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The Open

nardibynature123

VUSports.com All-American
May 5, 2014
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Spieth's to lose? How is Woods that high?

Player Odds to Win
Jordan Spieth 9/2
Dustin Johnson 12/1
Rickie Fowler 16/1
Justin Rose 18/1
Henrik Stenson 20/1
Tiger Woods 20/1
Adam Scott 22/1
Louis Oosthuizen 22/1
Jason Day 28/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
Bubba Watson 33/1
Paul Casey 33/1
Phil Mickelson 33/1
Sergio Garcia 33/1
Martin Kaymer 35/1
Shane Lowry 35/1
Branden Grace 40/1
 
Woods can go all 72 holes without hitting driver, thats why he is 20/1, he has won there two times and id give him as good a shot as anyone not named Spieth.
 
he had a decent tourney two weeks ago and finished -7 under after 4 rounds. St Andrews is totally different style of golf , the fairways are rock hard but the greens are slow. tiger will be fine if he can keep it out of the high stuff.
 
his place didnt matter, he was -7 , that was an improvement , yes its an easy course but he wasnt looking to win. i guess we will find out who is eating their words in a few days.
 
Woods can go all 72 holes without hitting driver, thats why he is 20/1, he has won there two times and id give him as good a shot as anyone not named Spieth.
Weren't you the guy who said he was toast as he shot 85 during the Memorial tournament?
 
i have repeatedly said he can only win the British Open. he cant win any other major because he cant drive the ball. American golf he is toast, done, finished cause you need driver. British Open he can win every year because he can hit irons all day long.
 
i dont even like tiger a little bit, id rather see him not win ever again. id like to see Phil get one more major or DJ or Rickie break through.
 
Tiger's played in 7 tournaments this year, he's been over par in 2, missed the cut in 2, was under par in 2, and with drew in 1. He's just not playing well this year and he's not going to turn it around in a major championship. Other than name the fact his name is Tiger Woods, I just can't see him making a run at this Open Championship.

Its Spieth's to lose. He may or may not be a robot.
 
Tiger being in the top 6 of odds to win is beyond comical.
 
Was at my friend's apartment last night and he just picked up the newest PGA video game for the PS4. It was surreal not seeing Tiger Woods on the cover. Even moreso when we discovered you can't even play as him.

This may have been the case for a few years - I don't follow what EA sports does that closely - but Tiger's career arc will still be a great story 50 years from now.
 
Spieth would be only 2nd player to win Masters, US Open and British Open in same year (Ben Hogan).
 
the scary thing about Hogan was he never played in the Open, then the one time he went over and played he won it. first and last time playing and he wins it. he wasnt able to play in the PGA Champ cause it was the same week as the British Open that year (1953), oh yeah he won $1,400 for his win. whats the winner get now? $2M?
 
he had a decent tourney two weeks ago and finished -7 under after 4 rounds. St Andrews is totally different style of golf , the fairways are rock hard but the greens are slow. tiger will be fine if he can keep it out of the high stuff.
+5 through 11. I'm not watching, so I don't know if he's been in the high stuff or not.
 
Was at my friend's apartment last night and he just picked up the newest PGA video game for the PS4. It was surreal not seeing Tiger Woods on the cover. Even moreso when we discovered you can't even play as him.

This may have been the case for a few years - I don't follow what EA sports does that closely - but Tiger's career arc will still be a great story 50 years from now.
those are the three real majors - any clown can win the PGA

Quite obviously I have never see Spieth in person, but I saw Hogan play about fifteen rounds. Both seem to have
the same level of discipline and course management. I have just pulled out my yardage book from the Old Course which
I never used since I had a great caddie. The book is beautifully done.
 
Interesting names at the top right now - Lawrie, Schwartzel, Goosen
 
Have we ever seen a sports figure drop from being the best in the world as much as Tiger has? Currently he has a #241 world ranking. Scoring average 73.0. He has two tour victories in the last 5 years (both in 2013). In his prime he finished in the top-10 in almost every tournament he played! This is unreal.
 
