UFC

[gldendog]

I've seen little to suggest he can stop the wrestling of any of these guys - Edgar, RDA, Alvarez, Cerrone, Khabib. Until I see he can keep these guys from pressing him up against the face or getting him on his back I'll have serious doubts he can beat any of them. I wouldn't even pick him to beat Ferguson right now. But at least he can compete in this division. At 170 he gets assaulted by all the top guys there. Not even a question.

 

[dirtyd]

Agreed ND. Problem is, he knows beating up Frankie will be tough.

The second he loses to Frankie, he will finally be exposed. Then less money for the 155/super fights.

They are hiding him from Frankie and cashing in on the Super Fight BS. He gets waxed by Diaz again? No problem. He still has the 145 belt... can make the excuses AGAIN about be man enough to move up 25 pounds... etc.

Then go back and get an easier match-up vs Aldo. Now we are talking another year until Edgar gets his overdue shot. Shit, he beats Aldo, then maybe they gift him another 155 shot for a huge payday while Edgar continues to sit on the sidelines.

 

[NickleDimer]

I don't have a bleeding heart for Edgar. He already got pummeled by Aldo and he was injured recently when he got the call. He should get a shot within the next year though.

 

[dirtyd]

Got pummeled by Aldo? You saw a different fight than I did hoss.

Anyways, it's not just about Edgar. It's the fact that McGregor hasn't even defended his belt ONCE. But now he will have a second fight outside of his division. And that's coming off a loss. Although I believe Edgar deserves the shot (obviously), I'd be fine ALdo getting the rematch at this point. Just defend your title one time b4 moving back up for the bigger paydays.

 

[NickleDimer]

Relax. Connor won the belt 3 months ago and you're angry he hasn't defended it.

 

[dirtyd]

I don't appreciate your tone

 

[NickleDimer]

Connor/Fiaz rematch. With Frankie/Aldo fighting for an interim belt. I'll take it.

 

[gldendog]

Connor/Fiaz rematch. With Frankie/Aldo fighting for an interim belt. I'll take it.

That UFC 200 card is gonna be an expensive ass PPV. Good thing I'll be streaming it for free as usual.

Conor-Diaz 2 at 170 (big mistake McG)
Aldo-Edgar
Cain-Browne (easy win for Cain if we doesn't hurt himself before then)
Hendricks-Gastelum
Mousasi-Brunson

Sheesh.

 

[dirtyd]

Yes. Great card. I'll be in LV for my annual pilgrimage that weekend; can't wait to see how much I pay for a ticket. Nosebleeds here I come.

Mindboggling that 5Dimes opened Conor -170 a few days ago. Bad, bad odds. I thought it would be the opposite. Nate now -125. I have him locked-in at +120.

 

[gldendog]

Diaz at + anything is a good bet judging by the first fight. Conor will probably be better prepared for the weight this time. And probably pick his shots better as well, going for points instead a KO. But Diaz will actually have a camp this time. He will still have that granite chin and BJJ and wrestling base. If Nate is not fancying things on the feet I think he knows he can get this fight to the ground if he wants to - and end it at a moments notice.

 

[NickleDimer]

Are they really going to jack the price up for 200? In what planet is Conor even close to favored over Diaz? Diaz beat him at what he does best and didn't even get into much wrestling or jiu jitsu.

 

[gldendog]

Are they really going to jack the price up for 200? In what planet is Conor even close to favored over Diaz? Diaz beat him at what he does best and didn't even get into much wrestling or jiu jitsu.

The planet of crazy Irishmen who will blindly bet on Conor while balls deep in alcohol.

 

[NickleDimer]

The planet of crazy Irishmen who will blindly bet on Conor while balls deep in alcohol.

Do they bet at US sports books? Or does the money just go wherever the best odds are?

 

[dirtyd]

Crazy drunk Irish have no impact on those odds. Maybe in Ireland.

ND, I was thinking the same thing. I was thinking Diaz -160 to -180.

My friend who is works in the biz said Conor would be favored about -160. I axed him if he'd give me +120; he obliged.

Two days later Conor opens -170 at 5Dimes (they open MMA earliest 99% of time). I was shocked.

Obviously other were as well as Diaz is now the rightful, but small favorite.

Early sharp $ obviously hit Diaz. Nothing to do with drunk Irish

 

[NickleDimer]

Unfathomable. The larger man. With the better chin. And better ground game. And better cardio. Who just won the first match. Opens at -170? Must have been a "glitch".

 

[gldendog]

Unfathomable. The larger man. With the better chin. And better ground game. And better cardio. Who just won the first match. Opens at -170? Must have been a "glitch".

Conor is mainstream. He's on the cover of video games. He's a face of the company. Casuals will bet on him because he's brash and familiar and shoved in their faces. The books are trying to get money on both sides. They know they can count on randoms betting on Conor because of his media push. Diaz is now favored by the way. As he should be. The smart $ is on him. But if you dont think an entire country betting on Conor out of fandom exists, you're kidding yourself. Books know they can count on that money coming in on one side. It's just a small part of it, but it is a part of it.

 

[dirtyd]

Books set the odds to be sharp as possible. They aren't trying to balance the book like people think. Nope.

5D opened Conor the favorite b/c they (kalikas) thought he should have been. Not because he thought more people will bet McGregor.

Even if so, the odds would not have moved so drastically in one day. Hardly anyone betting that early, except lots of sharp action.

Horrible opener from 5D. But they adjusted quick; again, off of sharp action. Their opener had nothing to do with anticipating lots of McGregor action. If Diaz remained a dog, books would have buried on him; video game covers for Conor or not. Ronda Rousey is about as mainstream as they come and books always buried on her opponent... same with GSP back in the day... Jon Jones... etc.

