Yea, but I don't want 3rd tier FAs, already at their ceilings tying up valuable cap space for 4-5 years. Also, playing the perforated you have a better chance of getting a better player closer to the top of the draft. Really? This isn't understood?
Sam Hinkie as Sixers GM remembered
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Yea, but I don't want 3rd tier FAs, already at their ceilings tying up valuable cap space for 4-5 years. Also, playing the perforated you have a better chance of getting a better player closer to the top of the draft. Really? This isn't understood?
NickleDimer
Post 'Til Your Fingers Bleed
Have there only been 3rd tier FAs available over the last 3 years?
Ish Smith and Rob Covington are the best they could do in finding players outside their organization with potential? They had 3 seasons worth of minutes to take chances on anybody or anything. And they developed no one.
Who the eff cares about over the top tanking if the alternative is no better than 32 wins and less than optimal flexibility to improve your team at a better time.
Yea, I'm really feeling bad about missing the Monta Ellis era of 33 wins.
They weren't at the point to go out and spend real money on guys. That part of the process was more than likely beginning this off season.
Guys have developed. But they mostly have a roster of kids and that's why their record is what it is. The few vets they have had aren't difference makers.
Facts are not readily available when you haven't seen most of the guys even play yet! You saw Embiid? Saric? This years pick? Who Lakers pick becomes? Your foresight is impeccable. While we are at it what stocks should I buy tmrw?
Umm, if you land a James, Duncan, Jordan, Shaq it does.
Are we really going to dispute that it's easier to get a great player at the top of the draft?
Can you get a good player further down? Yes. But percentage wise it's easier the closer you are to the top.
Let's dig into the numbers a little bit.
Your thesis: to win a championship in the NBA, you need to have a once in a generational talent. To get a once in a generational talent, you need a (multiple) top 3 picks, since you can't get them as free agents.
Since the 2006 NBA Draft, not ONE top 3 pick has won an NBA title.
Further, the only team with a top 3 pick to win a title post pick was the Miami Heat (#2 in 2008 to draft Michael Beasley), when Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Alonzo Mourning, and Shaq all missed significant time (and their pick that year stunk).
I'd be scared of that list if I were you Burrs.
Your thesis: to win a championship in the NBA, you need to have a once in a generational talent. To get a once in a generational talent, you need a (multiple) top 3 picks, since you can't get them as free agents.
Since the 2006 NBA Draft, not ONE top 3 pick has won an NBA title.
Further, the only team with a top 3 pick to win a title post pick was the Miami Heat (#2 in 2008 to draft Michael Beasley), when Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Alonzo Mourning, and Shaq all missed significant time (and their pick that year stunk).
I'd be scared of that list if I were you Burrs.
And there hasn't been any of those guys in any of the previous 3 drafts and won't be in the next few. Those guys don't come around often. Which is just another flaw in the #process.
I am on board with Hinkie. He was brought in clearly to do an unpleasant thing, and he actually executed it better than could be expected. Ownership should be called out more than he should. I happen to not agree with doing what they did as a franchise - making no effort whatsoever was pretty disgraceful and embarrassing; and calling it your job doesn't make it right, but I don't really put this on Hinkie. He was just a hatchet man, similar to George Clooney in Up In The Air. Ping pong balls just as easily could have netted Wiggins and Towns. I hope the Knicks hire him. Let him take the heat for ditching Carmelo and get back in to the lottery. He's probably learned how to speed his own process up (see what I did there?)
I agree that if people are that upset then ownership should get the brunt of the criticism. They signed off and knew 100% what was going to take place. I have t read anywhere that Hinkie put a gun to any of their heads. But if that story is out there then do share. Thanks.
Let's dig into the numbers a little bit.
Your thesis: to win a championship in the NBA, you need to have a once in a generational talent. To get a once in a generational talent, you need a (multiple) top 3 picks, since you can't get them as free agents.
Since the 2006 NBA Draft, not ONE top 3 pick has won an NBA title.
