita St., Monmouth, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Akron, Valpo instead of middle of the pack power conference teams.....I gladly leave those worries to our wonderfully scummy rivals from Pitt and Syracuse this year.