 

[gldendog]

What do you think about...

Maia-Brown
Reem-AA
Rockhold-Weidman2
Glover-Rashad

 

[gldendog]

Cormier pulled.

Great.

 

[NickleDimer]

Is Rumble ready?

maybe they'll just go with Nick Diaz at a catch weight any time someone gets injured from now on.

 

[SnottieDrippen]

I'm not a gambler really - what does sharp action mean? Intelligent bets made far in advance to take advantage of inaccurate odds?

 

[dirtyd]

I'm not a gambler really - what does sharp action mean? Intelligent bets made far in advance to take advantage of inaccurate odds?

A sharp bettor is a pro. +ev bettors (google it). Long term winners. Always getting the best of the number. They betting +3 when it closes +2.5. When they bet (doesn't matter what), the books respect their action and move the number accordingly (who gives a fck who the public is backing).

 

[dirtyd]

What do you think about...

Maia-Brown
Reem-AA
Rockhold-Weidman2
Glover-Rashad

Huge Matt Brown fan. Always love his fights, but Hendricks took him down with aplomb. Can't see why Maia doesn't do the same and make love to him for 15 minutos. If it were a 5-rounder, there might be some value on the Immortal one... not in a 3-rounder. I'll be rooting for Brown, but can't back him, nor will I lay the price (as of now).

I think there is some value on the Pitbull at almost 2-1. Reem has looked better his last couple of outings, but still has a suspect chin. One of those fights where the first dude that lands can get the KO. Cant lay Reem at that price IMO. Dog or nothing.

No play at these odds. Couldn't figure that fight out the first time they fought. Still can't. Sharp number. I'll root for The Chris (rockhold a douche).

Dang Rashad looked like dogshit vs Bader. If he used his wrestling once in a while I'd be more confident, but he doesn't. Glover over the hill, but should be able to win a boxing match, right? Hard to lay -200 on Glover though. Sidelines unless there is a drastic move in the number.

Stuff I have my eye on...

Black beast opened -140. Got a boner. Now I see he is -180 everywhere. Boner gone. Probably still a play. You can tap Zag's chin with a toothpick and knock him out. Black Beast hits hard fool.

Ive made a couple bucks off of Whitaker lately, but might fade him vs Natal at that price. Holding for a better numero.

Like Jeremy Stephens. Tough SOB. Barrao moving up + has taken some recent beatings.

Bobby Green has some value me thinks.

Gadelha - yup

Lauzon at pick em or better. Should be a fun fight regardless

Monitoring Brunson.

Now proceed and fade my picks and make some nice $ as I have been in a bit of rut as of late.

 

[NickleDimer]

Did SPG7 type that up for you?

 

[dirtyd]

No, but I'm drunk so that might explain the ramble. sorry

 

[NickleDimer]

Jay Wright's post game interview tonight:

 

[dirtyd]

F!

The fight I was looking forward to most is now off. Ferguson pulls out of his fight with Khabib

 

[gldendog]

Surely Dana has Cowboy on speed dial.

 

[NickleDimer]

Rashad Evans is garbage.

 

[gldendog]

Rashad Evans is garbage.

Predictable result. Can no longer hang on this level unless he gets on the proper PED regimen. If we are being honest he's probably been on one for years but with USADA having come in quite a few guys are looking awful lately. I wonder why?

 

[gldendog]

It won't be long before Khabib has that lightweight belt - if he can keep from injuring himself. I don't think anyone at lightweight can deal with him.

 

[dirtyd]

Shad needs to retire or go the Bellator route ASAP. Kimbo vs. Suga. Why not?

Khabib fight U 2.5 Rd at plus money one of the more perplexing odds in recent memory.

 

[NickleDimer]

It won't be long before Khabib has that lightweight belt - if he can keep from injuring himself. I don't think anyone at lightweight can deal with him.

The odds of him and dos Anjos being healthy at the same time are low.

 

[gldendog]

McG retired ?!

 

[NickleDimer]

Doubt it. The UFC publicity machine is getting NFL-like in their savy ways to dredge up nonsense just to stay in the news.

 

[gldendog]

Or someone got to him and told him the Diaz rematch straight away is career suicide. Could be a way to wiggle outta that and he will take a vacation and come back later in year. I highly doubt he never fights again.

 

[dirtyd]

First off, I still don't think the Diaz fight was career suicide. To me it was obvious it was the easy way out.

He wins - his stock is as high as ever.

He loses - they spin it just like last time: went up two weight classes... 25 lbs... etc. The guy is a warrior for even trying... blah, blah, blah. Still a "champ" with the 145 belt.

If he did the right thing and fights Frankie (a horrible match-up) and loses, well then his stock plummets.

Anyways, I think the dude is pretty much exposed now, both as a fighter and mentally. All this moving up and super-fight crap was a ploy to avoid defending his belt.

Dude had eight UFC fights and only one against a wreslter. How's that even possible?

Another thing...

He attended the event last week where some MMA died. I wont be surprised if he uses that as an excuse; whther legit or not.... that is if he really retires

 

[gldendog]

He's walking away from tens of millions of dollars. Who does that? We arent talking about Floyd Mayweather here. I'm certain he will fight again. At some point.

 

[NickleDimer]

I don't think a second Diaz loss is a career ended. This isn't boxing where a couple losses means you can only find matches on riverboats.

 

[dirtyd]

Oh I agree - he's not done. This is just more stalling tactics. Adds to the "mystique".

He's exposed and he knows it. He knows he can't back up his talk anymore and his stock will fall every time he loses. He is just delaying the inevitable at this point.