Further, the only team with a top 3 pick to win a title post pick was the Miami Heat (#2 in 2008 to draft Michael Beasley), when Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Alonzo Mourning, and Shaq all missed significant time (and their pick that year stunk).
I'd be scared of that list if I were you Burrs.
More times than not you need a generational talent. Tho, the Detroit Pistons really didn't have that.
And I'm not saying you can only find it in the top three. I'm saying your odds of finding it are better closer to the top.
Also, good to see the books closed on all of these guys in their early 20's. It took Michael "****ing" Jordan 7 years. How long did it take James?
Yep, Durant, Davis, Towns, Wall, Irving, Griffin, etc blow and may never win a title. Good to know.
How do you know? And why can't some of those guys be great? Just stop. You sound like a dope saying players like Towns, Davis can't be 1st Team All NBA guys some day. It doesn't happen over night. Jesus Christ.
Wow, dropping F bombs when confronted with facts. Bizarre response.
And I wasn't closing the books on them, I'm just pointing out that the historical correlation between having a top 3 pick and NBA championships is much lower than you say. Once in every 7-10 years you get a top 3 pick who brings home a chip is my guess just eyeballing it. That's a pull of the penny slots, not a reliable business solution. Even when you get them, you have to put them in a place to succeed, not force them to lose even more.
The fact of the matter is the Sixers as a franchise overreacted to the OKC finals appearance (perhaps as well the Miami dream team around that same time) and have been a waste ever since.
Again, what would you do? Lay it out there.
ADP, how fukking good were they going to be regardless?
ADP watched 9 NBA games this year. He's an expert.
I've heard people disagree with Hinkie's methods. And there is nothing wrong that. I get why people don't like it. But at least they can reasonably state an alternative option. ADP can't even do that. Why? Because had zero clue.[/QUOTE]
One idea would have been to keep Iggy and have paid to bring Lowry home on a big multi-year deal. Compliment it with draft picks and some FAs, and that team would have been able to compete in the East ok the back of solid D. That's just a simple idea, but it was "better" to lose on purpose for 3 years. Didn't even consider Lowry bc they were tanking that year. Shameful.
One idea would have been to keep Iggy and have paid to bring Lowry home on a big multi-year deal. Compliment it with draft picks and some FAs, and that team would have been able to compete in the East ok the back of solid D. That's just a simple idea, but it was "better" to lose on purpose for 3 years. Didn't even consider Lowry bc they were tanking that year. Shameful.[/QUOTE]
Yea, except Iggy was traded by Doug Collins and Hinkie wasn't in the picture yet. Next.
Here's a fact for you. Arguably, every NBA championship team since 1980 HS had a generational type player and at least one other high level All-Star on its roster except for the 2004 Pistons.
Top picks and other top 5 picks to headline titles:
Jabbar
Magic
Worthy
Bird
McHale
Isaiah Thomas
Jordan
Olajuwon
Robinson
Duncan
Shaq
Wade
James
Bosh
Garnett
Allen
Players not top 5 but were generational:
Kobe
Dirk
Curry (will be if not already)
Julius
Moses
Pierce
Rather impressive list. Oh yea, pretty much covers every titke over the last 35 years.
And zero of them were acquired and developed through tanking. Thanks for proving my point pal.
I like it. Don't forget signing Derrick Williams, too. Had a "star" in fold and probably the runner-up in the ROY. Good for 32 wins. Yea, Knicks fan will probably remember this year because they tried.
This type plan in a NickelDimer wet dream.
Tanking comes in many forms. Admittedly, Hinkie form was extreme.
Regardless, many of them are top 5 picks. How do you get top 5 picks? Be bad. Simple math.
This is what you do. Towns could be an 1st team NBA player some day. However, that isn't in the same world as Tim Duncan. A guy who has made the team 12 times over. There is a lot of runway between making a single NBA 1st team and becoming any of the players you mentioned. I thought you understood the NBA? There isn't anyone in these past 3 drafts that will ever sniff Tim Duncan's jock or Jordan's or Shaq's. Stop it. This I can say with full confidence.