Have we ever seen a sports figure drop from being the best in the world as much as Tiger has?
599x405
 
More likely to happen tomorrow:

Tiger withdraws with an injury
Tiger plays out the round and misses the cut
Tiger plays out the round and makes the cut
 
Great leaderboard. I really wanted to see Tiger get to 17 majors, as it would make every one thereafter more exciting. Not gonna happen.
 
Certainly could be correct.

As you all know, ranking the majors by difficulty is an issue near and dear to my heart (do give a damn) so I decided to at least take a cursory look at the numbers. Liz will tell you you can get the maths to say whatever you want, which is true, but I tried to retain some objectivity by keeping it simple. Here goes…

The Wikipedis has Major Champions by World Rankings. Easy to get the stats for the winners (AVG, SD, Worst Three);

Masters 15.3 (+/- 17.2) #69, #56, #36

US Open 25.4 (+/- 27.3) #99, #90, #80

Open 39.7 (+/- 78.7) #396, #159, #109

PGA 37.2 (+/- 49.6) #169, #168, #110

So there's certainly a case to be made the The Open is really the "clown" show. There are innumerable circumstances entwined in this, just a few…

1. Hale Irwin was #90 winning US Open in 1990, but that was his third US Open title.
2. Winners rise to the top at St Andrews. Raises the question of whether certain "rotation" courses can be outliers in the overall analysis, both ways.
3. Tom Watson went to playoff at Open at age 59. It's a gr8 story, but I don't think that's possible at any of the other three championships.

Note: If you remove the "biggest" clown…Ben Curtis at #396, the Open is third;

Masters 13.4
US Open 22.8
Open 27.0
PGA 32.3

4. The biggest PGA "clown" was Shaun Micheel at #169. The second biggest PGA "clown" was John Daly at #168, a two time major champion.

The point I made in a previous blog post is that an Indian/Chinese statistician could knock this out of the park on his lunch break. Need more numbers, like the ranking of all the finishers. Need to cull the data (remove all the amateurs and aging green jackets etc).

Would be simple. The GolfChannel or Golf Digest could probably solve this for about a grand if they posted it to a job board.

Selectivity in determiningthe field in the first place is a factor too.
there have been some former Masters Champs that took the lifetime exemption to the point of absurdity.
Ben Curtis was an outlier data point and should be removed from the analysis.
Using world ranking may be somewhat flawed because I suspect it is a little biased towards PGA tour wins counting more.
 
And this is why you can get numbers to say anything you want. It may or may not be valid, but it certainly introduces bias when you want to delete the data (Curtis) that doesn't support your thesis.
 
And this is why you can get numbers to say anything you want. It may or may not be valid, but it certainly introduces bias when you want to delete the data (Curtis) that doesn't support your thesis.

I was kidding about taking him out - obviously even though he was a fluke he should stay in the calculations.
 
Leaders:

Dustin Johnson

-7

Jason Day

-6

Retief Goosen

-6

Zach Johnson

-6

Paul Lawrie

-6

Robert Streb

-6

Danny Willett

-6

Kevin Na

-5

Jordan Niebrugge

-5

Louis Oosthuizen

-5

Charl Schwartzel

-5

Jordan Spieth

-5
 
i have repeatedly said he can only win the British Open. he cant win any other major because he cant drive the ball. American golf he is toast, done, finished cause you need driver. British Open he can win every year because he can hit irons all day long.
Bump.

John Daly is 5 shots better than Woods.
 
i was way off on woods. i really thought he would have a good tourney, all the announcers are saying on the range he looks great but cant bring it to the course.s

i have never seen a player of his level fall flat on his face so quickly.
 
Adam Scott throws up a 67 to get to -7 after rd 2. Phil shoots even par and is -2 after 2 and probably out of contention.
 
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