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Also, your list is absolutely terrible. You're missing Kobe and Scottie to begin with on both sides.
If you want to go as far back as Kareem, then you're saying:
46 years of drafts
Top 5 players per draft.
Yields 16 generational players
(46*5)/16=6.9% success rate, or 93.1% failure rate.
If you cut that list further to players who actually won with the teams that drafted them, then you end up with 10:
Magic
Worthy (giving you this one)
Bird
McHale
Isaiah Thomas
Jordan
Olajuwon
Robinson
Duncan
Wade
So, 10 players out of 230 leaves you at 4.3% success rate, or a 95.7% failure rate, or in other words.....
If you want to go as far back as Kareem, then you're saying:
46 years of drafts
Top 5 players per draft.
Yields 16 generational players
(46*5)/16=6.9% success rate, or 93.1% failure rate.
If you cut that list further to players who actually won with the teams that drafted them, then you end up with 10:
Magic
Worthy (giving you this one)
Bird
McHale
Isaiah Thomas
Jordan
Olajuwon
Robinson
Duncan
Wade
So, 10 players out of 230 leaves you at 4.3% success rate, or a 95.7% failure rate, or in other words.....
Not exactly going out on a limb here. Duncan is arguably the greatest PF ever. Just because a guy doesn't reach those proportions doesn't mean he can't be generational. Doesn't mean none of them won't be great enough to carry a team to a couple of titles.
Right, but those are the guys you initially cited to justify these tanks. That's half the point. There is no one to draft that is worth throwing away player development and building a foundation for 5 years. You still don't get it. You act like they wouldn't have the opportunity to get lucky with the lottery balls if they actually tried to win/build. They would still get ping pong balls.
NickleDimer
Post 'Til Your Fingers Bleed
Who in that list of legends won a title while on their rookie contract? Bird and Magic? Maybe Wade?
NickleDimer
Post 'Til Your Fingers Bleed
Only ten top 5 picks in the last 46 years have won championships with the teams that drafted them. I was starting to compile all the players Burrs left off that won chips but its too long and I have to go watch some hockey.
Also, your list is absolutely terrible. You're missing Kobe and Scottie to begin with on both sides.
If you want to go as far back as Kareem, then you're saying:
46 years of drafts
Top 5 players per draft.
Yields 16 generational players
(46*5)/16=6.9% success rate, or 93.1% failure rate.
If you cut that list further to players who actually won with the teams that drafted them, then you end up with 10:
Magic
Worthy (giving you this one)
Bird
McHale
Isaiah Thomas
Jordan
Olajuwon
Robinson
Duncan
Wade
So, 10 players out of 230 leaves you at 4.3% success rate, or a 95.7% failure rate, or in other words.....
No, I listed Kobe. On the not drafted in top 5 but still generational list. I thought of Pippen, but I forget in the process of generating list. Wasn't sure he was generational enough, but sure we can add him. Proves my point even more.
I included Jabbar because I believe he was part of 5 titles in the 80's. MVP in '85. Yea, he counts.
I like my math better. 36 season and 35 of them with at least one generational player = 97.2%
Yea, let's sit around and wait to see if a team trades a generational player or maybe sign one in their 10th season. Good plan.
The easiest way to get one is draft them yourself. Is it guaranteed? No. But maybe you draft enough good players over time that you develop a nice nucleus that makes you viable over time.
I went back to 1980. 26 of 36 teams had a top 5 pick on it that they drafted and won titles. Yea, you know Jordan won six, right? Duncan multiple. Bird multiple. McHale multiple. Magic multiple. Olajuwan multiple. Isaiah multiple. Robinson multiple. Wade multiple.
Well, I agree with this. No one said there was.
ADP, how do propose they get players? I can't believe you long for 35 win seasons.
Describe trying to win? I'm not interested with Monta Ellis types. Are you?
Oh yea, it's only been 3 years. But it would be nice to use five years of it actually was.
I get it fine.
Not sure. Why does that matter? Most players don't leave within the first 9 years anyway.